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TWI Arabic: اللغة العربية Fikra Forum

الخليج وسياسة الطاقة

Policy Analysis on الخليج وسياسة الطاقة

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Brief Analysis
Estimating the Effects of Comprehensive U.S. Sanctions on Iran
Secretary of Defense Perry's statements in Bahrain today highlighting the "potential threat" of Iran's deployment of "8,000 military personnel . . . anti-ship missiles, air-defense missiles and chemical weapons" on disputed Persian Gulf islands will renew debate over imposing comprehensive economic sanctions on Iran. A key element of that debate
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  • Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
After King Fahd:
Succession in Saudi Arabia (2nd ed.)
The ruling family of Saudi Arabia, one of the United States' most important allies in the Middle East, is heading for a crisis of leadership. Despite its modern infrastructure, paid for by huge revenues from oil exports, the kingdom's political system remains rooted in tribal structures that have scarcely evolved
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  • Simon Henderson
In-Depth Reports
The Economy of Saudi Arabia:
Troubled Present, Grim Future
The kingdom of Saudi Arabia faces a grim economic future. Contrary to predictions in the late 1970s and early 1980s of rising prices for Middle Eastern oil, world oil demands and prices have followed a downward trend since 1981, resulting in a reduction in Saudi oil revenues. Since 1983 Saudi
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Brief Analysis
A Saudi Disaster Story:
Yemen's Unity by Force
The capture last week of the port city of Aden by forces loyal to President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen marked the end of the short-lived rebellion by secessionist supporters of Vice President Ali Salem al-Beidh. The outcome is a shock to the balance of power in the Arabian peninsula
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Lessons from the Helm of Central Command (CENTCOM)
On July 6, 1994, General Joseph P. Hoar, CENTCOM commander-in-chief, addressed a session of The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Introduction When General Hoar became chief-of-staff in 1988, Central Command's focus was on the Soviet Union. Operations and contingencies were planned to
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In-Depth Reports
Tourism Cooperation in the Levant
Tourism offers an opportunity to promote the economic development of the Levant, demonstrate the material rewards of peace, and forge cooperation between Israel and its neighbors. To be economically sound, however, regional cooperation must generate additional tourism, rather than redistributing existing visitors. Foreign governments and international aid agencies can encourage
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Implications of Economic Decline in Saudi Arabia
On April 14, 1994, Dr. Eliyahu Kanovsky, a professor of economics at Bar Illan University and a leading authority on Middle East economics, addressed a session of The Washington Institute's Policy Forum. Dr. Kanovsky discussed Saudi Arabia's severe economic crisis, and its implications for domestic politics and stability. The following
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Articles & Testimony
Deja Vu All Over Again? An Assessment of Iran's Military Buildup
In 1989, following a costly eight-year war with Iraq, Iran initiated a major military buildup intended to transform it into a regional power and rebuild its ravaged armed forces. Iran's buildup, coupled with indications of increased activism in its foreign policy -- including efforts to undermine the Arab-Israeli peace process
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In-Depth Reports
Peace through Entrepreneurship:
Practical Ideas from Middle Eastern Business Leaders
Even as the historic signing of the Israel-PLO Declaration of Principles on September 13, 1993 has raised hopes for an end to conflict, it has also created new challenges and opportunities for actually implementing peace in the Middle East. All the parties acknowledge that the political success of the peace
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In-Depth Reports
The Economic Consequences of the Persian Gulf War:
Accelerating OPEC's Demise
Of the many strategic interests that United States and its allies have in the Middle East, surely one of the most crucial is securing energy supplies from the region. The Gulf War of 1991 demonstrated the importance of Middle East oil in the international community’s strategic calculus. Since the oil
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In-Depth Reports
The Economic Consequences of Peace for Israel, Jordan, and the Palestinians
While economic issues have not been a driving force in the Arab-Israeli peace process in the past, they are sure to play a critically important role in the historic negotiations looming ahead. Across the wide Sinai expanse, Egypt and Israel have little to show in the way of economic ties
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  • Patrick Clawson
  • Howard Rosen
Brief Analysis
Iran and the Gulf:
Can Saddam Drag It In?
The arrival of large numbers of Iraqi planes in Iran is almost certainly another effort by Saddam Hussein to reduce Iraq's isolation and widen the war. As he explained to CNN on January 28, he views Iran as a "fellow Muslim nation" which shares his view of the confrontation as
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Scaring Saddam:
The Message Must Be Consistent
President Bush's decision to double U.S. force deployments in the Persian Gulf was designed to scare Saddam Hussein. Instead, it has frightened the American people and threatened his coercive diplomacy strategy. The President faces a difficult dilemma. He cannot persuade Saddam Hussein of American resolve without a credible threat of
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In-Depth Reports
Iraq's Economic and Military Vulnerabilities
"Will sanctions against Iraq work?" is a question too ambiguous to be useful. It leaves unspecified such key issues as what we want sanctions to accomplish and how Iraq would react if sanctions started to pinch. And, then, how much does Saddam Hussein care about what happens to Iraq's economy
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  • Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
The Gulf Crisis:
War of Peace in the Middle East?
Keynote addresses by Moshe Arens, Richard Haass, Saud Nasir Al-Sabah, and Paul Wolfowitz.
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In-Depth Reports
Kuwait's Approach to the Gulf Crisis
On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. The situation inside Kuwait is indescribable. Iraq has isolated Kuwait from the civilized world; the 1.5
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Brief Analysis
Meeting in Amman:
The Perils of Negotiation
As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible
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  • Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
OPEC Ascendant?
Another Case of Crying Wolf
A moderate run-up in oil prices in 1989 has led many oil forecasters to project large price hikes through the 1990s and a far more powerful OPEC cartel; in short another oil shock in the mid-1990s. Recent warnings from forecasters are reminiscent of the alarmist—and mistaken—predictions that followed the oil
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In-Depth Reports
Unaffordable Ambitions:
Syria's Military Build-Up and Economic Crisis
In the last decade, Syria has forcefully opposed U.S.-supported peace initiatives for Lebanon and the Arab-Israeli conflict. Syria’s inflexibility has persuaded many observers that little can be done to influence its president, Hafez al-Assad. In fact, much can be done once his vulnerabilities are understood. In this Policy Paper, Patrick
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  • Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Development Diplomacy:
U.S. Economic Assistance to the West Bank and Gaza
For more than a decade, U.S. policymakers have sought, at least indirectly, to supplement their efforts to promote political reconciliation between Israel and the Palestinians with economic support to improve the socio-economic conditions in the West Bank and Gaza. U.S. efforts have been premised on the assumption that economic progress
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  • Joyce Starr

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Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
پاتريك كلاوسون
الدكتور پاتريك كلاوسون هو زميل أقدم في برنامج الزمالة "مورنينجستار" ومستشار الأبحاث في معهد واشنطن.
Simon Henderson
سايمون هندرسون
سايمون هندرسون هو زميل أقدم في برنامج الزمالة "بيكر" ومدير "برنامج برنشتاين لشؤون الخليج وسياسة الطاقة" في معهد واشنطن، ومتخصص في شؤون الطاقة والدول العربية المحافظة في الخليج العربي.
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