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Brief Analysis
Israel:
Strategy for Peace and Security
In May 1996, the peace process was not the dynamic, successful set of negotiations that many today retrospectively claim it was. In fact, the Israeli-Palestinian track was on the verge of collapse. Had it been making real progress, Binyamin Netanyahu would not have been elected prime minister. Thus, when the
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Dore Gold
Brief Analysis
Khatami's Cabinet Choices:
On the Record
President Mohammed Khatami submitted his list of nominees for the twenty-two cabinet positions to the Iranian Majlis (parliament) on August 12. The Majlis must approve every candidate, and the assembly will announce its decisions by August 20. Since the presidential election in May, many analysts have debated the extent to
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Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Peace at Home, Peace Abroad?
The actions of former Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan caused chaos in the formulation and implementation of Turkish foreign policy, concern in the West, and a higher profile for the half-military National Security Council (and the military itself) in the policymaking process. Erbakan and Tansu Ciller, former deputy Prime Minister
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Brief Analysis
The Clinton/Albright Plan—
Step 1, Fight Terror; Step 2, Make Peace Fast
The Clinton administration responded to internal and international pressure to ratchet up its role in the Arab- Israeli peace process yesterday with two important statements—a full-scale speech by Secretary of State Albright and extended comments by President Clinton at a Rose Garden press conference. The result was two key shifts
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Islamism Across the Green Line:
Relations among Islamist Movements in Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza
Pages: 23
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Brief Analysis
Turkish-Israeli Military Cooperation:
An Assessment
The deepening military relationship between Israel and Turkey has heightened Arab and Iranian concerns about the potential implications of this new axis between the two most powerful states in the region. Though these anxieties seem exaggerated, it is animated by a fear that this thus far limited relationship could eventually
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy and the Peace Process:
What (If Anything) Is to Be Done?
Six months after the signing of the Hebron protocol and the U.S.-negotiated Note for the Record, it is clear that the negotiating process is at an impasse. While the Hebron violence has subsided and the two sides have returned to the bargaining table just this week, this is clearly the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
Domestic Change and Regional Politics
The Turkish military was the driving force behind events that led to Islamist Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan's resignation. Also important, however, were civilian elements of the Turkish establishment, which was acting on all cylinders. The most powerful delegitimation of Erbakan's government was the unprecedented cooperation between rival trade unions and
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Turkish Secularists Back in Charge:
Outlook and Opportunity
Having won his parliamentary vote of confidence Saturday by a relatively comfortable margin, Turkish Prime Minister Mesut Yilmaz has set about the difficult task of governing with his ideologically diffuse but all-secular government. The departure of the Erbakan-Ciller government has eased tensions in Turkey, though questions about the future of
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Islamic Politics in Saudi Arabia
Although Saudi Arabia faces opposition from its Shi'i minority, the threat from its mainstream Sunni population is far more serious. While the Shi'i opposition is a problem, it also serves to divert attention from the more serious danger posed by discontented members of the Sunni majority, whose opposition threatens the
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Brief Analysis
Whither Iran?
The Khatami Factor
Iran's Islamic Revolution of 1979 was inspired by social, economic, cultural, political, and international factors, in addition to strictly religious motives. The revolution guaranteed that "Islam is the solution" to the problems plaguing the lower strata of Iranian society. However, this promise for a better life has not been realized
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Brief Analysis
The Jordanian Perspective on Regional Developments
Israel-Palestinian Track: "The standoff is dangerous and threatening. If it persists, it may lead to the collapse of all our endeavors and achievements thus far... The [U.S.] mediator's role is going to be limited if the principals continue to shun each other because of political pressure to which they claim
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Brief Analysis
Fragility of Modern Arab States:
The Case of Iraq
The nation-state is not a familiar concept in the Middle East. It has no equivalent in the political traditions of the region. In classical Islam the state is a theocracy, a community of God governed by the Prophet Muhammad and his immediate successors. Such a state was not constrained by
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Brief Analysis
Iran after Khatemi's Elections:
Whither U.S. 'Containment' Policy?
Mid-course corrections are necessary to maintain the viability of Washington's Gulf policy and to secure U.S. interests, including those in Central Asia. Sanctions have not worked in the past to hasten the downfall of leaders such as Castro, Qaddafi, or Saddam. Although sanctions have slowed down Iran's development of a
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Brief Analysis
Al-Sayigh's Deportation and a Warming of Saudi-Iranian Relations
Today's announcement of the deal between U.S. law enforcement officials and Hani al-Sayigh, an alleged member of the clandestine Shi`i organization "Saudi Hizballah" with links to the al-Khobar Towers bombing, has strategic, not just legal, implications for the investigation of that terrorist act. The decision to seek al-Sayigh's deportation to
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Brief Analysis
Algeria after Elections:
What Next?
The results of the Algerian election suggest that about 80 percent of the Algerian people (at least those who voted) favor separating "mosque" and "state." This outcome is significant because it indicates that Algerians are successfully resisting "Islamic totalitarianism." Many Algerians have said that the vote wasn't as clean as
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Brief Analysis
An Iraqi-Syrian Entente?
Prospects and Implications
On June 2, after a seventeen-year closure, Syria opened its border at three points to its neighbor and long-time rival Iraq. The move, coming amidst unusual reciprocal visits of Iraqi and Syrian business delegations to each others' capitals, suggests an economic marriage of convenience. There is a possibility, however, that
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Brief Analysis
Israeli Security, the Peace Process, and the U.S.-Israel Partnership
Netanyahu's Victory, One Year Later: When the Labor government was in power, it was legitimate to ask whether it is adequate to have a majority which supports the peace agreements even if it does not include the majority of the Jewish population. It is important to remember that the peace
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Brief Analysis
The Oslo Impasse and U.S. Policy:
Small Changes, Big Implications
On the 30th anniversary of the Six Day War, it is clear that the diplomacy designed to resolve a core element left from that conflict—the Israeli-Palestinian dispute - has reached an impasse. Not only has the security cooperation between Israel and the Palestinian Authority envisioned in the Oslo Accords broken
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Khatemi, the Search for Iranian 'Moderates,' and U.S. Policy
In banner headlines, newspapers across America heralded the surprise victor in Iran's May 23 presidential election - Mohammad Khatemi - as a moderate. This, in fact, marks at least the fourth attempt by the United States to find influential moderates among Iran's leadership since the revolution. In 1980, the Islamic
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Patrick Clawson
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