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إيران

Policy Analysis on إيران

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Articles & Testimony
Evaluating the Options Regarding the Iranian Nuclear Threat
Testimony before the U.S.-Israel Joint Parliamentary Committee The United States has for years judged Iran to be the world's foremost state-sponsor of terrorism. While the most direct way to sever the link between Tehran and its main terror arm -- Hizbollah -- is via Damascus, Washington is vigilant about Iran's
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Gaining Support for Action on Iran's Nuclear Program
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Reading the Popular Mood in Iran
July 9 is the fourth anniversary of the student-sparked mass protests that erupted in Iran in 1999. New protests this July could test Washington no less than Tehran. Will the U.S. government side openly and publicly with the freedom-minded students against not only the unelected hardliners, but also the ineffectual
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Program—Countdown?
DAVID ALBRIGHT The IAEA's February 2003 visit to Iran revealed that Tehran's nuclear program was much more advanced that previously thought, raising questions about Iranian compliance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). This issue will be a major topic at the upcoming meeting of the IAEA
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iran:
Demonstrations, Despair, and Danger
In the early morning hours of June 11, according to Reuters, 3,000 demonstrators near Tehran University shouted, "Political prisoners must be freed!" This incident comes shortly after the issuance of two letters sharply attacking the present system -- one signed by more than one-third of the Majlis and one by
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq and Iran:
Crosswinds?
A. WILLIAM SAMII Although there are various players with different agendas in Iran's foreign policy bureaucracy, all those with real power agree on the unattractiveness of the situation in Iraq. Hence, Tehran has become increasingly involved in postwar Iraq. In addition to providing humanitarian assistance to Iraqis, Iran has been
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Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part III):
How Might Iran Retaliate?
A U.S. or "coalition" strike against Iran's nuclear program would be an exercise in high-stakes compellence. Although the physical results of such a strike (e.g., amount of damage inflicted; number of years by which the Iranian nuclear program would be set back) are uncertain, the consequences for U.S.-Iranian relations are
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  • Jeffrey White
Articles & Testimony
Heart of the Axis
The National Security Council is scheduled to hold a "senior level meeting" Thursday to formulate administration policy toward Iran. Electronic intercepts indicating senior al Qaeda operatives in Iran were behind the Riyadh bombings suddenly sparked official "concern" regarding the hospitality master terrorists enjoy with the compliments of their Iranian Revolutionary
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  • Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part II):
Operational Challenges
Counterproliferation strikes on nuclear sites are uncommon but by no means unprecedented. Germany's embryonic nuclear program was attacked during World War II, Iraq's Osiraq nuclear plant was bombed by Iran in 1980 and by Israel in 1981, and Iran's Bushehr reactor site was attacked by Iraq throughout 1984-1988. During the
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iranian Nuclear Weapons (Part I):
The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Action
Having just fought a war to rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction, and alarmed by fresh signs of dramatic progress by Tehran in the nuclear arena, the United States is pressing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to declare Iran in violation of its commitments under the Treaty on
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
A Terrorist U.S. Ally?
One of the stranger news items coming out of Iraq these days concerns an Iranian opposition group called the Mujahedeen-e Khalq (MEK). It's a U.S. government-designated terrorist organization that coalition forces first bombed from the air, then signed a cease-fire agreement with -- and finally disarmed and protected. Say that
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Polling in Iran:
Surprising Questions
The difficulties facing Iranians who want to express their opinions freely in print are legion. In an atmosphere where journalists and pollsters are often detained without trial, it is easy to assume that pollsters do not ask important questions and that respondents do not give serious answers. Yet, some very
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Brief Analysis
A View From Tehran:
War and the Challenges in the Post-Saddam Middle East
RAY TAKEYH Iran is facing its most acute crisis since the 1979 revolution. Over the past six years, political institutions have played a key role in opening the path to reform. Yet, the success of President Muhammad Khatami's efforts to involve the Iranian people in electoral processes and political institutions
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  • Ray Takeyh
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran's Municipal Elections:
A Turning Point for the Reform Movement?
On February 28, 2003, elections were held across Iran for positions on city and village councils, local political bodies that were revived in 1999. Whereas the 1999 council elections resulted in impressive gains by reformers, last Friday's electoral results demonstrated the resurgence of the right wing. Capitalizing on low voter
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  • Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Indictment of Palestinian Islamic Jihad Militants:
The Iranian Connection
On February 20, 2003, the U.S. Department of Justice announced the indictment of eight leading members of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). The indictment provides a wealth of detail about the close connection between PIJ and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Background on PIJ and the Indictment PIJ is designated as
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Brief Analysis
Iran—Democratic Evolution or Revolution?
For many years, Western democracies have been pessimistic about the possibility of Iran becoming a secular democracy. Thus, Western policy toward Iran has long been characterized by a series of hesitant, inconsistent, and ad hoc decisions aimed at countering Iranian-sponsored terrorism, coupled with a relative lack of concern about the
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Program:
Gathering Dust or Gaining Steam?
As the United States looks to disarm Iraq and to defuse or defer a nuclear crisis with North Korea, another nuclear crisis -- with Iran -- looms on the horizon. U.S. policymakers could face critical decisions this year regarding Iran's nuclear program as the Bushehr reactor approaches completion, as Iran's
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
Classifying Evil:
Bush Administration Rhetoric and Policy toward Rogue Regimes
Language matters in international policymaking, and terms such as "rogue," "outlaw," and "hostile" can help mobilize democratic publics against states that actively attempt to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD), proliferate long-range missiles, and sponsor international terrorism. For President George W. Bush, the attacks of September 11, 2001, reinforced the
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  • Raymond Tanter
Brief Analysis
Iran's Nuclear Activities:
What Might the IAEA Learn?
Satellite photos published last week showed two sites in Iran that might house a civilian energy program and/or a nuclear weapons program. To determine exactly what purpose these sites serve would require an on-site inspection. Yet, inspections performed by international regulatory agencies are bound by certain limitations. What are the
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
Reformist Blues, Economic Woes
Iran has been experiencing nationwide student demonstrations this week, touched off by a hardline court's recent decision to sentence Tehran professor Hashem Aghajari to death for advocating reform of the Shi'i clergy. Although Aghajari's message was well within the mainstream of traditional Shi'a thought, it presented a challenge to the
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