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All Policy Analysis by Michael Knights
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In-Depth Reports
Troubled Waters:
Future U.S. Security Assistance in the Persian Gulf
"Gulf stability is not just a regional issue; it is a global one. This book is a critical reference for understanding the security challenges in an area containing the bulk of the world's energy reserves." --Anthony Cordesman, former director of intelligence assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense Whatever the
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Three-Way Game:
Iran, Iraq, and the United States
The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Battle for Iraq Lies in the South
While conventional wisdom has identified the Sunni triangle as the most conflict-prone part of Iraq, the decisive battlefield for the country's political future is instead likely to take place in the Shia south. This region is already the scene of low-profile and longstanding struggles for political and theocratic authority. In
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iraq Elections Set Conditions for Summer of Discontent
Although the elections in Iraq did not produce the nightmare scenarios predicted by many analysts, they have set in motion a process of intense political dialogue and violent brinksmanship that is likely to last throughout 2005....
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Backing Kuwait's Stand against Terrorism
Five firefights between Kuwaiti government forces and terrorist cells since January 10, 2005, have brought the hitherto low-profile issue of Kuwait's role in the war on terror to the fore. The incidents highlight the increased terrorist threat in a country that, in addition to attracting the normal commercial contingent of
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
In the Wake of the Iraqi Elections:
Political and Security Implications
The surprisingly high turnout in the Iraqi elections is a positive development, but it is only one milestone in the road ahead. Beyond the elections, reconciliation becomes the fundamental issue. Sunni Arabs, who represent the overwhelming majority of insurgents, are demographically and politically isolated. As they have long been politically
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Michael Knights
Jeffrey White
Brief Analysis
Lessons from Mosul
The northern Iraqi city of Mosul and its province Nineveh have become the predominant hub of Sunni Arab insurgent activity, making them one of the areas least likely to be able to host effective polling for the January 30 elections. In the lead-up to the elections, the Multinational Forces (MNF)
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
JTIC Briefing:
Jeddah Attack Underscores Fall in Capabilities of Saudi Militants
The 6 December 2004 assault on the US consulate in Jeddah ended six months of relative calm in the Kingdom and provided an unwelcome reminder that the Al-Qaeda movement is down but not out in the region. Michael Knights analyses whether the attack was an unsuccessful anomaly or the leading
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Iraq Conference in Egypt:
Aims, Risks, and Approaches
On November 22-23, officials from several countries will hold a conference in Sharm al-Sheikh, Egypt, regarding Iraq's future. The meeting will represent the first major international event focused on Iraq since the reelection of President George W. Bush and the resignation of U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell. Though organized
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Michael Knights
In-Depth Reports
Operation Iraqi Freedom and the New Iraq:
Insights and Forecasts
Introduction When Operation Iraqi Freedom commenced on March 19, 2003, it was not the beginning of a conflict but the final act of one that had lasted almost thirteen years. Since Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, the military containment of Iraq had become a familiar and unwelcome
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Broader Threat from Sunni Islamists in the Gulf
On July 14, 2004, Bahraini security forces arrested seven suspected terrorists accused of planning "to carry out bombings on some government, economic, and tourist facilities to spread chaos and fear and harm the national economy and foreign investments." The arrests targeted a group of Sunni radicals of the extremist Salafi
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia Faces Long-Term Insecurity
A string of terrorist attacks in Saudi Arabia sent oil prices to a 21-year high in early June and prompted speculation about the future stability of the Al-Saud regime. Yet, the near-term terrorist threat presents a relatively minor risk compared to the longer-term possibility of state failure....
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Short-Term Stablisation in Iraq Could Have Long-Term Costs
The Coalition security policy in Iraq has evolved in important ways since the major public diplomacy setback of the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal and the dual security challenges in the Fallujah-Ramadi area and the Shiite south during April and May. The actions taken by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Operations in Iraq Highlight the Need for Better Communication
Operation "Iraqi Freedom" encompassed the full range of modern military missions, beginning with a transition from the "not peace, not war" prosecution of no-fly zones to high-intensity warfare, followed by a security and stabilisation phase that has involved counterinsurgency and counterterrorist operations. Both during and since the war, the Coalition
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Transfer of Sovereignty in Iraq:
Prospects for a Security Agreement
In congressional hearings on Iraq last week, legislators repeatedly asked testifying administration officials whether the United States would negotiate a formal security agreement with the post-June 30 Iraqi interim government. The officials explained that following the planned transfer of sovereignty to Iraq, U.S. and coalition forces would operate in accordance
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Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Crisis in Iraq:
Assessments and Implications (Part I)
On April 16, 2004, Jeffrey White and Michael Knights addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum, along with Michael Eisenstadt. Mr. White, an associate of the Institute, previously headed the Defense Intelligence Agency's Regional Military Assessments Group and Office for Middle East-Africa Regional Military Assessments. Dr. Knights, the Institute's Mendelow
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Jeffrey White
Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Multinational Divisions in Iraq:
Lessons Learned
Madrid's determination to withdraw Spanish troops from Iraq, combined with the collapse of some multinational forces during recent fighting, poses serious questions about the contribution that such forces can make to security during the period leading up to the June 30 transfer of power. Background The performance of the two
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Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Should Choose Time, Place to Confront Radical Cleric
Since the beginning of Muqtada al-Sadr's uprising this month, the U.S. military has been uncompromising in its determination to bring the Iraqi Shiite cleric to justice. Brig. Gen. Mark Kimmitt, deputy head of U.S. military operations in Iraq, is on record as threatening, "We will hunt him down and destroy
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Setting Realistic Expectations for Iraq's Security Forces
Faced with both the Muqtada al-Sadr uprising and intense fighting in Ramadi and Fallujah, Washington announced that it will hold the number of U.S. forces in Iraq at the current level of 134,000 by delaying plans to withdraw some troops during the current rotation. The announcement is a recognition that
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Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Operation Iraqi Freedom:
One Year On
Operation Iraqi Freedom and the months of military activity that followed it constitute a particularly rich case study from which to draw lessons pertinent to the ongoing debate about the transformation of the U.S. military. Encompassing the full range of modern military missions, the Iraq campaign was exceptional in the
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Michael Knights
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