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Policy Analysis
All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson
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Brief Analysis
The Crawford Summit:
High Noon for U.S.-Saudi Relations?
After declining at least two earlier invitations since January 2001, Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia is due to meet President George W. Bush for the first time this Thursday. The de facto leader of America's leading oil supplier (his elder half-brother, King Fahd, is ailing) had previously snubbed Washington's
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Simon Henderson
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Bush Administration and OPEC:
The National Energy Policy Revisited
Tomorrow's conference of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in Vienna comes at a time when higher oil prices have been reflected in increased gasoline prices over the last two months. Indeed, further price hikes are possible, particularly as talk of war with Iraq has strengthened the futures
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Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
The Saudis:
Friend or Foe?
What kind of ally is Saudi Arabia? To Americans who watch with frustration as the Saudis prevaricate on the use of military bases there, the answer is clear: They aren't acting like allies at all. This frustration is turning to outrage as details emerge of Saudi unwillingness even to run
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Qatar:
A Template for Future U.S.–Persian Gulf Relations?
This week's visit to New York and Washington by the ruler of the Persian Gulf state of Qatar is a public display of the type of relationship the United States would prefer to have with its allies in the region post-September 11: friendly, concerned, and openly cooperative. It will be
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The War against Terror:
The Caution of the Conservative Arab States of the Persian Gulf
At a meeting over the weekend in the Saudi port city of Jeddah, foreign ministers of the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf pledged "total cooperation" for international efforts to bring those responsible for the terror attacks in New York and Washington to justice. But the nuances in attitudes
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The War against Terror:
Saudi Arabia's Crucial Role
The visit to Washington this week by Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud Al Faisal is an early test of Saudi Arabia's ability and willingness to work with U.S. authorities in meeting the threat of terrorism led by Saudi dissident Osama bin Laden. Although the United States is the kingdom's strongest
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Confusing Signals out of Saudi Arabia
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
President Bush's National Energy Policy and the Middle East
The Bush administration this week launched initiatives on two fronts of U.S. concern about the Middle East: Secretary of State Colin Powell's proposals to end Arab–Israeli violence and Vice President Dick Cheney's national energy policy. While the energy policy report concentrates on domestic issues, it necessarily discusses the Middle East
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Arab Gulf Politics and Powell's Visit
As Secretary of State Colin Powell and former President George Bush celebrate the tenth anniversary of the liberation of Kuwait, for many Gulf Arabs the occasion marks a decade since Saddam Husayn's tanks put the lie to the promises of security that local leaders had made to their people. After
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Gulf Cooperation Council Defense Pact:
An Exercise in Ambiguity
January 17 marks the tenth anniversary of the start of Operation Desert Storm in the Middle East, when U.S.-led forces began the liberation of Kuwait. In that operation, the militaries of the Gulf monarchies played a minor role. At their meeting in Bahrain at the end of December, the leaders
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The ‘al-Jazeera Effect’:
Arab Satellite Television and Public Opinion
Public opinion in the West has been deeply influenced by television news pictures for several decadesin the 1960s, Vietnam was the first "television war." But in the Arab world, the violence between Palestinians and Israelis that erupted at the end of September has been the first cycle of Arab-Israeli fighting
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The OPEC Summit in Caracas:
A Testing Time for Oil
Does this week's summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, mark the return of OPEC as a force in world politics and economics? Not really, though oil market conditions this winter may put OPEC members in a powerful position. Background: OPEC's Role In
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Family Council Suggests Transition Is Imminent
The surprise announcement on June 4 of the establishment and first meeting of a Saudi royal family council indicates that the kingdom is preparing itself for a shift in full authority from the ailing King Fahd to his deputy, Crown Prince Abdullah. The change should bring to an end the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Crucial Tests Await New Saudi Oil Council
This week the major oil companies are expected to announce big increases in profits, a reflection of the current high oil prices which last week soared to their highest level since the 1991 Gulf War. But apart from benefiting shareholders and helping fill the depleted financial coffers of Middle Eastern
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Caspian Energy Accords:
A Job Half Done
The November 18 signing of a pipeline accord in the Turkish port city of Istanbul, in the presence of President Clinton, gives further momentum to the oil export link project between Baku, the capital of the Caspian littoral state of Azerbaijan, and Ceyhan, on Turkey's Mediterranean coast. Another piece of
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Pakistan, Proliferation, and the Middle East
This week's coup d'tat in Pakistan against the elected government of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has returned the Pakistani military to power just as neighboring India was installing a new government after national elections. While much attention is being focused on the immediate risk of a diplomatic confrontation between the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Saudi Succession:
The Return of King Fahd
King Fahd returned to Saudi Arabia last week after spending more than two months at his palace in southern Spain on what was described as a vacation. Because he is quite old and in poor health, Fahd is no longer the sole top decision maker of the world’s largest oil
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Desert Talk -- The New Offensive against Iraq
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's meeting today with leaders of the Iraqi opposition is part of a vigorous diplomatic confrontation between Saddam's regime and the United States, tied to maneuverings at the UN. For the next several weeks, the arguments of Baghdad and Washington are going to be deployed and
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
U.S. Caspian Policy Faces Fresh Challenges
Turkmenistan president Saparmurad Niyazov today signed an agreement with Turkey's energy and natural resources minister, Ziya Aktash, to supply Turkmen natural gas to Turkey via a trans-Caspian pipeline. Later this month, work will begin on a much-delayed oil pipeline to carry oil from fields operated by a Chevron-led consortium in
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Oil Prices and the Future of the Middle East
Oil ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are due to meet in Vienna, Austria on 23 March to agree formally on production cuts that will bolster the flagging price of oil. The current weak oil prices have benefited the industrialized economies of the world but have created
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Simon Henderson
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