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Brief Analysis
Can Americans, Turks, and Kurds Get Along in Northern Iraq?
A Vision
Recently, the bitterness between Ankara and Washington over Turkey's failure to extend full support to the Iraq campaign culminated in a much-feared quagmire. On July 4, U.S. Army forces detained eleven Turkish special operations troops in Sulaymaniyah, northern Iraq, possibly based on Iraqi Kurdish intelligence that they were planning to
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The New Iraqi Army:
Problems and Prospects
According to a June 23, 2003, coalition administration announcement, recruitment for the new Iraqi army is to begin shortly. This is a potentially momentous step with major long-term implications for the future of the state. It will not be easy to create a new army to support a democratic Iraq
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Reading the Popular Mood in Iran
July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Covering the Intifada:
How the Media Reported the Palestinian Uprising
INTRODUCTION The appalling violence between Israelis and Palestinians that began in September 2000 has been one of the most painful episodes in the history of the modern Middle East. People on both sides, and many outsiders, had hoped that the famous handshakes on the White House lawn in 1993 that
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Articles & Testimony
Will the Intifada Go On?
The Intifada, better termed a Palestinian war, will not continue on as it has. In recent months we've witnessed the recognition of a political, economic, psychological and military Palestinian defeat. Leaders now recognize the gross miscalculation of the violence launched in September 2000. Indeed, Israel's reprisals and sanctions have crippled
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Jonathan Schanzer
Articles & Testimony
Will the Intifada Go On?
One can discern two general schools of thought -- pessimists and optimists. Pessimists tend to believe that the conflict is due to a discrepancy between ideas of legitimacy. Pro-Israel members of this camp doubt that Palestinians will accept Israel's right to exist. The implications are clear -- jumpstarting the so-called
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Articles & Testimony
A Window of Opportunity for Israel?
"The tragic conflict between Israelis and Palestinians continues to elude resolution. But I believe that there exists a window of opportunity similar to the one that existed in the aftermath of the Gulf War in 1991." —James Baker III, former U.S. secretary of state[1] President George W. Bush hinted during
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Articles & Testimony
The Two Faces of Saudi Arabia
Earlier this month, the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency announced new rules governing Saudi charities and welfare agencies. From now on, each charity must consolidate its funds in a single bank account licensed by the government, from which cash withdrawals are banned. Explaining the new rules in Washington, Saudi ambassador Prince
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Help Abbas Succeed
After a week of violence that followed the Aqaba summit, most Middle East observers are pessimistic about breaking the Israeli-Palestinian stalemate. Yet after a week of extensive discussions with both sides, I believe it's possible to create a period of calm. Among Palestinians, I found a profound desire to see
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Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Time
A high-level Turkish delegation has been in Washington for the past few days to discuss the future of Turkish-American relations. The collapse of bilateral ties in March over Turkey's confused support for America's Iraq campaign has, to say the least, left Washington bitter. Reports indicate that the disappointment with Ankara
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Succession Politics in the Conservative Arab Gulf States:
The Weekend's Events in Ras al-Khaimah
The normally sleepy shaykhdom of Ras al-Khaimah, part of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), was wracked by gunfire and street protests over the weekend after the aged and frail ruler, Shaykh Saqr bin Mohammed al-Qassimi, switched the title of crown prince from one of his seven sons to another. Sword-waving
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
How Much Don't We Know?
Government-Imposed Constraints on Middle East Media Coverage
DOUG JEHL Of the seventeen countries covered by the New York Times' Cairo bureau, only a few are accessible without constraints: Kuwait, Jordan, and, more recently and to a lesser extent, Lebanon and Bahrain. The most interesting countries in the region from a reportorial standpoint are Saudi Arabia, Syria, Iran
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Program—Countdown?
DAVID ALBRIGHT The IAEA's February 2003 visit to Iran revealed that Tehran's nuclear program was much more advanced that previously thought, raising questions about Iranian compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). This issue will be a major topic at the upcoming meeting of the IAEA
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
A Moment Lost
The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken a turn for the worse. On Wednesday, a suicide bomber blew himself up on a bus in central Jerusalem, killing at least 16 Israelis and wounding scores of bystanders. Within hours, Israeli attack helicopters fired rockets into the Gaza Strip, killing nine people, including four
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Brief Analysis
Patterns of Sunni Resistance in Iraq
Almost from the beginning of the occupation of Iraq, coalition forces have faced "resistance" -- armed action against coalition forces, equipment, or facilities. Resistance is to be distinguished from violence by Iraqis against other Iraqis and from "opposition" -- that is, anticoalition statements, demonstrations, or the organization of political activity
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Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
Smeared in Blood, Hezbollah Fingerprints All Over Globe
The UN operates by consensus, a major counterterrorism handicap given that several of its members are proactive state sponsors of terrorism. Hezbollah poses a threat to Australia and threatens others with support of members in Australia. The Australian initiative to ban Hezbollah, despite the group's absence from the UN Security
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Terrorism As a Strategic Threat to Israel
Many Israelis and Palestinians once again have a sense of hope, following President George W. Bush's meeting with Arab leaders at Sharm al-Shaykh and with Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) prime minister Mahmoud Abbas (known as Abu Mazen) in Aqaba. This new hope in both societies
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Brief Analysis
Reading between the Lines of the Sharm al-Shaykh Summit
At yesterday's Sharm al-Shaykh summit, President George W. Bush persisted in his post-September 11 campaign to transform the Middle Eastern landscape, an effort that includes not only promoting Israeli-Palestinian peace but transforming intra-Arab politics as well. A close reading of the carefully crafted statements by Bush and his Egyptian host
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Lurking in Lebanon
Prime Minister Rafik Hariri of Lebanon announced on Sunday that Lebanese authorities will not enter a Palestinian refugee camp where al Qaeda operatives are known to be, even at the height of the war on terror. Asbat al-Ansar (League of Partisans) was tied to a foiled assassination plot against the
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Jonathan Schanzer
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