Policy Analysis

The violence in Suwayda has exposed the limits of Ahmed al-Sharaa’s control of Syria. But the assumption that the Druze community there is a monolith does not bear out: Damascus and Jerusalem are vying for influence amid the various leaders competing for power in the southwestern Syrian governorate.

Hostage-taking has served multiple purposes for Hamas, including a novel use of cognitive warfare. This may prove to be a turning point in terrorist strategy that governments will need to learn how to counter effectively.

Despite years of Houthi control, there remains local resistance forces who hope to take back the area from a group who occupied the Tihama region in order to control the strategic port of al-Hudayda and the area's other resources.

Regardless of rhetoric, Erdogan quietly benefits from conflicts like the recent twelve-day war between Israel and Iran—both in terms of bolstering Ankara's regional profile and in deflecting attention from domestic issues.

Iranian Kurdish opposition groups remain committed to regime change in Iran, but external and internal factors contributed to the caution with which they approached the recent conflict.

Sudan's new prime minister was recently appointed to present a civilian face palatable to the international community; whether he can implement reforms in Sudan's complex environment as promised in his recent speech will depend on international pressure and his ability to navigate the country's power dynamics.

Over the past number of years, many Iraqis have become increasingly concerned about media restrictions imposed by Iraqi authorities, who have banned numerous applications, electronic platforms, and news websites.

Twenty years on from the fall of Saddam Hussein, Iraq continues to suffer from a deep crisis in the practice of its democracy.

New developments in the PKK-Turkey peace process are a window of opportunity for Iraqi Kurdish parties to stabilize areas of Iraqi Kurdistan affected by the conflict and help facilitate a lasting peace.

Until now, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been happy with the comparisons his hard-core supporters make between him and Ali ibn Abi Talib—Shia Islam’s first divinely ordained Imam. Ironically, this insistence on Khamenei’s infallability, combined with the current acquiescence to strategic flexibility or policy concession, is eroding that sense of trust with Khamenei’s core base of hardline supporters.

The recent flare-up of violence in southern Syria has once again exposed the fragility of the country’s post-Assad order and minority communities’ underlying fears that the current government is unwilling or incapable of establishing a government that ensures minority rights or ensuring the safety of all Syrians against militia factions.

With signs of fewer Iraqis prioritizing their national identity, Iraqis are likely to see another elections cycle shaped by subnational identities in the upcoming parliamentary elections.

As the U.S. administration shifts towards an economics-first approach to foreign policy, Jordan will need to find ways to emphasize the benefits of the two countries' decades-long broader strategic relationship in public messaging—both for its own national security interests and as a way to assuage public concerns.

The new Syrian government will be judged not just by its treatment of minorities, but also how it approaches political opposition—and its checkered history in this regard gives pause.

In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public.

In the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, signs of Chinese soft power are increasingly visible to residents of an area with longstanding ties to the United States.

With U.S. security aid for Iraq under review, Baghdad is attempting to assess the potential impact of an extended freeze on its national security.

Based on their experiences with Trump’s first administration, many Kurdish politicians in both Syria and Iraq believe they are on the brink of historic decisions that will shape their political future.

If Sharaa wants to avoid repeating Assad’s mistakes, he may have to genuinely decentralize political power and establish a federal system, though this would raise difficult questions about resource allocation.

In its latest propaganda campaign, the Islamic State is underscoring the strategic significance of Somalia in its expansionist agenda.