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In-Depth Reports
Breaking the Deadlock:
Options for the Future (Part II)
This presentation will expound on security and coexistence, an alternative approach to breaking the deadlock between Israel and the Palestinians. But first, a discussion of the strategic conflict is needed. This conflict stems from the strength and development in the Middle East, coupled with the existence of hostility and hatred
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In-Depth Reports
Breaking the Deadlock:
Options for the Future (Part I)
Mr. Chairman, Mr. Satloff:, dear friends, ladies and gentlemen. Please allow me to say first that I changed my mind three times before this meeting so as to engineer a successful meeting for this institute and its anniversary of the foundation, which we highly appreciate. And I hope, I'm sure
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Revolutionary Guard Commander Sends a Warning
Remarks last week by Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commander Yahya Rahim Safavi during a closed meeting with IRGC officers -- leaked to the Iranian press -- underscore the growing impatience of the country's conservative hardliners with the liberal trend of the Khatami government, Iran's declared intention to adhere to
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Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
U.S. Policy in the Gulf:
Five Years of Dual Containment
It is a great pleasure to be here this evening to speak to this audience on the subject of U.S. policy in the Gulf. I would especially like to thank Rob Satloff for inviting me. Five years ago, of course, my predecessor, Martin Indyk, addressed the Institute on our policy
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In-Depth Reports
The Oslo Impasse:
Where Do We Go from Here?
Keynote address by Bruce Riedel. With Ariel Sharon, Ahmed Qurei (Abu Ala), Dori Shadmon, Khalil Shikaki, Daniel Schorr, and Morton M. Kondracke.
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Articles & Testimony
The Key to Peace Is Fidelity to the Oslo Accords
The Israeli-Palestinian peace process, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright says, is "in grave danger." Why? There are two main reasons. The first should be obvious: The Oslo accords have yet to produce very much peace. More Israelis have died in the 4 1/2 years since Oslo than did during the
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
New Egyptian Satellite Latest Sign of Battle for the Airwaves
The successful launch of the $158 million Nilesat communications satellite last week is yet another sign of dramatic changes underway in Arab broadcasting and communications. The outcome of those changes will shape American challenges, threats and opportunities in the Arab world in the coming decade. The Egyptian-owned satellite, built by
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Jon B. Alterman
Brief Analysis
London Peace Talks Will Boost Blair and May Shift Europe's Role
On Monday, May 4, the U.S.-brokered peace talks involving Israel and the Palestinian Authority will be held in London. Few expect progress in those talks. But the occasion might serve to enhance the role of the European Union (EU), and particularly Britain, in the peace process, making it a more
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Politics and the Peace Process
During the period when his movement's goal was the destruction of Israel, Yasser Arafat developed a style of leadership that allowed him to deal effectively with the Palestinian people and the Arab countries. That style was for all power to be centralized and personalized, although non-dictatorial. This leadership style allowed
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Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Egypt's Economic Reform:
Is It for Real?
Throughout its reform program, Egypt has established a pattern of reform that avoids the problems of the Southeast Asian economies in three key ways: First, Egypt has not run a large deficit in the balance of payments current account. Egypt's current account deficit is of the order of a couple
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Brief Analysis
Sudan May Emerge As Irritant to U.S.-Egyptian Ties
As President Clinton toured Africa earlier this month, seven U.S. government officials met with Sudanese rebel leaders in Asmara. The meeting followed months of signs that the U.S. government is stepping up efforts to weaken if not overthrow the Sudanese government. At the same time, ties between the governments of
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Jon B. Alterman
Articles & Testimony
Irish Pact Is Mixed Model for Mideast
What do Middle Easterners have to learn from the Northern Ireland peace accord? Other than the common legacy of terrorism and the shedding of innocent blood, the two conflicts are fundamentally different and the solutions reached at Stormont last week and in Oslo in 1993 are very different, too. But
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
The State Department's 1997 Terrorism Report:
Issues to Watch
The Department of State will soon issue Patterns of Global Terrorism 1997, its authoritative survey of trends and developments in international terrorism. Its credibility requires fair, objective, and comprehensive reporting of all relevant documented facts, complemented by convincing circumstantial evidence, concerning the activities of terrorist organizations and the role of
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Brief Analysis
The Khatami Phenomenon in Iran:
The Beginning of the End for the Islamic Republic?
The only people who do not realize that the Islamic revolution is over are some in Washington and those in power in Tehran. The revolutionary zeal and popularity is gone. In many ways, Iran today is like the Soviet Union under Gorbechev, with the critical difference that the transition away
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Brief Analysis
Enhancing Public Preparedness for Chemical and Biological Terrorism
The crisis with Iraq, the decision to immunize U.S. troops against anthrax, and recent incidents in the U.S. and Britain (including at least one hoax) have together raised the American public's awareness of the threat posed by chemical and biological (CB) terrorism. Heightened awareness, however, has not been matched by
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Conundrum of 'Further Redeployments':
Does Oslo Offer Its Own Solution?
The peace process, says the State Department spokesman, is in "dire straits." That is the assessment following Special Middle East Coordinator Dennis Ross's trip to the Middle East, in which no solution was reached for a key element of the current impasse: the question of the second and third redeployments
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Robert Satloff
In-Depth Reports
Sadat and His Legacy:
Egypt and the World, 1977-1997
Introduction Anwar Sadat remains a controversial figure in the Middle East. Praised as a prophet and cursed as a traitor, neither his death in 1981 nor the passage of time have resolved the ongoing debate about the man and his legacy. There is not yet an authoritative biography of Sadat
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Jon B. Alterman
Articles & Testimony
Missiles and Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) in Iraq and Iran:
Current Developments and Potential for Future Surprises
The following analysis was prepared for the Commission to Assess the Ballistic Missile Threat to the United States (The Rumsfeld Commission), March 23, 1998. This paper will attempt to answer the following questions: 1) What are the current missile capabilities of Iraq and Iran? 2) What kind of WMD payloads
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Israel and the Peace Process:
An Observer's View
Netanyahu as politician: When asked about himself, Netanyahu replies that he is neither Shimon Peres nor Yitzhak Shamir. Indeed, Netanyahu is not the ideologue some think he is: he has met with Arafat, he never speaks of "Greater Israel" and by agreeing to the Hebron Accord of January 1997, he
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
MENABANK:
Would U.S. Membership Help the Peace Process?
What Is MENABANK? The idea for a regional development bank in the Middle East has been around for years. However, practical work for creation of a bank only began when the four core peace process parties—Israel, the Palestinian Authority, Jordan, and Egypt—jointly proposed the creation of the Bank in 1995
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