All Policy Analysis by مايكل آيزنشتات

Iraq and its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) are emerging as one of the first major foreign policy challenges of the Bush administration. Free of weapons monitors and with sanctions eroding, Iraq has resumed its aggressive policies. After the start of the al-Aqsa Intifada last September, it briefly moved elements

Since the beginning of the Al-Aqsa Intifada, accusations that Israel has used "excessive force" in dealing with Palestinians have led to calls for Israel to employ "non-lethal" weapons as a way to reduce Palestinian casualties and stem the cycle of violence between the two sides. In fact, however, Israel is

Uneven press coverage and shocking television footage have skewed analysis of the ongoing "Battle for Jerusalem"--the week-old explosion of violence that has swept from the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, to the West Bank, Gaza and Arab population centers in Israel. Seen in political and historical context, current events actually highlight a

Iraqi actions of recent weeks-- renewed threats against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, violations of Saudi air space by Iraqi combat aircraft, and a belligerent speech by President Saddam Husayn inciting OPEC against the U.S.-- have stoked concerns that Iraq may seek to foment a crisis this autumn while American attention

The orderly transfer of power following the death of President Hafiz al-Asad, in accordance with Syria’s constitutional succession mechanism, has highlighted the role of the formal power structures of the Syrian state: the presidency, cabinet, National Assembly, and, above all, the Ba’th party. It has, however, obscured the crucial role

An Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon would mark a major change in the status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East for the last twenty years. This will create both risks and opportunities for the peoples of the region and for U.S. policy. What happens after an Israeli withdrawal is

Iran is pursuing a strategy of flexible acquisition, keeping multiple options open. It wants to take advantage of any opportunities to obtain required materials out of the former Soviet Union. At the same time, it aims to develop a nuclear infrastructure over the long term, pursuing the whole process of

In the next few days, the United Nations (UN) Security Council will have to decide whether to approve a new inspections regime for Iraqs weapons of mass destruction (WMD). For six months, the Council members have been debating this matter in closed meetings. The impetus to act now comes from

Although it did not receive much press coverage in the United States, State Department spokesman James P. Rubin's statement last week that military retaliation had not been excluded as a possible response to the Khobar Towers bombing made headlines in Tehran. Rubin's boilerplate response to a reporter's question--"when we judge

The 1996 Khobar Towers bombing, in which nineteen U.S. airmen were killed and hundreds injured, continues to cast a shadow over U.S.-Iran relations. The decision last week by the United States to turn over bombing suspect Hani al-Sayegh to Saudi Arabia for trial, and the revelation this week by State

The nuclear status quo that has prevailed in the Middle East since the 1960s is eroding. Israel remains the sole (undeclared) nuclear-weapons state. But Iraq, having defied the United Nations for nearly a decade, retains its nuclear know-how, and has broken out of its IAEA and UNSCOM cage. And there

Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak has identified peace with Syria and Lebanon as a vital strategic objective and, shortly before leaving for Washington, met with Golan residents to remind them that he believes he was elected to achieve that goal. An understanding between Barak and President Bill Clinton about how

Iraqi president Saddam Husayn is undoubtedly watching events in the Balkans quite closely. Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic's continued defiance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) proves that the Western alliance continues to misunderstand dictators. Milosevic, like Saddam, does not care about his people but only about his own power

The current bombing campaign against Iraq is clearly not going to solve all U.S. problems with Iraq. The issue of the day is then: how can the bombing be used to advance long-term U.S. goals? Ratchet up the Pressure. The United States seems intent on convincing Saddam Husayn that the

The relationships between the United States and its allies in the Middle East are, for the most part, founded on national security considerations. As a result, trends that might affect the readiness and capabilities of the U.S. armed forces or Washington's ability to use force effectively have potentially far-reaching implications

Three factors were cited by U.S. officials as reasons not to strike Iraq, none of which is convincing. First was the fear that air strikes would signal the death knell of UNSCOM. In fact, experience shows that Saddam has repeatedly backed down when threatened, and does not take risks when

Despite unconfirmed reports of Syrian willingness to expel PKK leader Abdullah Ocalan and close PKK bases, Turkish-Syrian tensions are likely to persist; Syria's track record of reneging on pledges to cease supporting the PKK will make Ankara skeptical about the durability of any agreement. For this reason, Turkish military action

Introduction Muhammad Khatami's surprise victory in the May 23, 1997, Iranian presidential election generated much enthusiasm at home and much interest abroad. For Iranians, the massive popular mandate -- Khatami received 70 percent of the vote with a nearly 90 percent turnout -- showed their disillusionment with the ruling establishment

Testimony before the House National Security Committee U.S. policy toward Iraq is at a turning point. Decisions made in the coming weeks and months will affect American interests in the Middle East and the fate of the region for years to come. Unfortunately, there is no clear, obvious solutions to

Richard Murphy's Aug. 25 op-ed piece in support of the administration's "new diplomatic approach" toward Iraq is a recipe for disaster. Ambassador Murphy asserts that this "new approach . . . may prove more effective" than the policy abandoned by the administration after the last confrontation with Iraq that ended