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Brief Analysis
Arab States vs. Islamists:
Past Record, Future Prospects
The record of prediction about Islamism as a political force has been unimpressive. The failure is due to inadequacies in conceptualizing what is known, more than any shortage of raw data. What Is to Be Analyzed? Islamist movements differ from Islamic movements as much as Arabists differ from Arabs. Islamists
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Articles & Testimony
Middle East Assassinations, 50 Years On
On Friday, July 20, 1951 - exactly 50 years ago today Jordan's King Abdullah bin Hussein was walking out of Jerusalem's al-Aksa Mosque following noontime prayers when he was shot dead by an unemployed Palestinian tailor. Twenty years ago this October, Egypt's Anwar Sadat was presiding over an annual military
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Islamic Palestine or Liberated Palestine?
The Relationship between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas
Hamas has succeeded, through its popular influence and close relations with leading elements in the Palestinian Authority (PA), in making some important moves toward the "Islamization" of the PA/Fatah on one hand and a large part of the Palestinian public on the other. The longstanding rivalry between Hamas and the
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Articles & Testimony
Sanctions and Iraq
The supermarket in Dahuk was apologetic: the shipment of Coca-Cola had not yet arrived, but would Pepsi be okay? There was plenty of fruit and vegetables, several different cuts of meat and many brands of breakfast cereal. There was no shortage of cheeses or ice cream. There were also over
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Articles & Testimony
End Dialogue If Arafat Stays Unresponsive
As he approaches the half-year mark on the job, President Bush's record on Arab-Israeli issues looks quite heartening. With wisdom born of his predecessor's sour experience, Bush has struck a balance that supports Israel's need for an end to violence, keeps PLO leader Yasser Arafat at arm's length and still
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Time for an Accounting
Secretary of State Colin Powell returned from the Middle East having won agreement between Israelis and Palestinians for a seven-day period of calm before a six-week cooling off period is to begin. But there is no calm. The violence continues daily, with each side accusing the other of violations. Without
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Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Khobar Towers, Five Years Later:
Evaluating the Criminal Justice Approach to Counterterrorism
Recent major acts of terrorism have challenged the law enforcement and foreign policy communities. Incidents such as the 1988 Lockerbie bombing, the 1993 World Trade Center bombing, the 1996 Khobar Towers bombing and the 1998 bombing of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania have each been handled using law enforcement
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Brief Analysis
Northern Iraq, Sanctions, and U.S. Iraq Policy
Iraq remains at the forefront of U.S. and international attention. Many contentious issues -- such as sanctions, weapons of mass destruction, and the future political disposition of the country -- remain unresolved. In analyzing the source of Iraq's problems, it is useful to compare those portions of Iraq under the
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Brief Analysis
Challenges Facing the Palestinian Authority and the Peace Process
The current Palestinian-Israeli tension is creating an explosive situation throughout the region -- a situation that seriously threatens regional stability and affects the security, economic, and geopolitical interests of the United States as well as those of every Middle East country. The international community has a real interest in moving
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Brief Analysis
Ceasefire Monitoring and the U.S. Role:
What Powell Did and Didn't Say
As car bombs inside Israel and the Israeli targeting of Islamic Jihad operatives postpones for another day the start of the seven-day "no incident period" arranged by Secretary of State Colin Powell last week, yesterday's retaliatory attack by Israeli F-16 aircraft against a Syrian radar station in the Bekaa Valley
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Popular Unrest in Algeria:
A Significant Challenge to Stability
Embattled by popular protests for more than two months, the Algerian government -- in advance of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika's historic July 12 White House visit -- faces the most significant challenge to its authority in nearly a decade. Defying a recent government ban on protest marches, the Berber-led opposition has
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Brief Analysis
Confusing Signals out of Saudi Arabia
On Friday in Europe, Secretary of State Colin Powell is set to meet Crown Prince Abdullah, the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia. Washington's relationship with the world's largest oil exporter has become strained for reasons more complicated than Crown Prince Abdullah's recent reluctance to meet President Bush at the
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Jordan and the Islamists:
Unfinished Business
As Secretary of State Colin Powell arrives in Tel Aviv today to shore up the shaky Israeli-Palestinian ceasefire, across the river in Jordan, King Abdullah is quietly coping with his own separate but related crisis. On June 14, without any prior warning, Ibrahim Ghawsheh, the Hamas spokesman expelled from the
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
From Tenet to Powell:
Assessing a Policy in Flux
With Secretary of State Colin Powell's trip to the Middle East this week, following on Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon's visit to Washington, U.S. diplomacy in the Arab-Israeli arena will reach its most intensive level since the advent of the Bush administration. The rationale for this heightened diplomacy is, in
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Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Challenges Facing Israel Abroad and at Home
Despite the violence and terror of the past months, 60 percent of Israelis are still ready to make painful compromises in order to achieve peace-if they see that they have a viable partner. The Israelis have already decided that in order to live in peace they will need to make
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Brief Analysis
Egypt, Jordan, Israel, and the Palestinian Authority:
Impressions from a Regional Tour
At Camp David/Taba, the Palestinians left the Israeli bride at the altar, so to speak, by turning down the agreement. Regional actors have responded differently. Some Arab leaders, especially Egyptians, are in denial, arguing that former Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's proposals are still valid and that the peace process
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
Sulaymaniyah Dispatch
The Azad pharmacy in Sulaymaniyah is stocked with medicines. So is the Shara pharmacy next door. In the cool early evening hours, the street bustles with shoppers, some of whom drift inside. They hand over prescriptions, pay the equivalent of a few cents, and walk out with antibiotics for their
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Brief Analysis
Israel's National Unity Governments: A Retrospective
Friday, June 15 marks day one hundred for the Sharon administration and Israel's sixth national unity government. The occasion warrants a look back at the five previous Israeli unity governments. Israel's First National Unity Government (1967-1969) Between 1949 and 1967, Israel witnessed thirteen separate governmental rotations, each coalition surviving for
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Brief Analysis
Iran's Hardline Vigilantes and the Prospects for Reform
On June 5, 2001, Michael Rubin, a visiting scholar at The Washington Institute, addressed Institute's Special Policy Forum. In 2000–2001, Dr. Rubin was a visiting professor at three universities in the Kurdish region of northern Iraq. This forum marked the publication of his new Institute study, Into the Shadows: Radical
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Brief Analysis
Khatami's Re-Election and Iran's Pressing Problems
Tomorrow, Mohammed Khatami is sure to be re-elected president of Iran. But that is not likely to make much difference to Iranians, as Khatami has no coherent program for any of Iran's three pressing problems: economic revitalization, political liberalization, and reduction of security threats. Even though Khatami has shown disinterest
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Patrick Clawson
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