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Policy Analysis
All Policy Analysis by Michael Eisenstadt
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Brief Analysis
Turkish-Syrian Relations:
A Crisis Delayed?
Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action
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Alan Makovsky
Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
Iran Under Khatami:
A Political, Economic, and Military Assessment
Introduction Muhammad Khatami's surprise victory in the May 23, 1997, Iranian presidential election generated much enthusiasm at home and much interest abroad. For Iranians, the massive popular mandate -- Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with a nearly 90 percent turnout -- showed their disillusionment with the ruling establishment
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy Options toward Iraq
Testimony before the House National Security Committee U.S. policy toward Iraq is at a turning point. Decisions made in the coming weeks and months will affect American interests in the Middle East and the fate of the region for years to come. Unfortunately, there is no clear, obvious solutions to
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
The So-Called 'Diplomatic Option'
Richard Murphy's Aug. 25 op-ed piece in support of the administration's "new diplomatic approach" toward Iraq is a recipe for disaster. Ambassador Murphy asserts that this "new approach . . . may prove more effective" than the policy abandoned by the administration after the last confrontation with Iraq that ended
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
What Do the Sudan/Afghanistan Strikes Harbinger?
The U.S. cruise missile attacks on the Sudanese chemical weapons precursor plant and the Afghanistan terrorist camps raises questions about the future direction of U.S. policy on several fronts: the emphasis on state linkages to terrorism, the means used to counter proliferation, the role of law enforcement and military force
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Alan Makovsky
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iran's Recent Missile Test:
Assessment and Implications
Iran gave a new twist to President Khatami's call for a "civilizational dialogue" on July 22 when it test-launched a medium-range missile with the potential to reach India in the east, Russia in the north, Egypt and Turkey in the west and Israel, Jordan and all Gulf Cooperation Council states
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
'Knives, Tanks, and Missiles':
Israel's Security Revolution
On June 15, 1998, Eliot Cohen, director of the strategic studies program at Johns Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS), Michael Eisenstadt, senior fellow in military affairs at The Washington Institute, and Andrew Bacevich, director of SAIS's Foreign Policy Institute and director-designate of the Center for International Studies
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Eliot Cohen
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran:
One Year after Khatemi's Election
Iran has become pragmatic. The pragmatism began not with Khatemi but with the first day of the revolution. As happens with any ideological revolution, there is a significant change between the ideology while in opposition and the policy upon taking power. This bitter reality has forced Iran to deviate from
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Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Dual Bomb Blasts in South Asia:
Implications for the Middle East
The recent series of nuclear weapons tests in South Asia -- reportedly five bombs by India last week and five by Pakistan yesterday -- are likely to have reverberations for nuclear proliferation in the Middle East, though the impact of these tests may not be evident for some time. A
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Iran under Khatami:
Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, and the Arab-Israeli Conflict
Testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Subcommittee on Near East and South Asian Affairs The May 1997 election of Mohammad Khatami as president of Iran has raised hopes and expectations of change in Iran's domestic and foreign policy. In the foreign policy arena, it is possible to discern a
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Commander Sends a Warning
Remarks last week by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Yahya Rahim Safavi during a closed meeting with IRGC officers -- leaked to the Iranian press -- underscore the growing impatience of the country's conservative hardliners with the liberal trend of the Khatami government, Iran's declared intention to adhere to
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Enhancing Public Preparedness for Chemical and Biological Terrorism
The crisis with Iraq, the decision to immunize U.S. troops against anthrax, and recent incidents in the U.S. and Britain (including at least one hoax) have together raised the American public's awareness of the threat posed by chemical and biological (CB) terrorism. Heightened awareness, however, has not been matched by
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq and Iran:
Current Developments and Potential for Future Surprises
The following analysis was prepared for the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (The Rumsfeld Commission), March 23, 1998. This paper will attempt to answer the following questions: 1) What are the current missile capabilities of Iraq and Iran? 2) What kind of WMD payloads
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Despite the recent focus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iran poses a greater long-term threat to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. Iran possesses a large chemical weapons (CW) arsenal consisting primarily of first generation (World War I era) agents, and it is believed to have a nerve
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD):
Unresolved Issues
The agreement hammered out by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein resolving (at least temporarily) the most recent crisis over access to suspected WMD-related sites in Iraq fails to address the fundamental problem the international community faces in Iraq: Baghdad's continued refusal to comply with UN
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing the UN-Iraq Accord:
Impact on Iraq, UNSCOM, and U.S. Policy
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by United Nations (UN) Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz marks a turning point in the approach of the international community toward the regime of Saddam Hussein, and the activities of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) and International Atomic
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Crisis with Iraq:
Reviving the Military Option
Saddam Husayn's speech last Saturday marking the anniversary of Operation Desert Storm confirmed that the current impasse is no ordinary Iraq crisis. Saddam gave the Security Council until May 20 to lift sanctions on Iraq or he would cease cooperation with the United Nations Special Commission (UNSCOM). Saddam's speech also
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Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
In-Depth Reports
'Knives, Tanks, and Missiles':
Israel's Security Revolution
Born a small, beleaguered state, outnumbered and surrounded by enemies committed to its destruction, Israel early in its history formulated a distinctive set of principles for its basic defense policy. To outside observers, Israel's approach became emblematic of, indeed, in some respects indistinguishable from its national character. Throughout the quarter-century
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Eliot Cohen
Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Military Action against Iraq:
Critical Considerations
As Secretary of State Madeleine Albright prepares to meet with the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Russia tonight in Geneva to discuss a possible diplomatic solution to the standoff between Iraq and the UN, Washington continues preparations for a military option: the U.S.S. George Washington carrier battle group is
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Crisis with Iraq:
Options for U.S. Policy
Saddam Husayn probably had several motives in seeking to disrupt UN weapons inspections. First, he sought to undermine the effectiveness of the UN weapons inspectors, if not expel them altogether, because they are the main obstacle to his efforts to transform Iraq into a regional power. Second, Saddam currently has
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Michael Eisenstadt
Kenneth Pollack
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