Policy Analysis

Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia The emergence of a nuclear Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a heightened risk of conflict, and possibly nuclear war. This raises several questions: How close is

Yemen has emerged of late as one of the more fertile locations for Al Qaeda activity. Al Qaeda's Yemeni affiliate, the Islamic Army of Aden-Abyan (IAA), has executed a number of spectacular attacks against Western interests in recent years. It was responsible for the 1998 kidnapping of sixteen Western tourists

Will the Transatlantic Split Be Mended? NATO's Istanbul summit, to be held on June 28-29, will be historic, marking the first such meeting in which the organization's seven new Eastern European members will participate. In fact, with these additions, NATO now borders Russia. Despite the organization's enlargement, however, a transatlantic

Three Americans murdered in Saudi capital, Riyadh, in just two weeks. Two of them beheaded, gruesomely hacked off with a knife rather than severed with an axe. There can be few surer ways of attracting the attention of the American public. But then the leader of the gang of Islamic

When the IDF withdrew from southern Lebanon in May 2000, Hizballah realized that it had to change direction somewhat, primarily because it had lost its avowed justification (and any hint of international legitimacy) for carrying out attacks from Lebanon. Accordingly, Shaykh Hassan Nasrallah, the group's secretary-general, instantly changed his rhetoric

There have been several positive developments in Iraq in the past several weeks: An interim government was formed and the largely discredited Iraqi Governing Council was disbanded. The U.N. Security Council unanimously embraced the new Iraqi government and declared that it should be sovereign even on security matters. After months

On June 10-13, elections were held throughout Europe for the European Parliament (EP), the institution that represents the peoples of the twenty-five member states of the European Union (EU). The results indicated a mixture of uninterest (as evidenced by low voter turnout) and a pattern of electorates punishing their incumbent

Despite recent events, there are several reasons for cautious optimism in Israel. First, many remain hopeful that the war in Iraq will have some positive consequences. Second, a growing sense of realism has emerged among Israelis and Palestinians alike. Third, Yasir Arafat's intifada has failed, both politically and in terms

On June 6, 2004, the Israeli cabinet authorized (by a 14-7 margin) preparations for a possible Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. The authorization called for a final decision to be made about the Gaza settlements by March 2005. In the meantime, Israeli national security advisor Maj. Gen. Giora Eiland is heading

During late May and early June 2004, Muqtada al-Sadr's revolt was challenged by continuing coalition military action and mounting Shi'i political and religious pressure. His militia was increasingly on the defensive, clinging tightly to defensive positions near key holy sites and disappearing from the streets whenever coalition military operations became

Muqtada al-Sadr represents a serious long-term political and military challenge to the coalition and the new Iraqi government. Open warfare between Sadr and the coalition first emerged on April 4, 2004, with "uprisings" by his militia, the so-called Mahdi Army, in Baghdad and across southern Iraq. Although Sadr has not

On May 17, 2004, Israeli justice minister Yosef (Tommy) Lapid addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Mr. Lapid became head of the Shinui Party in 2000. Under his leadership, Shinui has rapidly grown in popularity and is now the third-largest faction in the 120-member Knesset and the second-largest in

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is meeting this week in Beirut, where the cartel is expected to confirm a higher production ceiling that should lead to a decrease in international oil prices. Nevertheless, the sharp price hikes seen during the past few weeks have rekindled questions about OPEC's

Many Americans, feeling that we did not have enough troops in Iraq, were pleased when the Defense Department announced last month that 20,000 more soldiers were being sent to put down the insurgency and help rebuild the country. Unfortunately, few realized that many of these soldiers would serve long after

In recent weeks, the Bush administration has circulated a revised draft of its Greater Middle East Initiative, a plan designed to support political, economic and social reform throughout the Arab and Muslim worlds. Reportedly, the new draft -- a version of which will be presented at the G8 summit in

BOOK REVIEW The Connection: How al Qaeda's Collaboration With Saddam Hussein Has Endangered America By Stephen F. Hayes HarperCollins. 194 pp. $19.95 Proponents of the war in Iraq traditionally point to three primary justifications: the threat of weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Saddam Hussein's torturous regime and Iraq's ties to

The Coalition security policy in Iraq has evolved in important ways since the major public diplomacy setback of the Abu Ghraib prison abuse scandal and the dual security challenges in the Fallujah-Ramadi area and the Shiite south during April and May. The actions taken by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA)

Wars are ill-judged by their military outcomes or by the political repercussions that may follow in their wake. They often unleash social and political forces the ultimate impact of which can only be discerned years on. And they frequently produce unintended consequences that can pose complex and vexing challenges of

The implications of the assault on al-Khobar are huge. It confirms that there has been a significant shift in the pattern of terror attacks in Saudi Arabia; the battle between Osama bin Laden and the royal House of Saud is shifting gear. Although the casualties are far fewer than those

Following Israel's recent raid in Rafah, Turkish prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan condemned Israel's actions as "state terrorism" while Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul hinted that strains had emerged in the Turkish-Israeli relationship. In general, Turkey's governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) has lately adopted an alarmingly critical attitude toward Israel