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All Policy Analysis by سونر چاغاپتاي
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Articles & Testimony
Arab AKPs in the Making?
Can Turkey's experience in the past decade under the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government -- blending democracy, close ties with the West, a "Muslim" foreign policy, capitalism and Islamism -- be copied by Arabs, as many claim? Probably not -- except for Tunisia. Although rooted in Turkey's Islamist movement
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David Pollock
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Are Syrian Alawites and Turkish Alevis the Same?
Could Turkey really go to war against Syria? If it were to do so, Ankara would need to find a way to deal with the increasingly sectarian nature of the conflict in Syria and its potential ramifications inside Turkey. The regime of Bashar al-Assad has enjoyed overwhelming support among Syria's
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Will Syria's Sectarian Divisions Spill Over into Turkey?
Should the conflict in Syria turn Sunni on Alawite, Turkish Alevis may find themselves actively opposing any intervention organized by their own government. Observers of the growing humanitarian crisis in Syria are increasingly worried that the conflict will turn into sectarian struggle, and with good reason: the Assad regime has
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How Iran and Turkey See Each Other
Welcome to the new Middle East, which increasingly looks too small to accommodate both Turkey and Iran. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is visiting Riyadh on Friday. The Syrian crisis will dominate the agenda in Riyadh, and Iran will scrutinize every statement made by Erdogan and his Saudi hosts
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Soner Cagaptay
Alex Vatanka
Brief Analysis
Changed Prospects for Turkish Military Intervention in Syria
Several recent developments have put the possibility of military action in Syria on Turkey's agenda. On April 9, Syrian forces opened fire at a refugee camp on the Turkish side of the border, killing two Syrian refugees and wounding two Turks. The number of such refugees crossing into Turkey has
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
A Piece of Turkey Lies in the Middle of the Syrian Desert
A little-known Turkish exclave, Caber Kalesi (Qal'at Ja'bar in Arabic), is a sliver of sovereign Turkish territory that sits smack in the middle of Syria.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Syria and Turkey: The PKK Dimension
Among Syrian opposition groups, the belief is widespread that Damascus has been allowing the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) -- a group on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organizations list -- to operate once again in Syria. Back in 1998, the Syrian regime curbed PKK activity on its soil and cut
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Ottomania All the Rage in Turkey
"Fetih 1453" ( The Conquest 1453), a Turkish spring blockbuster that glorifies the Ottomans and their conquest of Istanbul, is breaking viewership records in Turkey these days. Over 5 million Turks have already seen the movie, making it the country's most popular film of all time. The film's popularity sheds
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Soner Cagaptay
Suna Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Don't Expect Turkey to Invade Syria
A Turkish intervention in Syria could boomerang, ratcheting up PKK attacks and eroding the soft power Turkey has painstakingly built in the Middle East over the past decade.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Foreign Policy Pivot
What made Ankara do an about-face and re-embrace the West? Recognition of what gives it power in the Middle East.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Turkey Hasn't Intervened in Syria
Turkey's Syria policy seems to be mirroring its Libya strategy: speaking out against a tyrant, gathering international support for political action against him, but staying in the background when it comes to military action.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Delayed Intervention in Syria Could Cause Radicalization
The sooner the international community helps end the killing in Syria, the more likely it will be able to prevent radicalization of the country's population along sectarian lines.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Post-EU World
For the moment, at least, the notion that Turkey will become a full EU member state is no longer true.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Next Up: Turkey vs. Iran
Turkish-Iranian rivalry in the Fertile Crescent has opened up a can of worms.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Can Dictators Survive New Media?
"Protest technology" has changed the relationship between authoritarian regimes and their citizens, and there is no going back.
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The Case for Organizing a Military Force from Muslim Countries to Intervene in Syria
Washington needs to devise a well-planned, delicate intervention in Syria: one supported by Russia, executed by Turks and Arabs, and remotely backed by the United States and its European allies.
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
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Soner Cagaptay
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