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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Brief Analysis
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Eve of Decision:
Will Europe Admit Turkey?
On October 6, 2004, the European Commission released its final report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the EU's accession rules, known as the Copenhagen Criteria. Although the report stated that "Turkey satisfies the Copenhagen Criteria sufficiently" to enter accession talks, many European counties and the EU itself are still debating
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Soner Cagaptay
Mark Parris
Articles & Testimony
Why Europe Needs Turkey
On October 6, the European Union issued its much anticipated report evaluating Turkey's accession prospects. The report said that Ankara satisfies the union's membership rules sufficiently to begin accession talks. However, the report also suggested a special track for talks with Turkey, one with no promise of membership. This sets
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
European Union Suggests Turkey Is Not Quite Ready:
A Window of Opportunity for the United States
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, issued its report on Turkey's progress toward satisfying the Copenhagen Criteria, the union's membership rules that mandate "rule of law, institutions guaranteeing democracy, and respect for minorities." Although the commission praised Turkey's dramatic reform efforts since
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Is the European Union Ready for Turkey?
On October 6, the European Union (EU) Commission, the executive arm of the EU, will issue its much-anticipated report on whether Turkey has satisfied the EU's accession rules, the Copenhagen Criteria. The report will serve as a recommendation to the EU Council, the top ministerial body of the union, which
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Where Goes the U.S.-Turkish Relationship?
Throughout the 1990s, Turkish foreign policy analysts had an easy job. After all, Turkish foreign policy was predictable. Ankara cooperated enthusiastically with Washington, whether in the Middle East or in the Balkans. Turkey aligned itself with Israel and kept at arms length from Middle Eastern neighbors such as Syria and
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Ankara Dispatch:
Eastern Heading
These days, pretty much everything in Turkey seems to focus on the European Union. Leaving a friend's apartment in Istanbul on a sultry evening in August, I came across a street quarrel. Istanbulis park literally anywhere, including the sidewalks. A middle-aged man whose driveway had been blocked by an illegally
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Fixing Turkish-Israeli Relations
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's May 20 demarche calling Israeli acts in Rafah "state terrorism" signals that the iceberg awaiting the crash of Turkish-Israeli relations has now surfaced. Jerusalem needs to act immediately to avoid a fallout with Ankara. Turkish-Israeli relations face a potential crisis. On the Turkish side
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Kurds on the Way to Turkey:
How Israel Can Prevent a Crisis in Its Relations with Ankara
(translated from Hebrew) Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's May 20 demarche calling Israeli acts in Rafah "state terrorism" signals that Jerusalem needs to act immediately to avoid fallout with Ankara. Today, the Turkish-Israeli relationship faces a potential crisis. On the Turkish side, the readiness of the public to accept
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Allied Forces
With the U.S. having transferred sovereignty to Iraqis earlier this week, the Kurds find themselves in a more precarious position than at any time in the last year. On June 8, the U.N. Security Council accepted a new resolution dictating the guidelines for post-U.S. Iraq. The resolution did not mention
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The PKK's New Offensive:
Implications for Turkey, Iraqi Kurds, and the United States
On June 1, 2004, the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- an organization that appears on the State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and whose attacks caused more than 30,000 deaths in Turkey during the 1980s and 1990s -- declared that it had rescinded its unilateral "ceasefire" of February 2000
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Istanbul NATO Summit:
Bridging Brussels and Baghdad?
Will the Transatlantic Split Be Mended? NATO's Istanbul summit, to be held on June 28-29, will be historic, marking the first such meeting in which the organization's seven new Eastern European members will participate. In fact, with these additions, NATO now borders Russia. Despite the organization's enlargement, however, a transatlantic
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Philip Gordon
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
UN Plan Fails in Cyprus:
Implications for Turkey, the European Union, and the United States
On April 24, Greek and Turkish citizens of Cyprus voted on UN Secretary General Kofi Annan's plan to resolve the long-standing dispute on the island. The elusive Cyprus issue once again evaded solution: although 65 percent of the Turkish Cypriots voted to accept the Annan plan, 76 percent of Greek
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Split Shift
It's not often that William Safire and Al Jazeera agree but, in the last week, both have drawn explicit comparisons between the anti-Western anger rolling through central and southern Iraq and the relative calm of the Kurdish north. In Iraqi Kurdistan, Safire wrote Wednesday, "we can see success: Rival Kurdish
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
NATO's Transformative Powers
The year 2004 will go down in the annals of history as the year when NATO met the Greater Middle East. In the Istanbul summit on June 28-29, NATO is planning to admit seven Eastern European countries, thereby extending its borders to the Caucasus and the Middle East. Over the
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Local Elections in Turkey:
A Landslide Victory for the Incumbent AKP
On March 28, 2004, Turks voted in nationwide municipal elections for the mayors of more than 3,000 cities and towns, as well as administrative council members for all eighty-one Turkish provinces. Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) won an overwhelming victory, increasing its national standing. With 41.8 percent of
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Local Elections in Turkey:
A Justice and Development Party Landslide?
On March 28, Turks will go to the polls in nationwide local elections to vote for mayors and more than 90,000 council seats in 3,184 towns and cities. The outcome of these elections will not change the composition of Turkey's current Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, which came to
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Problem within Islam
American efforts towards a democratic Iraq seem to have created some strange bedfellows in the Middle East. The Sunnis of the region -- from Baathist loyalists in Iraq and hardcore Wahhabi zealots in Saudi Arabia to secular-minded elites in Amman, Cairo, and elsewhere -- are now united around a common
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Eyewitness Perspectives Assessing Progress in Iraq (Part II):
Politics, Transition, and the Kurds
On February 9, 2004, Patrick Clawson, Soner Cagaptay, Jeffrey White, and Jonathan Schanzer addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. All four were part of the Institute fact-finding delegation tasked with conducting an independent survey of local security conditions and emerging political currents in Iraq. The delegation traveled throughout Iraq
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Patrick Clawson
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A Turkish Rapprochement With Middle East Rogue States?
Turkish foreign minister Abdullah Gul will make an official visit to Tehran on January 10. This visit comes on the heels of a January 68 trip to Turkey by Syrian president Bashar al-Asad -- the first ever by a Syrian head of state -- during which Asad was showered with
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Soner Cagaptay
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