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شمال أفريقيا

Policy Analysis on شمال أفريقيا

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Brief Analysis
Libya's Uncertain Post-Electoral Direction
The impressive electoral performance of nominally liberal parties in Libya is being widely portrayed as a setback to Islamist political momentum in North Africa, but the reality is more complicated.
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  • Barak Barfi
Articles & Testimony
Who Is Jabhat al-Islah?
The legalization and participation of Salafi parties in the democratic process is one of the recent trends to emerge from the Arab uprisings. Like Egypt, which legalized three Salafi parties for its elections, and Yemen, which recently legalized its own Salafi party, Tunisia licensed the Tunisian Islamic Reform Front (Hizb
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
What's Going On in Egyptian Politics? Don't Ask Egyptians
One of the more charming aspects of post-Mubarak Egypt is the frequency with which political debate erupts spontaneously between ordinary pedestrians, who are then quickly surrounded by dozens of on-listeners eager to hear competing points and, more often than not, interject their own. These deliberative blobs are the best indication
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  • Eric Trager
Articles & Testimony
The Muslim Brotherhood Won an Election, But Is It Really Democratic?
In the stultifying, 100-plus-degree heat of Tahrir Square on Sunday, where tens of thousands gathered to hear the results of Egypt's first relatively free presidential election, the sweaty, and occasionally fainting, masses were morbidly grim. Many in the Islamist-dominant crowd were convinced that Egypt's military junta would anoint former prime
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  • Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Morsi's Victory in Egypt: Early Implications for America and the Broader Middle East
While the authority of Egypt's new president may be circumscribed, it is a mistake to underestimate his ability to influence political change at home and abroad. Before any further embrace of the Muslim Brotherhood leader, the Obama administration needs clarity on how Morsi's policies are likely to affect critical U.S. interests.
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  • Robert Satloff
An Egyptian guard inspects bomb damage near the Gaza border in Sinai
Brief Analysis
Sinai's Emergence as a Strategic Threat to Israel
If international awareness does not spur immediate Egyptian action to address the growing security vacuum and increased terrorist incidents on the border with Israel, the Sinai powder keg may soon explode.
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  • Michael Herzog
Articles & Testimony
The Rumors of Another Egyptian Revolution Are Greatly Exaggerated
On Wednesday night, thousands of demonstrators descended onto Tahrir Square to demand an end to military rule. It was the twentieth straight night of these protests, and the Muslim Brotherhood marked the occasion by calling on its hundreds of thousands of members nationwide to join an open-ended Tahrir Square sit-in
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  • Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Terror from Sinai: Global Jihadist Groups on Israel's Doorstep
Statements and a video released on an al-Qaeda website are disturbing evidence of the growing lawlessness in Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula.
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The Revolution in Egypt: Turning Point?
Sixteen months on, the transition in Egypt is not over; indeed, it is just beginning. On the eve of the Muslim Brotherhood's presidential victory, former senior Defense Department official David Schenker testified on how Washington should use its limited leverage in Cairo in the near term, offering a detailed status
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The Next Egyptian President: Likely Scenarios
Policymakers must prepare for the likelihood that Egyptian instability will continue for some time, rendering Cairo unable to continue its historic role as a major U.S. strategic partner.
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  • Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
In Their Own Words: Egyptian Presidential Candidates Morsi and Shafiq
The second round of Egypt's presidential election, slated to take place this weekend, pits Muslim Brotherhood candidate Muhammad Morsi against Ahmed Shafiq, the former air force commander who served as Hosni Mubarak's last prime minister. Although it is impossible to predict how either candidate will govern if elected, their statements
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Brief Analysis
Egypt's Shocking Legal Judgments
New unrest in prospect after high-court rulings appear to back military council.
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  • David Schenker
  • Eric Trager
Articles & Testimony
What's at Stake with Egypt Vote?
Nothing captured the imagery of change in the Middle East more than last year's demonstrations in Tahrir Square that brought down Hosni Mubarak, Egypt's president for 30 years. The sense of hope and possibility that seemed so alive in Tahrir Square made everyone in the Middle East believe there truly
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Beware of Egyptian Political Shocks
Technically, Egypt's political transition is on schedule. The first round of the presidential election was held May 23-24, the second round is set to occur June 16-17, a winner will be announced by June 21, and the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF), which has ruled the country since
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  • Eric Trager
Articles & Testimony
Why Neither of Egypt's Presidential Choices Represents Democracy
The results of the first round of voting in Egypt's presidential elections has yielded a choice in the second round between two starkly different men -- former Mubarak-era prime minister and air force general Ahmed Shafik, and Muslim Brotherhood official Mohammad Morsi. For Washington, less important than which man wins
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
The MFO Under Fire in Sinai
Deteriorating security in the Sinai Peninsula threatens not only the peacekeepers based there, but also the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty.
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy and Egypt's Presidential Runoff: Projecting Clarity, Not Disinterest
To bolster the integrity of Egypt's democratic process and preserve America's own national interests, Washington should make clear how the outcome of the presidential runoff could affect U.S.-Egyptian relations.
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  • Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
The American Media Gets an Egyptian Presidential Candidate All Wrong
Egyptian presidential candidate Abdel Monem Abouel Fotouh was a leading force in the militant Islamist student movements of the 1970s; one of the Muslim Brotherhood’s point men for aiding the mujahideen in Afghanistan during the 1980s; and a member of the Muslim Brotherhood’s Guidance Office for twenty-two years. It should
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  • Eric Trager
Brief Analysis
Libya's Elections Need More U.S. Support
Despite trepidation over Libya's upcoming elections, they offer the best way to solve the country's legitimacy crisis, and Washington should tailor its assistance accordingly.
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  • Andrew Engel
Articles & Testimony
Arab AKPs in the Making?
Can Turkey's experience in the past decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government -- blending democracy, close ties with the West, a "Muslim" foreign policy, capitalism and Islamism -- be copied by Arabs, as many claim? Probably not -- except for Tunisia. Although rooted in Turkey's Islamist movement
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  • David Pollock
  • Soner Cagaptay

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