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The Potential for Escalation in the Hizballah-Israel Conflict

The critical question of whether or not the current conflict in Lebanon will escalate to a broader regional war is being answered in two overly simple ways. One such analysis is that this is a “meltdown” with escalating violence and mounting pressures for further escalation. A second, equally simplistic view

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Jeffrey White

Ceasefire Options for Implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1559

On Wednesday, an international conference will open in Italy to discuss the state of Lebanon and explore potential formulas for an Israeli-Hizballah ceasefire. Current conditions make an immediate ceasefire unlikely, but should changing events make a ceasefire possible, one of the first priorities for the Bush administration and the international

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David Schenker

An International Stabilization Force for Lebanon:

Problems and Prospects

As diplomacy to halt the violence in Lebanon slowly gathers momentum, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has endorsed the idea of an international “stabilization force” to keep the peace, seconding proposals previously put forward by UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, British prime minister Tony Blair, and European Union foreign policy envoy

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Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Iran's Hand in Lebanon

The current crisis in Lebanon has galvanized world attention because it is generally understood that this is not a local conflict, but rather one that represents Iran’s bid to raise the stakes in the Middle East. The fact that several countries are planning to convene next week in Rome to

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David Makovsky

Articles & Testimony

Not Only Israel Is Opposed to a Ceasefire

The United States has made it clear that it is providing Israel with the requisite political breathing space to obtain its military objectives in Lebanon. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has delayed her mediation mission, and President Bush has not pressed Israel to end its military operations at this

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David Makovsky

Israel and Hizballah at War:

A Status Report

On July 19, 2006, Brig. Gen. (ret.) Moshe Yaalon, David Schenker, and Dennis Ross addressed The Washington Institute’s Special Policy Forum. General Yaalon, a distinguished military fellow at the Institute, is the former Israel Defense Forces (IDF) chief of staff. Mr. Schenker, a senior fellow in Arab politics at the

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Moshe Yaalon
David Schenker
Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

The Role of UNIFIL after an Israeli Withdrawal from South Lebanon

This article originally appeared as a chapter in the book The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon (Washington Institute, 2000). John Hillen is currently assistant secretary of state for political-military affairs. When he wrote this essay, he was serving on the U.S. Commission on National Security/21st

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Iran’s Shadow Government in Lebanon

Having come into existence by virtue of Iranian military and financial patronage, Hizballah has used massive Iranian support to transform itself from a purely military group into an armed political party that has had an enduring impact on Lebanese political life and served as an outpost of Islamic fundamentalism in

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

U.S. Should Help Construct an 'Arab Umbrella'

As someone who helped to negotiate an end to the Israeli-Hezbollah battles in 1993 and ‘96, when Katyusha rockets forced the public in northern Israel into bomb shelters and the Israeli military destroyed Lebanese infrastructure and forced Lebanese to flee the south, I can say that the Lebanese crisis is

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Lebanon's Moment to Regain Control

In 1975, Lebanese President Suleiman Franjieh warned Palestinian Liberation Organization leader Yasser Arafat that failure to discipline Palestinian radicals in the southern outskirts of Beirut would exploit Lebanon’s hospitality and plunge the country into civil war. These were famous last words. Within months, a civil war broke out that engulfed

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David Makovsky

Reactions in the Middle East to the Israel-Lebanon Crisis

The outbreak of hostilities after Hizballah’s July 12 raid into Israel, in which it captured two Israeli soldiers and killed eight others, has elicited a variety of responses from government officials and other prominent figures throughout the Middle East. Though it is not surprising to see harsh statements about Israel

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Hizballah Opens a Second Front

The capture yesterday of two Israeli soldiers (eight more were killed) in a crossborder raid by the Lebanese group Hizballah, as Israeli forces in Gaza continued to search for an Israeli soldier kidnapped last week by Hamas and to clear Qassam rocket launch sites, marked the opening of a second

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Michael Eisenstadt

Learning to Live with Resolution 1559

On June 21, 2006, Nicholas Blanford and David Schenker addressed The Washington Institute’s Special Policy Forum. Nicholas Blanford, Beirut-based correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor and Time, is the author of the forthcoming Killing Mr. Lebanon: The Assassination of Rafik Hariri and Its Impact on the Middle East. David Schenker

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David Schenker

One Year after the Cedar Revolution:

The Potential for Sunni-Shiite Conflict in Lebanon

Acting Lebanese interior minister Ahmad Fatfat arrived in Washington June 20 for his first official visit in his new capacity. The U.S. trip comes one month after a radical Sunni Islamist organization was legalized in Lebanon, and just weeks after thousands of Shiite Hizballah supporters rioted in Beirut after the

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David Schenker

Articles & Testimony

Assad State of Affairs:

Syria's Dictatorship Survives to Fight Another Day

When Hafez al-Assad was president-for-life of Syria, Washington overlooked the misdeeds of his Baathist dictatorship because it always seemed the brass ring of a comprehensive Arab-Israeli peace deal was just around the corner. Now that Assad is dead and his son Bashar nears the six-year mark of his own rule

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David Schenker

Articles & Testimony

The Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration Act of 2003:

On June 7, 2006, Institute senior fellow David Schenker testified before the House of Representatives Committee on International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia. The following is the prepared text of his remarks. President Bush signed the implementing order of the Syria Accountability and Lebanese Sovereignty Restoration

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David Schenker

Taking Aim at Syria and Hizballah:

Walid Jumblat's Brave Stance

On May 7, Lebanese Druze leader and member of parliament Walid Jumblat told reporters in Cairo that Hizballah should disarm. These comments came just four days after Jumblat offered his assistance to the Syrian opposition in establishing "a democratic and free Syria." Jumblat has always been an enigmatic and unpredictable

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David Schenker

Lebanese National Dialogue:

Avoiding the Hard Questions?

On March 22, leaders from across the Lebanese political spectrum completed another round of the ongoing National Dialogue. The talks, which started earlier this month, have touched on some of the more salient topics in Lebanese politics. Conspicuously absent from the agenda, however, has been a discussion of disarming militias

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David Schenker

Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?

As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of

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Emily Hunt

A Tale of Two Countries:

Defining Post-Syria Lebanon

When Shiite ministers recently "suspended" their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions

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