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Brief Analysis
U.S. Caspian Policy Faces Fresh Challenges
Turkmenistan president Saparmurad Niyazov today signed an agreement with Turkey's energy and natural resources minister, Ziya Aktash, to supply Turkmen natural gas to Turkey via a trans-Caspian pipeline. Later this month, work will begin on a much-delayed oil pipeline to carry oil from fields operated by a Chevron-led consortium in
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Israeli Elections:
Results and Implications
Campaign: Israel's elections were primarily a referendum on Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyhahu's leadership, and the verdict was clear: "Anybody but Netanyahu." This was also the sentiment during the campaign, especially when the three prime ministerial candidates (Yitzhak Mordechai, Ze'ev "Benny" Begin, and Azmi Bishara) from the three smaller parties dropped
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Barak's Win Puts Pressure on Arafat
After three years of a foreign policy that found Israel increasingly isolated, Ehud Barak's landslide victory in Israel's elections Monday should inaugurate a new "era of good feelings" between Israelis, Americans and Arabs. But once the honeymoon wears off, Israel's negotiating partners shouldn't expect Mr. Barak to make substantive concessions
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Don't Expect Magic in the Mideast
Sighs of relief sound the same regardless of their underlying meaning. It is therefore, easy to gloss over the distinctions among those hailing Ehud Barak's landslide victory over Benjamin Netanyahu in Monday's Israeli elections, and to focus on the common aspects of relief heard in the sighs: A long divisive
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Brief Analysis
Barak's Landslide Victory:
Middle East Reactions
Optimism About the Peace Process, Post-Netanyahu "The powers of rationalism which want to put an end to extremism and violence have triumphed. . . . This is a message from the majority of the Israeli public to Barak that it wants to close the chapter of conflict with the Palestinians
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Brief Analysis
Air Strikes and American Strategy toward Iraq
Iraqi president Saddam Husayn is undoubtedly watching events in the Balkans quite closely. Yugoslav president Slobodan Milosevic's continued defiance of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) proves that the Western alliance continues to misunderstand dictators. Milosevic, like Saddam, does not care about his people but only about his own power
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel's Security and U.S.-Israeli Defense Cooperation
Lebanon: The problem of greatest concern for an Israeli defense minister is southern Lebanon. Dealing with the problem effectively requires correctly identifying it: Syria is waging a proxy war against Israel through Hizballah. It is inappropriate to regard Lebanon as a sovereign state independent of Syrian control or to view
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Brief Analysis
Saudi-Iranian Cooperation:
A Sign of Changing Relations among Large Oil Exporters
Yesterday, Prince Sultan, the Saudi second deputy prime minister and minister of defense and civil aviation, left Tehran after meetings with senior Iranian leaders, including Ayatollah 'Ali Khamene'i, President Muhammad Khatami, and Defense Minister 'Ali Shamkhani. The talks centered on ways to increase regional stability, the signing of a civil
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Brief Analysis
Israel's Elections:
The View from the Arab World
Palestinian Authority chairman Yasir Arafat's decision to postpone a unilateral declaration of independence (UDI) from the long-threatened May 4 deadline is due in no small part to his intense interest in the upcoming Israeli elections. He and his closest advisers, with the encouragement of Egyptian and Jordanian leaders among others
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Articles & Testimony
The New Activism in Turkish Foreign Policy
Pleased with his decision to throw in Turkey's lot with the winning U.S.-led coalition against Saddam Hussein, Turkish President Turgut Ozal declared at a 1991 post-Gulf War press conference that Turkey "should leave its former passive and hesitant policies and engage in an active foreign policy."1 Ozal's decision to back
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Alan Makovsky
In-Depth Reports
Israeli Preconditions for Palestinian Statehood
Israel and the Palestinians will soon begin fateful negotiations for a "final status" agreement to resolve the core issues at the heart of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. for Israel, these negotiations will determine the size and character of the state (whether it remains a Jewish state or becomes a binational state)
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Zeev Schiff
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
A Role Model at Turbulent Crossroads
On April 27, 1999, Turkish president Suleyman Demirel addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following are excerpts from his comments during the forum's question-and-answer session. Read his opening remarks. On Turkey's Recent Elections "The important question is whether the elections have been free and fair. And they were
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Suleyman Demirel
Brief Analysis
Israel:
The Candidates Speak
Palestinian Statehood: "Arafat knows that if he declares the establishment of a Palestinian state unilaterally, it will mean the annulment of the Oslo accords." ---Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu speaking to the Likud Central Committee at Tel Aviv's Cinerama Hall, broadcast on Israel Television's Channel 1 Network on December 27, 1998
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Brief Analysis
Turkey:
A Role Model at Turbulent Crossroads (full transcript)
On April 27, 1999, Turkish president Suleyman Demirel addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Following is the full text of his opening remarks, as prepared for delivery. Read excerpts from his comments during the forum's question-and-answer session. Distinguished guests, It is a great pleasure for me to address such
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Suleyman Demirel
Brief Analysis
Israel's Election:
The Countdown to May 17 Begins
Finally, after four months of pre-campaign maneuvering, the fireworks of Israel's 51st Independence Day last week marked the welcome opening of the real campaign for this country's May 17 elections. Until now, Israelis have witnessed a surreal campaign, dominated by polls for an electoral contest that will never happen (that
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iranian Attitudes toward the Kosovo Crisis
Two threads have run through the Iranian government's attitudes toward the current crisis in the Balkans. The first is Iran's self-perceived role as leader of the Islamic community. This sentiment has existed since the 1979 revolution, and it was reinforced in 1997 when Iran assumed the leadership of the fifty-five-member
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Brief Analysis
What Role for NATO in the Middle East?
In the longer run, Kosovo will have a dramatic impact on the U.S.-European relationship. Kosovo has raised questions about the powerlessness of Europeans in the face of Kosovo-like conflicts as well as the dangers Europe must confront. Kosovo will be the catalyst for the overdue post-Cold War debate over the
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Brief Analysis
Turkey's Nationalist Moment
In making two strongly nationalist parties the top vote-getters in this weekend's elections, Turks showed the assertiveness of a nation that feels itself emerging as a regional power and the defensiveness of one still embittered by Western Europe's rejection. The secular establishment can take only slight solace in the decline
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Middle Eastern Reactions to the Kosovo Crisis and NATO Airstrikes
The flight of refugees from the predominantly Muslim ethnic Albanian community in Kosovo, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) continuing airstrikes against Serbia, have produced varied reactions in the Middle East. The following is a sample of responses. Support for NATO in the Arab World "We must encourage the
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Brief Analysis
Turkey on Election Eve
The most likely outcome of the elections will be a three- or four-party, right-left, secular coalition government under the incumbent prime minister, Bulent Ecevit, who will probably receive the most votes among secularists. Whatever the results, the half-civilian, half-military National Security Council will continue to determine the major lines of
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Alan Makovsky
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