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Brief Analysis
<em>Karine-A:</em>
The Strategic Implications of Iranian-Palestinian Collusion
Revelations of Iranian-Palestinian collusion to smuggle fifty tons of weapons into the hands of Yasir Arafat's Palestinian Authority (PA) through the offices of Hizballah have profound strategic implications for the Middle East. For the Bush administration, responding appropriately to the Karine-A episode may have unpleasant repercussions for relations with key
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Ecevit to Washington:
Opportunities for U.S.-Turkish Relations
Visits by Turkish prime ministers to Washington have tended in years past to be low-profile events. With imagination and boldness on the American side, the January 16 meeting between President George W. Bush and Turkish prime minister Bulent Ecevit has the potential to be a watershed in a relationship that
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Mark Parris
Brief Analysis
The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms (Part I):
Political Implications
Israeli naval commandos seized the Gaza-bound freighter Karine-A in the Red Sea last Thursday, exposing a cargo hold containing fifty tons of munitions. The seizure took place in international waters some 300 miles off of Israel's southern coast, between Sudan and Saudi Arabia. The ship's captain, Omar Akkawi, later participated
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
The Seizure of Gaza-Bound Arms (Part II):
Military Implications
Alongside the diplomatic efforts to reach a ceasefire with Israel, the Palestinian Authority (PA) has been involved—since the beginning of the second intifada—in the indigenous production of weapons and ammunition and in repeated attempts to smuggle arms on a massive scale into the territories under its control. To thwart these
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Brief Analysis
Assessing the $959 Million in Accelerated Economic Aid to Egypt
In a brief January 3 statement, the White House announced that Egypt is receiving $959 million in accelerated economic aid, the bulk of which was evidently disbursed in the closing days of 2001. While an important sign of continued U.S. support for the Hosni Mubarak government, this sudden and massive
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Hamas Ceasefire:
Historical Background, Future Foretold?
The arrival of U.S. envoy General Anthony Zinni in Jerusalem today comes during a relative lull in the terrorism and violence that has characterized the Israeli-Palestinian scene since the eruption of the al-Aqsa intifada in September 2000. This lull is at least partly due to the December 21 decision of
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Seth Wikas
In-Depth Reports
Iran's Nuclear Policy and the IAEA:
An Evaluation of Program 93+2
Thwarting Iran's ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons has been a key focus of nuclear nonproliferation efforts since the early 1990s. These efforts were given new urgency by President George W. Bush's January 29, 2002, State of the Union address, which identified Iranian nuclear weapons development as a threat that the
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Articles & Testimony
The Tehran Temptation
Should the United States seek a rapprochement with Iran? After more than two decades of enmity, this question is now very much before us. Speaking at the United Nations in early November, the Iranian president, Mohammed Khatami, announced that the "nation of Iran has no problem with the people and
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Articles & Testimony
The Other Iraq
In the safe haven of Iraqi Kurdistan, the Jews and Israel are remembered fondly, if increasingly vaguely. "They call that lack of restraint?" the former Iraqi army officer exclaimed, while watching the BBC's coverage of the Al-Aqsa Intifada on satellite TV last winter. "If this demonstration were held in Baghdad
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Brief Analysis
Assessing Arafat's Performance in the Fight against Terror
On December 16, Palestinian television broadcast a pre-recorded speech in Arabic by Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasir Arafat calling for "a complete cessation of any operation or actions, especially suicide attacks." Since he said many of the right words, it is important to clarify what would constitute a "100 percent
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Inspections in Iraq:
A Test for Saddam, Not a Good Solution for WMD
Like that of its predecessor, the Bush administration's policy toward Iraq appears to focus on the threat posed by weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in the hands of Saddam Husayn's regime. Some suggest that U.S. policy should emphasize the resumption of inspections, suspended since 1998. However, there are strong reasons
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
How to Unseat Saddam (Part II)
This two-part essay, prepared for the Foreign Policy Research Institute ( www.fpri.org), is a condensed version of an article that appears in the Winter 2001–2002 issue of the National Interest. Read Part I. II. Psyops and Propaganda Activities Psyops and propaganda activities that aim to diminish Saddam in the eyes
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
How to Unseat Saddam (Part I)
This two-part essay, prepared for the Foreign Policy Research Institute ( www.fpri.org), is a condensed version of an article that appears in the Winter 2001–2002 issue of the National Interest. Read Part II. "With respect to what is sometimes characterized as taking out Saddam, I never saw a plan that
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Islam and the Use of Force:
The Views of Contemporary Muslim Clerics on Terrorism, Violence, and Conflict
Recent events have highlighted the crisis in leadership in the Muslim world. Over the past 150 years, Muslim society has undergone a period of rapid transformation that has produced three groups of leaders: clerics, lineage-based traditional groups, and central authorities. Over the past two to three decades there has been
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Articles & Testimony
Curtains for the Ba'ath
Even before September 11, 2001, the Bush Administration faced difficult challenges and choices as it charted U.S. policy toward Iraq. The period of Iraqi quiescence following Operation Desert Fox in December 1998 was clearly over, the containment regime on Iraq had weakened, and the resurgence of Israeli-Palestinian violence had imposed
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Deterioration on the Israeli-Palestinian Front:
Assessing Options
The decision by Israel's security cabinet last night to sever contact with Palestinian Authority (PA) Chairman Yasir Arafat, declaring him "irrelevant" in halting current Hamas suicide bombings and attacks, marks a new nadir in Israeli-Palestinian relations since the 1993 Oslo accords. Israel is frustrated by how little the PA has
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Don't 'Engage' Rogue Regimes
Now that the reign of the Taliban appears over, the question for President Bush is how to confront other state sponsors of terrorism. There are two choices: "engagement" or confrontation. In Afghanistan, he chose confrontation. It looks increasingly likely that the White House will also choose confrontation in Iraq. Yet
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Brief Analysis
Promoting Religious Freedom in the Arab World, Post–September 11
On November 27, 2001, Amy Hawthorne, a Washington Institute Soref fellow, addressed the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom's hearing on "Promoting Religious Freedom during the Campaign against Terrorism." The commission is an independent government agency advising the administration and Congress on issues of religious freedom worldwide. The following is
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Brief Analysis
Fighting a 'Terror-Supporting Entity':
What Next for the Israel Defense Forces?
The Israeli cabinet's December 4 decision to treat the Palestinian Authority (PA) as a "terror-supporting entity," and the Tanzim militia and PA chairman Yasir Arafat's elite unit Force 17 as terrorist organizations, has seemingly expanded the range of military options for the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in its war against
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Articles & Testimony
Broken Record
Muhammad Khatami became the darling of the Western media the minute he triumphed in Iran's presidential elections four years ago. The soft, smiling underdog had defeated three other candidates -- including Ayatollah Khamanei's handpicked candidate, the colorless and unquestionably hardline speaker of the parliament -- in landslide fashion. Tens of
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