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TWI Arabic: اللغة العربية Fikra Forum

لبنان

Policy Analysis on لبنان

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Brief Analysis
Can Lebanon's March 14 Reverse the Tide?
This week, Lebanon's new national unity government is slated to announce its ministerial statement (bayan waziri), the policy document that will define Beirut's working parameters and agenda through the spring 2009 elections. For the pro-West majority March 14 coalition, the priority will be to incorporate into the statement a reference
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Military Wing Under Pressure Despite Political Gains
Hizballah has much to celebrate. With the formation of a national unity government in Lebanon last week, it is now well positioned to block any effort to dismantle its military wing. Today, the organization is celebrating the release of five Lebanese prisoners and the remains of several Hizballah and Palestinian
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  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Ending (or Deepening) the Crisis in Lebanon:
The Role of Electoral Reform
The May 25 election of Gen. Michel Suleiman as Lebanon's twelfth president was a central element of the Qatari-brokered compromise between the March 14 coalition and the Hizballah-led opposition. The agreement was greeted with relief in Washington and other international capitals, allaying fears that Lebanon was once again heading toward
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Articles & Testimony
Israel, Don't Undermine Beirut
Developments in Lebanon are being viewed with great concern in Israel. In the aftermath of Hizbullah's recent military and ostensible political victories, many Israelis are saying that Beirut has gone the way of Gaza. Lebanon is now "Hizbullahstan" -- just like Gaza, only worse. This assessment is alarmist, defeatist, and
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  • David Schenker
In-Depth Reports
Emerging Threats, Challenges, and Opportunities in the Middle East
An inside briefing on the U.S. government's current strategic assessment of the Middle East.
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  • Donald Kerr
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
Lebanese Crisis Ends:
Hizballah Victory or Temporary Truce?
On May 21, after five days of mediation, Qatari officials announced a compromise solution to the Lebanese crisis between the pro-Western government and Hizballah-led opposition backed by Iran and Syria. According to preliminary reports, the negotiations centered on presidential elections and electoral reform, yet avoided the critical issue of Hizballah's
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Showdown between Hizballah and Beirut
This week, the democratically elected, pro-Western Lebanese government took the bold and unprecedented decision to confront Hizballah. Since its election in 2005, the government had avoided direct conflict with the well-armed Shiite militant political party, but several of the organization's activities -- including apparent preparations for yet another war with
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The Damascus Arab Summit:
Arab Divisions Ensure Modest Achievements
This weekend, the much-anticipated annual Arab Summit will convene in Damascus. The run-up to the twentieth summit -- the first ever held in Damascus -- has been overshadowed by the controversy surrounding Syria's role in undermining Lebanon's presidential elections. And Damascus has exacerbated regional concerns by inviting Iran to attend
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Will the Damascus Arab Summit Be Convened?
In the Middle East, it is widely believed that Syria is obstructing the election of a new Lebanese president. Amid this crisis, many are beginning to doubt whether the next Arab League summit, scheduled to open in Damascus at month's end, will take place at all. Lebanon Crisis In key
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  • Hassan Barari
Brief Analysis
Beyond Rhetoric:
Hizballah Threats after the Mughniyeh Assassination
In response to the February 12 assassination of chief of operations Imad Mughniyeh, Hizballah has ratcheted up its threats, warnings, and saber rattling. In turn, Israel has locked down its foreign missions, put its military on heightened alert, and deployed Patriot missiles near Haifa. And in Washington, the FBI issued
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Setbacks in Arab League Mediation on Lebanon
Over the past week, Beirut has been rocked by violence yet again. On January 25, a Lebanese Internal Security Forces officer working with the UN investigation into Rafiq Hariri's assassination was killed by a car bomb. And on January 27, seven Shiite antigovernment demonstrators were killed by the Lebanese army
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  • David Schenker
In-Depth Reports
Autumn of Decisions:
A Critical Moment for American Engagement in the Middle East
The 2007 Weinberg Founders Conference explored a number of critical issues, with an eye toward the overall direction of U.S. Middle East policy as the Bush administration enters its final year in office. In keynote plenary sessions and breakout seminars, and over coffee in the hallways, a select group of
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Articles & Testimony
The Lebanon Red Line
When President George W. Bush arrives in Israel in the next few days, it is possible that Syria will be a major topic and not just the Palestinians and Iran. Damascus is one issue which Washington and Jerusalem view very differently. Those in Israel pressing for a revived Syria peace
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  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Elections in Lebanon:
Implications for Washington, Beirut, and Damascus
In the months leading up to the November 23 end of Lebanese president Emile Lahoud's term in office, political factions have been vying to choose the country's next chief executive. These elections pit candidates affiliated with the pro-West March 14 majority bloc against the Syrian-Iranian allied opposition led by Hizbballah
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  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Presidential Crisis
As the end of the Lebanese presidential term neared and then passed on November 23, domestic and international forces have ratcheted up their involvement in electing the country's new president. But the political focus of the presidential elections has shifted from democratic and constitutional ideals to concerns about preventing civil
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  • Robert Rabil
Brief Analysis
Presidential Elections in Lebanon:
Consensus or Conflagration?
On October 31, Saad Hariri, leader of the "March 14" majority bloc in the Lebanese parliament, met with opposition leader Michel Aoun, head of the Hizballah-allied Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the largest Maronite Christian party in Lebanon. Discussions focused on the September 25-November 25 presidential elections, which will decide whether
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  • David Schenker
In-Depth Reports
Israel-Hizballah-Syria:
Lessons from the Last War, Preventing the Next One
On October 20, 2007, Nicholas Blanford and Maj. Gen. Moshe Kaplinsky addressed The Washington Institute's Weinberg Founders Conference. The following is a summary of their remarks. In a civil but spirited debate, Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut correspondent who has spent much of his time reporting and following Hizballah, and Maj
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In-Depth Reports
The Struggle for Freedom and Democracy in Lebanon
On October 19, 2007, Walid Jumblatt delivered a keynote address at The Washington Institute's Weinberg Founders Conference. Mr. Jumblatt is chairman of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon, leader of the Druze community, and an outspoken ally of the "March 14" alliance. The following is an edited excerpt from his
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Brief Analysis
Hizballah's 'Big Surprise' and the Litani Line
On August 14, the anniversary of the end of last summer's Lebanon war, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel of a "big surprise" if it initiated a new conflict in the South. Analysts immediately began speculating over the nature of the promised surprise. But what is most important to note
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  • Andrew Exum
Brief Analysis
United Nations Peacekeepers in Southern Lebanon:
One Year After the War
On August 14, 2007, in a speech marking the first anniversary of the ceasefire ending the 2006 summer war, Hizballah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel of the consequences of further conflict. Addressing a mass rally in Beirut via a video link, he said: "Zionists, if you think of launching a
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  • Andrew Exum

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