Policy Analysis

The U.S. cruise missile strikes on Iraqi air defense forces yesterday and today were intended to have three main consequences: 1) to exact a price for the Iraqi army's actions in Irbil and thereby restore credibility to U.S. deterrence; 2) to degrade Iraqi air defenses in the newly extended no-fly

While U.S. officials were in London on Friday evening, resting between mediation sessions with representatives of both main Kurdish factions, Saddam Husayn ordered his panzers into Irbil. The few Kurdish and Iraqi National Congress defenders of Irbil were overwhelmed by the more than 40,000 members of the three Republican Guard

With pro-Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan at the helm of the Turkish government since late June, Washington faces a rare policy dilemma: how to deal with an ally whose leader harbors long-term goals inimical to U.S. interests. The U.S. won its first major policy challenge of the Erbakan era when

The past week has seen speculation by Defense Secretary William Perry tying Iran to the recent bombing of U.S. military personnel in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia and a report in Time linking Iran to the downing of TWA 800. How might the U.S. respond if these reports are true? A New

Leaders of the Middle East, along with leaders around the world, can create a new path toward economic development and prosperity in the Middle East. The alternative would be to descend into regional instability bred by a 3 percent annual Middle East population growth. But leaders need to deflate their

In 1989, following a costly eight-year war with Iraq, Iran initiated a major military build-up intended to rebuild, expand, and modernize its ravaged armed forces and thereby transform itself into a regional military power. Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, its naval build-up in the Persian Gulf, its efforts to undermine

Throughout history, immigration to Israel has been responsible for the state's growth, development, and vitality. As a result, the relationship between immigrants and Israeli society plays an important role in the characteristics of the state. The challenge that has confronted Israel since 1948 has been how to maintain natural cohesion

Erbakan's pro-Islamist Refah Party finished first, with only 21.4 percent of the vote, in December 1995 parliamentary elections. Initially shut out of government, Erbakan managed to bring down the minority secularist government and, on June 28, formed a coalition with former Prime Minister Tansu Ciller, who has long touted herself

Contrary to initial analyses of the April elections, it is now clear that conservative ideologues_not the reputedly more pro-Western supporters of President Rafsanjani_are the dominant force in the Iranian Majlis. That result, plus early Iranian presidential politicking, makes prospects for U.S.-Iranian dialogue as unlikely as ever and could foreshadow an

Research think tanks are a relatively new phenomenon in the Middle East. For example, the al-Ahram Center in Cairo has only been in operation since 1968, and it was addressing strategic issues virtually alone until the 1980s. There are about fifteen institutions in the region working on strategic issues now

Hafez al-Assad's decision to join the peace process in 1991 was perhaps one of the most difficult decisions of his entire political career. Many analysts do not see this as a strategic decision, however it does reflect a major change in Assad's policy toward Israel. The mere fact that Assad

Secular Turkey has an Islamist prime minister, at least for now. Turkey's unprecedented coalition government, headed by 69-year-old pro-Islamist Necmettin Erbakan in coalition with heretofore staunch secularist Tansu Ciller, appears to be a compromise that keeps security issues mainly in the hands of the secularists; offers the Islamists dominant responsibility

Last night's truck bomb, which devastated an apartment block housing U.S. personnel near the Dhahran air base, is an horrific reminder of the potential vulnerability of the U.S.-Saudi Arabian security arrangement. The explosion in Riyadh last November which killed four Americans and then this latest outrage serve to focus public

In its first summit in nearly six years -- and first since the Madrid process began -- the Arab League responded to the election of Binyamin Netanyahu by laying down firm peace process markers for Israel and, implicitly, the Clinton Administration. While calling for a resumption of negotiations on all

In the first Middle East summit since August 1990, Arab leaders are meeting in Cairo to try to forge a unified Arab stance towards the peace process. However, just as the last Arab gathering six years ago ended in acrimony after Iraq's aggression against Kuwait, the current meeting also seems

While much of the analysis of Benjamin Netanyahu's electoral victory has emphasized the impact on negotiations with the Arab "inner ring," relations with Arab states on the periphery of the Arab-Israeli arena have been largely overlooked. This is despite the fact that links with Gulf states and North African countries

Jordan's peace with Israel is based on a strategic decision to develop a new atmosphere of peace in the region based on cooperation and interdependence. From the beginning this peace has been a warm one; more than an agreement between two governments, it encompasses the daily interactions of two peoples

As Turkey lurches from political crisis to crisis, with only caretaker or minority governments for the past nine months, government instability has begun to affect key parts of foreign policy. Yesterday, for example, the Turkish parliament voted to renew Operation Provide Comfort -- the Turkey-based, U.S.-led multinational military operation to

As Israel's new prime minister, Binyamin Netanyahu, presents his government to the Knesset, the international community is still searching for indications about his intentions. The incoming government's personnel and policy guidelines will be minutely scrutinized for clues. More intangible, but also more important, will be Netanyahu's own operating structure and

In Israel's election, President Clinton bet heavily on Shimon Peres and lost. Now, as the Administration assesses the implications of Peres' defeat, it is weighing options of holding fast to current policy or "adapting" to a new situation, as Secretary of State Christopher has hinted. Given Benjamin Netanyahu's stunning victory