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Michael Knights: Gorran already changed
the system
10.8.2009
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August 10, 2009
SULAIMANIYAH,
Kurdistan region 'Iraq', —
Michael Knights is a Boston-based Lafer fellow of
The Washington Institute, specializing in the
military and security affairs of Iraq, Iran, and the
Persian Gulf states. He worked with the U.S.
Department of Defense and worked as a defense
journalist for the Gulf States Newsletter and Jane's
Intelligence Review.
Knights is also an expert on Kurds and Kirkuk. On
August 3 he wrote about 'Managed Democracy' Gives
Way in Iraqi Kurdistan for the Washington Institute.
He was also one of the authors of the report “The
Future of the Iraqi Kurds”.
American security expert Knights describes Jalal
Talabani as one of the last great statesmen and
thinks the Change list
(Gorran) already changed the system.
Do you think there was any
fraud in the elections?
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Michael Knights is a Boston-based
Lafer fellow of The Washington Institute,
specializing in the military and security affairs of
Iraq, Iran, and the Persian Gulf states. He worked
with the U.S. Department of Defense and worked as a
defense journalist for the Gulf States Newsletter
and Jane's Intelligence Review. |
The
parliamentary and presidential elections both
witnessed surprisingly high votes for "outsider"
candidates such as the Gorran list and Dr Kamal Mirawdali.
Though only the Independent Higher Electoral
Commission is qualified to make judgments on fraud,
the high number of fraud allegations indicate that
real change was at stake in these elections.
The opposition list is
called "change", do you they can make a change to
Kurdistan's political system?
I think Gorran has already changed the Kurdish
political system by introducing a third major party.
It is now possible for new alliances to form as
parts of the KDP and PUK breakaway on an
issue-by-issue basis. At the national level,www.ekurd.net
there
is now the possibility that individual Kurdish
parties could ally with Arab groups to form new
combinations.
A lot of people think that
the real loser in the election was PUK, what do you
think about this?
It does seem that the PUK has suffered a serious
split. This is to be expected from a political
movement like the PUK, which is not just a tribal
group. The progressive politics of Sulaymaniyah were
bound to eventually result in the emergence of a
group like Gorran.
Recently Jalal Talabani
promised that he will make changes within his party,
but the opposition think he's too old for that, do
you think Talabani has the ability to reform his
party?
Jalal Talabani is one of the last great statesmen.
He will always have the ability to surprise us. The
emergence of Gorran is a wake-up call to the PUK
that it cannot be just another KDP. The PUK is a
progressive organization and needs to change with
the times. Gorran's success will help Talabani to
convince the PUK ‘old guard" that change must come.
There are feelings that PUK
and change list may form alliance in the next
cabinet, do you share this analysis?
The PUK and Gorran would make a natural grouping,
and if they drew in some Islamist and Socialist
groups, they could hold a powerful bloc in the
parliament.
Recently Maliki visited
Kurdistan and met Massoud Barzani, do you think this
will end the dispute between them or make it worse?
Maliki needs a Kurdish partner to become prime
minister again; more meetings between the two can
only be good. Behind closed doors,www.ekurd.net
Massoud Barzani and Maliki will be able to talk more
freely and say different things than they say in the
newspapers.
What is the best solution
for the Kirkuk issue?
Continue negotiations and keep them behind closed
doors. Wait until after the elections to make
announcements about Kirkuk; stop talking about the
city until 1 February 2010.
- Hold Kirkuk provincial elections at the same time
as national elections on 31 Jan 2010 using the
32-32-32-4 formula.
- Form a national unity government where Kurdish
factions are the new Iraqi prime minister's most
dependable allies.
- Prioritize an agreement on fairer federal-KRG
revenue sharing and push the issue of Kirkuk down
the line.
In the years 2010-2013, draw the US into sponsoring
a massive investment drive to improve industry,
education and housing in Kirkuk. Form a permanent
joint military command that integrates federal army
and Kirkuk police forces properly.
Hold a census in 2012 and new provincial elections
in Kirkuk in 2013 at the same time as all the other
provinces. Use the same law as all the other
provinces.
Do you think the Arab-Kurds
conflict on the disputed regions can result in a
bloody civil war?
No, but small skirmishes could occur.
Copyright, respective author or news agency,
Rudaw net
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