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Brief Analysis
What the New Gaza Administrative Committee Needs to Succeed
The NCAG’s viability will depend on producing quick, tangible deliverables, so the Trump administration, the Board of Peace, and the High Representative should stand ready to provide the requisite support on staving off Hamas and PA obstructionism and cutting through Israeli red tape.
Feb 5, 2026
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Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
Throwing Water on Turkey’s Warming Ties with China
Concerns about the Uyghur file, investment risks, and other issues are still constraining the relationship to a certain extent, but fortifying those restraints will require Washington to exert further leverage on several fronts.
Feb 4, 2026
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Soner Cagaptay
Ela Peterson
Articles & Testimony
Peace Through Leverage in Gaza: How to Limit Hamas’s Influence and Ensure Israel’s Compliance
The Trump administration needs to exert pressure on each of the “two Gazas,” pushing Hamas and its regional interlocutors on disarmament while pressing Israel to play a more constructive role and conduct phased withdrawals when merited.
Feb 2, 2026
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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Another Iran “Deal” Is Less Important Than Exerting U.S. Leverage
U.S. envoys should be focused less on making a deal and more on how they can use the prospect of imminent military strikes to secure concessions on the nuclear issue, missile threats, treatment of protesters, and other matters.
Feb 4, 2026
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Michael Singh
Richard Nephew
Video
Articles & Testimony
In Lebanon, Pushing the Ball Forward Before the May Election
Without electoral law modifications, sanctions against pro-Hezbollah elites, prosecutions for long-delayed cases like the port explosion, and other urgent measures, the group and its allies could wind up regaining their grip in Lebanon during the next round of nationwide voting.
Feb 3, 2026
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Unifying Syria Without Reigniting War
Full Kurdish integration in Syria is one of the most important projects in the Middle East, but Washington must ensure it is accomplished without further violence, and without blowing the activities of various foreign players out of proportion.
Jan 30, 2026
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James Jeffrey
Video
Articles & Testimony
Targeting Hezbollah’s Broader Ecosystem of Power
The ongoing disarmament process is crucial, but completing it will be impossible without more attention to Hezbollah’s cash economy, judicial interference, political intimidation, and other elements of domestic power.
Feb 3, 2026
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Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy Toward Lebanon: Obstacles to Dismantling Hezbollah’s Grip on Power
Meeting the moment requires greater investment and attention from Washington, including additional targeted security assistance, robust diplomatic efforts, expansion of the U.S. team tasked with handling the Lebanon file, and more.
Feb 3, 2026
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Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
What If the United States Doesn’t Strike Iran?
No matter what President Trump may say about potentially securing “a good deal” from Iran, refraining from military action after weeks of dire U.S. warnings would likely convince Tehran that it can strike fear in other governments.
Feb 3, 2026
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
EU Takes Aim at Tehran: IRGC Terror Listing Opens New Front in Europe’s Iran Policy
Besides the welcome symbolic value of taking action amid bloody regime crackdowns inside Iran, the designation gives multilateral law enforcement agencies and individual member states a powerful new tool set for limiting terrorist plots and criminal activity on their soil.
Feb 3, 2026
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Michael Jacobson
Video
Articles & Testimony
Securing Syria’s Transformation by Diminishing Russia’s Influence
Russia has been quietly reconsolidating its military patronage, energy ties, and future business prospects in Syria for more than a year, but Washington has multiple options for countering Moscow’s long game.
Feb 3, 2026
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
U.S. Military Options in Iran: Means in Search of an End
Military strikes, stringent sanctions enforcement, and help for the opposition could sharpen the multiple crises that may eventually prove the regime’s undoing.
Jan 30, 2026
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Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Breaking the Deadlock in Sudan
Decisive U.S. leadership is essential to resolve worsening differences between fellow Quad members, neutralize spoilers, and ensure that Sudanese civilians—not just armed factions—shape their country’s future.
Jan 28, 2026
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Donald Booth
Areig Elhag
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Tightrope Walk Between Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Cairo will not be able to stand completely above Gulf rivalries, but tactful U.S. diplomacy on economics and regional security issues can help give Egyptian leaders enough space to continue their balancing strategy.
Jan 23, 2026
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Haisam Hassanein
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
After Ukraine:
Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East
Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.
Jan 23, 2026
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan.
Jan 22, 2026
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Areig Elhag
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s New Middle East Strategy
Moscow has certainly not left the Middle East playing field, and many countries will continue expanding their Russian ties unless Washington convinces them there are better options.
Jan 22, 2026
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares
Brief Analysis
Caught in the Crossfire: Islamic State Detention Sites at Risk
With rival forces openly warring in northeast Syria, the long-deferred challenges of identifying, securing, and repatriating IS detainees have come to a head, forcing Washington to prioritize several urgent actions and put more pressure on its partners.
Jan 22, 2026
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Devorah Margolin
Brief Analysis
Kurdish Collapse in Northeast Syria? Key Things to Watch
Washington Institute experts assess the immediate fallout of the Syrian government’s advance into SDF-held parts of the northeast, including mutual disinformation campaigns, implications for the Islamic State threat, the terms of new agreements with the Kurds, and the calculus of outside actors like the United States, Israel, and Turkey.
Jan 21, 2026
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Andrew J. Tabler
James Jeffrey
Devorah Margolin
Aaron Y. Zelin
Soner Cagaptay
Zohar Palti
Assaf Orion
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Kazakhstan and the Abraham Accords in the Critical Minerals Hedging Game
Kazakhstan's entry into the Abraham Accords may be designed to facilitate new critical minerals supply chains, reducing signatories' dependence on China.
Jan 20, 2026
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Shivane Anand
Nava Goldstein
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