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Brief Analysis
Basing Restrictions Shape Concept and Conduct of War
With Saudi Arabian, Turkish, and Jordanian host-nation restrictions limiting coalition ground and air operations, the United States has begun to develop a range of Iraqi airfields as forward operating bases for combat aircraft. This is ironic considering that successive U.S. governments spent billions of dollars to develop an unparalleled basing
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
War in Iraq:
A Preliminary Assessment
Saddam Husayn's regime is under relentless attack, and its days are numbered. Exactly when or how the end will come is unclear but not in doubt. After a week of major combat, it is reasonable to assess the progress of this war: accomplishments by both sides, surprising -- and not
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Turkmens, the Soft Underbelly of the War in Northern Iraq
With the northern front in Iraq being officially launched today, coalition forces may soon move toward the city of Kirkuk, which they began bombing on March 21. Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds as the prospective capital of a Kurdish region in postwar Iraq, is the bastion of the Turkmens, a Turkish-speaking
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Whither U.S.-Turkish Relations?
A Turkish Perspective
AMBASSADOR ILTER TURKMEN Turkish-American relations have experienced many crises in the past. Relations were tense during the Cuban missile crisis in 1962 (when the United States withdrew missiles from Turkey) and when Washington imposed an embargo on arms supplies to Turkey in 1974 after Ankara's military intervention in Cyprus. Nevertheless
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Brief Analysis
Iraqi Strategy and the Battle for Baghdad
Over the past two days, U.S. forces have battled elements of the four Republican Guard (RG) divisions that form the outer ring of Baghdad's defenses, initiating what may be the decisive phase of the coalition's invasion of Iraq. The possibility of urban combat in Baghdad is a daunting one, entailing
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Starting Over:
U.S.-Turkish Relations in the Post–Iraq War Era
As demonstrated by President George W. Bush's request to Congress yesterday to provide Turkey with $1 billion in aid -- money that can be leveraged into $8 billion in loan guarantees -- Turkey will remain a key country for Washington. But the Iraq war is a watershed in U.S.-Turkish relations
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Mark Parris
Articles & Testimony
Perspective
Americans are discovering that Iraqi regime change will be no cakewalk. Even before the Battle of Baghdad, dozens of Coalition deaths have been confirmed, with several American soldiers held in captivity. In southern Iraq, where much of the fighting has thus far taken place, we have not been greeted as
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Brief Analysis
Iraq Fights Its War 'Outside-In'
Iraqi forces have been countering the U.S.-led Operation Iraqi Freedom with a form of "outside-in" strategy, defending their country from the periphery to the center. Although the coalition is winning every significant engagement and has penetrated to the heart of the country, Saddam Husayn's regime is not giving ground easily
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The Long View of No-Fly and No-Augmentation Zones
Coalition ground forces entered Iraq on the first day of Operation Iraqi Freedom, in contrast to Operation Desert Storm in 1991, when the ground assault followed forty-three days of air strikes involving an average of 2,500 sorties per day. This difference was due in large part to the fact that
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Power to the New Prime Minister
For the first time in its history, the Palestinian Authority has a prime minister. Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazin, is assuming this post in what may be a historic development. Not only may power reside in the hands of someone other than Yasser Arafat, the prime minister may
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
The 'Arab Street' and the War:
Are Regimes in Control?
An apparently spontaneous protest stopped traffic in Cairo's Tahrir Square Thursday. Protesting the allied attack on Iraq, some of the participants turned violent, overturning police blockades. In Damascus, riot police fired tear gas on hundreds of protesters who threw rocks and tried to rush the U.S. embassy. Several smaller demonstrations
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
The Arab Coalition
While many European leaders remain deeply fearful of the fallout from a war with Iraq, many Arab leaders in the Middle East began several weeks ago to adjust to what they perceive to be a new reality. They stopped trying to prevent the war and instead began signaling that they
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq:
Lessons from the British Experience
On March 13, 2003, Washington Institute senior fellow Michael Eisenstadt, U.S. Air Force military fellow Eric Mathewson, and National Strategic Studies senior research professor Judith Yaphe introduced the Institute's forthcoming publication U.S. Policy in Post-Saddam Iraq: Lessons from the British Experience. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
It's the Only Way
If there was any doubt that diplomacy had run its course on Iraq, President Bush's speech to the country has put that to rest. Saddam Hussein has precious little time left to choose exile -- and the odds are he will choose wrong once again. Prior to the president's speech
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
The Prime Ministers Nobody Knows
Here's a Middle East riddle: Who are Atef Obeid, Muhammad Mustafa Miro, Ali Abu Ragheb, Mohamed Ghannouchi, Ali Benflis, and Abd al-Qadir Bajamal? Chances are that you're scratching your head. Here's a hint: They work for Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, Jordan's King Abdullah, Tunisian president Zine
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The Complexities of a Military Coup against Saddam
There has been much speculation that under certain circumstances -- either just before a war or in the early stages of a coalition operation -- some elements of the Iraqi military would move against Saddam Husayn and his regime. A coup against Saddam would in fact be a highly complex
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 'No Dominoes' Report and Prospects for Democratization in a Post-Saddam Middle East
According to a classified report drafted by the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) and leaked to the Los Angeles Times on March 14, overthrowing Saddam Husayn will not lead to a wave of successful democratic revolutions against Middle Eastern autocracies. Numerous press accounts describe the report --
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Infrastructure Targeting and Postwar Iraq
Using new operational concepts in concert with rapidly maturing strike technologies, the U.S. military will attempt to seamlessly dovetail the destructive process of warfare with the reconstructive effort of nation building in any future air operations against Iraq. Lessons learned from air campaigns conducted in Iraq during the 1990s have
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Promoting Saudi Civil Society:
What Role for the United States?
Last week the Bush administration decided to reject the recommendation of an independent federal agency to designate Saudi Arabia as a "country of particular concern" under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act. The U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom had heard evidence that the Saudi religious police raided the homes
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nascent Nuclear Doctrine:
Insights from a Captured Document
During Operation Desert Storm, U.S. forces captured several million Iraqi military documents. Among these was one titled "The Operational Use of Weapons of Mass Destruction; Volume 2; Part 2; Foundations for the Use of Nuclear Weapons in War." The manual was published in July 1988 by the Ministry of Defense
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