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إيران

Policy Analysis on إيران

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Articles & Testimony
Russian Arms and Technology Transfers to Iran:
Policy Challenges for the United States
In the past decade, Russia has become Iran's main source of advanced conventional arms, an alleged supplier of know-how and technology for its ballistic missile and chemical and biological warfare programs, and its sole source of civilian nuclear technology. Despite sustained U.S. efforts to halt these transfers, they continue, raising
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
What Has Impeded Progress in U.S.-Iran Relations?
After much experimentation, the Clinton administration settled on a policy of incremental normalization with Iran, whereby the United States and Iran would gradually improve their relations through mutual concessions and confidence-building measures. As the Bush team assesses policy options towards Iran, it is important to note the meager results of
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  • Ray Takeyh
In-Depth Reports
Into the Shadows:
Radical Vigilantes in Khatami's Iran
Hardline vigilante groups, generally referred to as "pressure groups" (guruh-i fishar) in popular Iranian parlance, have long influenced Iranian politics and society during times of political tension. But particularly since President Muhammad Khatami’s 1997 election—as the power struggle between the Islamic Republic’s reformist and hardline camps has accelerated—vigilantes have become
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Brief Analysis
Iran’s ‘War on Drugs’:
Potential for U.S.-Iranian Cooperation?
Iran faces serious drug problems. It has 1.3 to 2 million addicts, and it is a principal transit point for drug smuggling from Afghanistan to the West. President Mohammed Khatami has criticized the West for its "meager help in the anti-drug campaign." However, before the United States decides whether or
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In-Depth Reports
Dangerous Drift:
Russia's Middle East Policy
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Russian superpower presence in the Middle East faded, and since 1991, a vision of Russian national interest in the region has been missing. Pushed by a succession of narrow domestic corporate and bureaucratic interests, as well
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
Dialogue Abroad, Violence at Home
Iranian President Muhammad Khatami's international charm offensive continues at the UN Millennium Summit, where today he hosts a "Dialogue of Civilizations" and tomorrow he speaks to the General Assembly. Meanwhile, at home, Khatami faces violence rather than dialogue, raising doubts about Iran's peaceful reform. The Iranian Charm Offensive. Last week
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  • Patrick Clawson
  • Ray Takeyh
Articles & Testimony
Containing Iran:
The Necessity of U.S. Sanctions
Sanctions on Iran have made an important contribution to U.S. security by depriving the Iranian government of the revenue it could otherwise have used for a military build-up. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, Iran announced agreements with various suppliers to purchase many more weapons than it actually acquired
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The West's Next Test:
The Verdict of the Thirteen Jews
On July 1, Satiq Nurani, judge and prosecutor for thirteen Iranian Jews accused of espionage, reportedly will announce his verdict. The case, troubling for both procedural reasons and the dubious nature of the charges, has for more than a year been an obstacle in Iran’s relations with the West. The
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Brief Analysis
Defection of a Terror Suspect:
Window into Iranian State Terrorism?
An Iranian asylum seeker in Turkey claims to be Ahmad Beladi-Behbahani, a high-ranking intelligence official in Iran. If true, this is quite a coup, because Behbahani is one of the most important figures in the Iranian terror apparatus, and his revelations could re-ignite debate about a U.S. response to Iran-backed
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Articles & Testimony
Can the United States Influence the WMD Policies of Iraq and Iran?
Iraq and Iran are likely to pose some of the most difficult long-term proliferation challenges for the United States in the coming years. Both countries remain actively committed to developing weapons of mass destruction (WMD) in spite of obstacles created by export controls and sanctions, and even though they are
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Brief Analysis
The Ebb and Flow of Reform in Iran
As the May 5 second-round Majlis (parliament) election approaches, questions remain as to whether the Islamic Republic's hardliners can be marginalized through the ballot box, whether reformists' voices can be muzzled, and whether change in Iran can both be rapid and nonviolent. In February, the reformist triumph in the first
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Articles & Testimony
Pragmatic Theocracy:
A Contradiction in Terms?
For two decades now, the Islamic Republic of Iran has confounded the American foreign policy community, whose members have oscillated wildly between urgent appeals to normalize relations with Tehran and equally determined bids to contain its influence. In the latest swing of the pendelum, a chorus of voices--including those of
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
Iran's Hardliners Fight Back
Iran's hardliners, who suffered a resounding drubbing in February's first-round Majlis (parliament) elections, have been resurgent in defeat and now appear to have the momentum in their ongoing power struggle with reformist politicians and institutions. In their latest move, Iran's hardline-dominated judiciary ordered the immediate closure of twelve reformist newspapers
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Brief Analysis
Khatami's Next Test:
The Trial of Thirteen Jews
On April 13, thirteen Iranian Jews are scheduled to come to trial in Shiraz to face espionage charges that carry the death penalty. The trial, more than a year after the thirteen were originally detained, comes at a critical time for Iran--less than two months after Iranian president Muhammad Khatami's
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Brief Analysis
Advancing U.S. Interests and Better Relations with Iran
Secretary of State Madeleine Albright's March 17 speech to the Conference on American-Iranian Relations was a milestone in the slowly improving bilateral ties. Although a number of useful ideas were broached, on balance the speech missed a golden opportunity to make common cause with reformist supporters of Iranian president Muhammad
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program:
Status and Implications
Iran is pursuing a strategy of flexible acquisition, keeping multiple options open. It wants to take advantage of any opportunities to obtain required materials out of the former Soviet Union. At the same time, it aims to develop a nuclear infrastructure over the long term, pursuing the whole process of
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Let Iran Change on Its Own
The parliamentary elections in Iran produced a massive pro-reform vote. The obvious question is what can the United States expect and how should it respond. Paradoxically, the answers are, expect little change soon on the issues of most concern, and do little so as not to be counterproductive. Background. The
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Majlis Elections:
Prospects and Implications
On February 18, Iran will hold the first round of voting for a new Majlis (parliament). But the complex nature of Iranian parties with their different camps and factions, each with different tendencies, complicates any predictions about the election's outcome. It is by no means clear that the same trends
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Brief Analysis
A Background to Iran's Forthcoming Majlis Elections
Speaking about Iran at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on January 30, U.S. secretary of state Madeleine Albright commented, "There is an attempt to probe a possibility of dialogue and we are waiting to see what happens in the Majlis [Parliament] election next month." What are the procedures
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Articles & Testimony
Sidebar:
Iran's Upheaval
The following is a sidebar to Dr. Satloff's article "The Next Turbulent Zone." Iran's great internal debate over its future, as evidenced in recent confrontations between demonstrating students and police, is likely to sharpen and deepen in the next five years. The two protagonists here are not, as often reported
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  • Robert Satloff

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