Policy Analysis

Iranian Kurdish opposition groups remain committed to regime change in Iran, but external and internal factors contributed to the caution with which they approached the recent conflict.

Until now, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had been happy with the comparisons his hard-core supporters make between him and Ali ibn Abi Talib—Shia Islam’s first divinely ordained Imam. Ironically, this insistence on Khamenei’s infallability, combined with the current acquiescence to strategic flexibility or policy concession, is eroding that sense of trust with Khamenei’s core base of hardline supporters.

In negotiations, the Iranian regime prefers to operate discreetly and secretly, allowing Tehran to shape the information spectrum and protract talks to buy time and wear down their negotiation counterparts. By shining light on the diplomatic process, U.S. policymakers can provide a counter-narrative that takes to task Iranian intransigence and provides accurate information for the Iranian public.

While Iraqi fears of a resurgence of ISIS are legitimate, understanding the realities and opportunities presented with Syria's new government while rejecting sectarian rhetoric are vital for the future of Iraq's relationship with its neighbor.

As long as the Islamic Republic’s decisions are dictated by rigid ideological imperatives, any shift in Tehran toward pragmatism in response to the new Trump Administration will likely be superficial at best.

The ongoing tensions in Nineveh's municipal council highlight how regional powers vie for influence in Iraq's local elections.

Oman is actively stepping up its coastal security in light of ongoing challenges from the "axis of resistance."

The debate over making Saturday the official second day of the weekend nationwide instead of Thursday has become a hot topic in Iran in recent months, highlighting the clash between the the regime’s ideology and the country’s economic reality.

The Iranian model of creating and supporting proxy groups is consistent across the “Shia Crescent,” but recently Tehran has begun employing new and troubling tactics that threaten to only expand their influence.

Although many in Erbil lament Iran’s significant influence in Iraq, President Barzani now seems open to leveraging its power to address the KRI’s election dispute.

After the killing of Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani, Esmail Qaani may have inherited a role for which he was not prepared, bringing instead a new style of leadership to the IRGC.

While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations.

Using multiple militias and operating units, Tehran aims to drive the Americans out of eastern Syria, fill the resulting security vacuum, and assert indirect control.

Given the ways in which Iranian influence has grown elsewhere in the region, there are fears that the Sudanese army, with its Islamist orientation, will morph into a militia group similar to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, ultimately exerting Iran’s will in exchange for funding and military support.

Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.

The multinational security operation Prosperity Guardian—of which Bahrain is a member—has the potential to protect trade in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, curb piracy and armed robbery on commercial ships, preserve supply and energy chains, and enhance regional security and prosperity.

The Islamic Republic’s position that it is merely carrying out a religious mandate is disingenuous, as is clear from Khomeini’s own religious writings and from the history of the hijab in Iran. Whereas the concept of sitr remains separated from politics in Iran, the hijab is now unequivocally a political concept.

The SDF’s current role in Deir ez-Zor and the local grievances surrounding it requires an understanding of the origin of its entry into the region, along with the underlying tension between U.S., Iranian, and Syrian regime interests there.

Iran has stepped up pressure on Baghdad and Erbil to disarm and relocate Iranian Kurdish opposition parties in the Kurdistan Region amidst ongoing disputes between Erbil and Baghdad over budget and oil revenues.

The Islamic Republic of Iran over several years has gained a significant foothold in Iraq, spreading its influence and agenda throughout Iraqi daily life.