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Brief Analysis
The Escalating Crisis in the Middle East:
Prospects and Policy (Part I)
On October 13, 2000, Robert Satloff addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum along with David Makovsky. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Read a summary of Mr. Makovsky's remarks. General Context The last two weeks have been symptomatic of the different sort of Middle East the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Turkey:
The Armenian Genocide Resolution and Iraq Policy
If passed, a non-binding resolution in the U.S. House of Representatives calling upon the U.S. government to recognize the "Armenian genocide" as historical fact will sour U.S.-Turkish relations at a time when bilateral ties are more vulnerable than they have been for years and when Turkish support for U.S. policies
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Alan Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Hizballah's Kidnapping:
An Opportunity to Test Bashar al-Asad
The kidnapping of IDF soldiers from the Israel-Lebanon border presents Washington with its first opportunity to test the intentions and capabilities of Syria's new and inexperienced president, Bashar al-Asad.
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Yossi Baidatz
Brief Analysis
A Lockerbie Trial Brief:
The Tale of a Defector
The Lockerbie trial restarts on Tuesday, October 17, after a three-week recess. This recess was requested by the prosecution, who in a puzzling move, asked for time to investigate new evidence of "considerable sensitivity." Prior to the adjournment, the prosecution had introduced its star witness, a double agent with first-hand
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Hizballah Kidnapping and the Potential for a 'Second Front'
Hizballah's capture of three IDF soldiers in the disputed Lebanese-Israeli eastern Har Dov/Shebaa Farms border area Saturday marked the most serious outbreak of IDF-Hizballah hostilities since the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon in May. The well-planned and executed ambush underscored the continued threat to Israel posed by Hizballah's highly-skilled guerrilla
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Brief Analysis
Egypt's Parliamentary Vote:
A Democracy Test amid Regional Tension
As rumors swirl regarding a possible Arab League summit meeting in Cairo later this month, preparations are underway for a major event on the Egyptian domestic scene: the holding of parliamentary elections. This vote, set to occur over three stages from October 18 to November 14, will be the first
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Articles & Testimony
Avoiding a War
After eight years of Herculean effort to build Arab-Israeli peace, President Clinton faces the cruel irony that the level of violence in the Middle East may be higher when he leaves office than when he entered it. The region not only faces the prospect of the collapse of the peace
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
From Riots to Diplomacy:
Rethinking Principles, Assessing Options
The fact that U.S. and Israeli officials--not Yasir Arafat--announced that the Palestinian leader had ordered a halt to violence in the West Bank and Gaza highlights the failure of the U.S.-led summit meeting in Paris. This underscores the prospect that the al-Aqsa Intifada--as Palestinians have termed the week-long spasm of
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Inside the Fatah Tanzim:
A Primer
As violence continues to flare in parts of Jerusalem, the West Bank and Gaza, attention is increasingly focused on the Palestinian group responsible for much of the rioting and confrontation--the Fatah Tanzim. Just yesterday, the leader of the Tanzim, Marwan Barghouthi, ridiculed the ceasefire reached in Paris as useless. That
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The 'Battle for Jerusalem':
Assessing Strategy and Tactics
Uneven press coverage and shocking television footage have skewed analysis of the ongoing "Battle for Jerusalem"--the week-old explosion of violence that has swept from the Temple Mount/Haram al-Sharif, to the West Bank, Gaza and Arab population centers in Israel. Seen in political and historical context, current events actually highlight a
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Vice Presidential Candidates on the Middle East
"We've made significant progress because of leadership on the part of many in Israel, as well as in the Arab world... I guess the frustration that many of us feel is that we haven't yet been able to, sort of, put final closure to it. But I hope that we'll
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Brief Analysis
The Israeli Arabs:
Defending al-Aqsa or Fighting for Equality?
The riots and violent demonstrations of Israeli Arab citizens in the last few days have been the most violent in 18 years and can be compared only to the violent protests that occurred in response to the massacres in the Palestinian refugee camps of Sabra and Shatilah by Christian Phalanges
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Brief Analysis
Presidential Candidates on the Middle East
"There can be no lasting peace if the Israelis, for whatever reason, feel like they must accept an agreement because it makes us [Americans] happy." --Bush, as reported in the Associated Press, September 6, 2000 "If elected president, I will begin the process of moving the U.S. ambassador to the
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In-Depth Reports
Dangerous Drift:
Russia's Middle East Policy
With the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War, Russian superpower presence in the Middle East faded, and since 1991, a vision of Russian national interest in the region has been missing. Pushed by a succession of narrow domestic corporate and bureaucratic interests, as well
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Brief Analysis
The Final Months:
Clinton Administration Options on the Peace Process
With talks completed between senior Israeli and Palestinian negotiators at a northern Virginia hotel, following Monday evening's tête-à-tête between Ehud Barak and Yasir Arafat, this week has marked the beginning of the Clinton administration's last big push to achieve Israeli-Palestinian peace. As the countdown to January 20, 2001 proceeds, the
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Saddam and the Economic Lever:
Whither Sanctions?
A UN approved Jordanian "humanitarian" flight into Baghdad today punctuates a month of air travel to Iraq unprecedented since 1991. The flight, following similar flights in recent weeks by France and Russia, is significant as Jordan is a key U.S. ally and a recipient of substantial U.S. foreign assistance. The
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Iraq:
Prospects for an 'October Surprise'?
Iraqi actions of recent weeks-- renewed threats against Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, violations of Saudi air space by Iraqi combat aircraft, and a belligerent speech by President Saddam Husayn inciting OPEC against the U.S.-- have stoked concerns that Iraq may seek to foment a crisis this autumn while American attention
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The OPEC Summit in Caracas:
A Testing Time for Oil
Does this week's summit of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, mark the return of OPEC as a force in world politics and economics? Not really, though oil market conditions this winter may put OPEC members in a powerful position. Background: OPEC's Role In
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Peace on Three Fronts
On September 16, 2000, Shimon Peres, Israeli minister for regional cooperation, former Israeli prime minister, and the longest serving member of the Israeli Knesset, delivered a keynote address at The Washington Institute's Weinberg Founders Conference. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. Israel needs to make three different
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Shimon Peres
Brief Analysis
Prospects for Ending the Conflict:
A Palestinian View
The wishes of the Palestinian and Israeli peoples and the situation in which they find themselves mandate a resolution to the conflict. The fact that all three parties--Americans, Palestinians and Israelis--are motivated to reach a deal quickly makes this goal more readily attainable. However, in spite of the wish to
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