What’s the story?
Barack Obama has declared that the US and its allies will “degrade and ultimately destroy” the global threat of Islamic State (Isis) by targeting its bases and fighters in Iraq and Syria. The US will lead “a comprehensive and sustained counter-terrorism strategy”, including a “systematic campaign of air strikes”. The first strike happened on Monday “as part of our expanded efforts beyond protecting our own people and humanitarian missions to hit Isil [Islamic State] targets as Iraqi forces go on offence,” according to Centcom, the US Central Command. Almost 40 countries have endorsed the campaign. According to the Washington Post, Obama has also authorised targeted assassinations of key Isis figures, including Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the movement’s self-declared but reclusive leader.
How this happened
Earlier this year, Isis (also known as IS and Isil) – a radical offshoot of al-Qaida – made rapid advances across Iraq, seizing swaths of territory in bloody battles and declaring a caliphate, or Islamic state, in areas of northern and western Iraq and eastern Syria. In August, the US began air strikes against Isis targets around besieged areas where thousands of people were trapped and in extreme danger. More recently, Isis jihadis have released videos showing the murder of two US journalists and a British aid worker, galvanising efforts to form an international coalition to defeat the radical Islamist group. Isis has threatened to kill a fourth hostage, British aid worker Alan Henning.
Last week, the CIA published an updated assessment of the numbers of Isis fighters, from 10,000 in May to currently between 20,000 and 31,500. It said recruitment had shot up following battlefield successes and Isis’s declaration of a caliphate. Recruits have joined Isis from more than 50 countries.
The US has already carried out at least 162 air strikes in recent weeks, unleashing more than 250 bombs and missiles on Isis targets, such as vehicles and checkpoints. Around 1,700 non-combat US troops are operating in Iraq, training and advising the Iraqi army. In a national address last week on the eve of the 13th anniversary of 9/11, Obama announced an escalation of the military strategy with expanded targets and a drive to build an international coalition behind the air operation while insisting no US combat troops will operate on the ground in Iraq or Syria.
The issues
Getting sucked into the civil war in Syria Obama has said US forces will not hesitate to take military action against Isis targets in Syria, but the US and its allies are anxious that the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, should not benefit from the military campaign. Military action on Syrian soil without Assad’s consent – or a UN resolution – would be problematic legally and politically. Assad’s forces have been bombing Isis in northern Syria and, although the Pentagon has said it will not coordinate military action with the Syrian government, we could see both the US-led coalition and the Syrian regime attacking the same targets.
Building an international coalition Nearly 40 countries have offered to help the US defeat Isis, pledging to use “whatever means necessary”, including military action. Ten Arab countries have endorsed the effort, but none has publicly committed to military action – although several, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, are believed to have privately indicated willingness to participate in air strikes. The presence of Arab countries – particularly those with a Sunni majority – is especially important to the US after the coalition against Saddam Hussein was seen as a western axis in the Middle East. Turkey, the only Muslim member of Nato, has resisted pressure to join in air strikes or allow its bases to be used for strikes. Iran, which is engaged in fighting Isis in northern Iraq, has not been invited to join the coalition.
Limitations of air power The US and its allies are using reconnaissance flights and drones, along with Iraqi intelligence collected on the ground, to identify targets. But the limitations of their own forces on the ground will make identification – and confirmation that targets have been struck or eliminated – harder. Military analysts have warned that air power may not be enough to achieve the goal of destroying Isis. Jeffrey White, a former Defence Intelligence Agency analyst who is now at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “Air power is not a magic wand to make the enemy go away. It cannot seize and hold ground. It is most useful when combined with other military capabilities like conventional or special forces. Most enemies can and will adapt to air attack, which means the use of air power also has to be adaptive. Nevertheless, air power can impose limits on enemy operations and degrade his capabilities.”
US casualties and mission creep Obama has acknowledged there are inherent dangers of US casualties, which will cause him political difficulties at home. “Any time we take military action, there are risks involved, especially to the servicemen and women who carry out those missions,” he said. There is also the danger of mission creep. In the space of the past few weeks, the US has moved from taking action to protect refugees to setting itself the goal of destroying Isis. “The blunt truth is that ‘boots on the ground’ is already the order of the day and that the mission is accelerating rather than creeping. We are now at the start of another war – and one that will be most likely be measured not in days or months but in years,” wrote Paul Rogers, peace studies professor at Bradford university.
How can I find out more?
Patrick Cockburn’s essay on Isis in the London Review of Books is good background to the jihadi group’s gains earlier this summer, as is his book The Jihadis Return - Isis and the New Sunni Uprising. Follow Guardian experts Martin Chulov (@martinchulov) and Ian Black (@ian_black) on Twitter, Charles Lister, visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Centre (@charles_lister), analyst Hassan Hassan, at the Delma Institute, Abu Dhabi (@hxhassan) and Hayder al-Khoei, at Chatham House (@Hayder_alKhoei).