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Brief Analysis
Iran's Burgeoning Discontent
On May 22, 2002, Iranians demonstrated in the heart of Tehran, chanting antigovernment slogans. Riot police clashed with protestors on Vali Asr Avenue, the city's main thoroughfare. The protest came five days after security services sealed off the streets leading to Arak University, where student protestors had barricaded themselves. On
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Brief Analysis
Europe and Middle East Terrorism
As President George W. Bush completes his latest European trip -- one highlighted by a symbolic Memorial Day speech in Normandy that underscored the link between America's past wars and the current war on terror -- his European Union (EU) hosts have begun to implement a policy on terrorism that
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Don't Engage the Mullahs
On June 10, European Union foreign ministers may send a deathblow to Iran's reformers. On the table is a trade and cooperation pact with the Islamic Republic. Prominent EU bureaucrats such as External Affairs Commissioner Chris Patten strongly support the measure, arguing, "there is absolutely no dispute on the importance
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Articles & Testimony
New Follies on the Mideast
The US administration should be wary of three "conventional wisdoms" that have stealthily displaced lessons from years of experience promoting Arab-Israeli peace. These ideas pretend to offer the promise of true conflict resolution. They sound logical and reasonable. But they are wrong in conception and would be reckless in practice
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
PLOCCA 2002:
Empty Words
The State Department recently submitted its semiannual Palestine Liberation Organization Commitments Compliance Act (PLOCCA) report to Congress, assessing PLO and Palestinian Authority (PA) compliance with commitments made under the Israeli-Palestinian peace accords during the period June 15, 2001–December 15, 2001. The report acknowledges some PA shortcomings over the reporting period
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Defanging Iran Could Solidify U.S.-Russia Ties
There is a rub-your-eyes quality to the summit that kicks off tonight between President Bush and Russian leader Vladimir V. Putin in Russia. Erstwhile enemies are embarking on a historic new partnership. If they seize the moment, they could parlay their new friendship into solving a problem that has eluded
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David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Making Reform a Reality
Amid the gloom one feels in speaking to Israelis and Palestinians these days, I discovered something interesting in a just-completed trip to the area. Both sides have been profoundly affected by the events of the past 20 months. Both have suffered. Both are angry. Both have doubts about each other
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Anticipating Patterns of Global Terrorism 2001
The 2001 edition of Patterns of Global Terrorism, the U.S. government's preeminent annual accounting of international terrorism, is slated for release tomorrow, a few weeks later than its usual April unveiling. The delay is presumably the result of the sharp rise in international terror activity in 2001. The report is
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Mary Robinson, War Criminal?
An Appropriate Career Move
On September 12, 1997, United Nations Secretary-General Kofi Annan appointed Mary Robinson as the United Nation's High Commissioner for Human Rights. On paper, Robinson is as eminently qualified as any other U.N. political appointee. For seven years, she served as president of Ireland. The website of the Office of the
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Place in the Axis:
Signs of Movement?
Near the end of the Clinton administration, some analysts expressed a degree of hope that Iran's reform movement would inject some measure of pragmatism into Iranian foreign policy. That hope seems to have faded. The Bush administration has established terrorism and proliferation -- two areas in which Iran has been
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Ray Takeyh
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Promoting America's Image Abroad:
The Impact on the War against Terrorism
The United States is viewed with suspicion by much of the rest of the world, and its motives are consistently questioned for several reasons. This reality can be addressed through actionable goals. First, the United States is perceived as being too big, a hyperpower whose global reach is threatening. Second
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Brief Analysis
From Armed Struggle to Reform:
A Textual Analysis of Arafat's Ramallah Address
Speaking to the Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) in Ramallah yesterday, Palestinian leader Yasir Arafat offered a new political agenda to guide the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the aftermath of Israel's Operation Defensive Shield and U.S.-led diplomatic efforts to win his release from Israeli encirclement. The main headings of that agenda
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Reforming the Palestinian Security Services
Last week, during the visit of Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon, President George W. Bush announced the need to "immediately begin to help rebuild a security force in Palestine that will fight terror, that will bring some stability to the region." He also stated that Central Intelligence Agency director George
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Articles & Testimony
The Saudis and Saddam
Last week, the New York Times's Patrick E. Tyler reported that President Bush and Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia had agreed on a new strategy of joint action and pressure to break the deadlock in the Middle East crisis. American officials would talk bluntly with Prime Minister Ariel Sharon
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Intra-Likud Power Struggle and Israeli National Elections
The Likud Central Committee meets on Sunday to discuss a resolution opposing Palestinian statehood. Such a resolution could be seen as an important declarative step, despite its lack of legal significance (Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has publicly endorsed the idea of Palestinian statehood—albeit in vague terms). Although a vote on
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Brief Analysis
An International Force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip:
The Security Aspects
On Tuesday, former president Bill Clinton joined others in advocating a U.S.-led international force in the West Bank and Gaza Strip. Several frameworks for such an intervention have been proposed, ranging from monitoring missions to full-fledged international trusteeship over the territories. Underlying these ideas is a lack of confidence in
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Articles & Testimony
Target All Terror
The threat of devastating terrorist attacks targeting Americans still is very real despite the near-hysterical, though unsubstantiated, warnings of al-Qaida's plans to strike at everything from banks to grocery stores. Based on intelligence found in Afghanistan, 15 people were arrested in Singapore for planning to bomb the U.S. Embassy, American
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Qaedat al-Jihad:
New Name on the Road to Palestine
Within the last month, the remaining members of al-Qaeda have begun to issue new electronic pamphlets through the websites of their supporters under the name of "Qaedat al-Jihad" (base of jihad). Usage of the internet by radical Islamists is not unprecedented, but after al-Qaeda's defeat in Afghanistan, it has become
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Brief Analysis
Iran:
Scared Straight?
On January 29, President George W. Bush caused considerable consternation among foreign policy analysts by referring to an "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address. The analysts worried that the president's castigation of Iran would embolden hardliners who routinely exploit external threats as a means of deflecting
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Ray Takeyh
Brief Analysis
The Return of Palestinian Nationalist Terrorism
The State Department's annual Patterns of Global Terrorism report, which is scheduled for release in late May, is set to be a much longer and more detailed document than before. Among the many issues the report will have to address is the resurrection of secular Palestinian terrorist groups, some of
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Matthew Levitt
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