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The Turkey-Syria Military Balance

Soner Cagaptay and Unal

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Jane's Islamic Affairs Analyst

May 2012


After the number of Syrian refugees entering Turkey reached 25,000 in April, public statements by senior Turkish officials began raising the possibility of military action. Specifically, Ankara has hinted at the possibility of establishing a buffer zone or safe haven inside Syria to defend the civilian population and contain the developing humanitarian crisis on the border. In the end, Turkey's decision on intervention will be shaped as much by regional and global politics as by Ankara's military assessment of Assad's forces.