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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Untangling the UN’s Gaza Fatality Data
A major shift in the death toll for women and children points to deeper problems in the way OCHA is relaying data and handling questionable sources.
May 17, 2024
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Gabriel Epstein
Articles & Testimony
Some Big Decisions: What It Will Take to Repair Israel-US Ties
The two allies are unlikely to agree on everything, but they need to iron out their differences given how much is at stake.
May 17, 2024
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
How Israel’s Rafah Campaign Might Shape Hezbollah’s Operations
The U.S.-Israel rift over how to handle southern Gaza could embolden the Lebanese group to further accelerate its already heightened tempo of operations, though drawing clear deterrent lines could help limit the escalation.
May 16, 2024
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Hanin Ghaddar
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Tracking Anti-U.S. Strikes in Iraq and Syria During the Gaza Crisis
Militia Spotlight presents a regularly updated tracker with the best-known information about drone, rocket, and missile attacks against U.S. and allied targets, which have intensified since the Gaza war broke out.
May 16, 2024
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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Brussels Conference on Supporting Syria: Complex Issues Surrounding "Early Recovery"
Alignment between recovery efforts and the international coalition requires a comprehensive approach that prioritizes security, economic stabilization, and social cohesion.
May 15, 2024
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Ibrahim Murad
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Anti-Israel Surge by Iraqi Militants: Metrics and Trends
Although relatively few drones or missiles seem to make it to Israel, launches are steadily increasing, potentially inviting overt retaliation inside Iraq.
May 15, 2024
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Michael Knights
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
A Year of Arab Engagement with Assad Has Failed
The “carrots” approach only emboldened the regime to increase its smuggling of Captagon and weapons, but Caesar sanctions remain a potent stick.
May 15, 2024
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Andrew J. Tabler
Brief Analysis
An Israel-Lebanon Agreement May Not Be Worth the Costs
The lesson from past deals involving Hezbollah is clear: the group will try to pocket any U.S. concessions on the presidency and other issues while simply jettisoning whatever border commitments it may make in return.
May 14, 2024
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David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
The Arab Approach to Mediation—Reshaping Diplomacy in a Multipolar World
Given their unique cultural concepts and major economic and political clout, the Gulf states are poised to play an even more significant role in future peace and security initiatives.
Spring 2024
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Nickolay Mladenov
Articles & Testimony
Why and How to Walk Back Biden’s Suspension of Weapons Delivery to Israel
The president may have inadvertently created a cordon of immunity around Hamas in Rafah, decreased pressure on the group’s leaders to accept a cease-fire, and raised doubts among Arab partners.
May 10, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Articles & Testimony
On Israel, Biden Is No Reagan
Skewed historical comparisons do not change the fact that the president’s arms restrictions will put Israel in greater danger.
May 10, 2024
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Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Tracking Chinese Statements on the Hamas-Israel Conflict
A regularly updated compendium of Beijing’s reactions to the Gaza war, including analysis of subtle shifts in its traditional approach of trying to please all sides.
May 10, 2024
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Grant Rumley
Rebecca Redlich
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Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Articles & Testimony
What Hamas Wants in Postwar Gaza: The Power to Fight Without the Burden of Governing
The group is following Hezbollah’s playbook to a tee: first, secure victory simply by surviving, then take hold of the postwar governance structure while retaining its independent fighting force.
May 10, 2024
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
U.S. Returnees from Syria Reveal Much About the Repatriation Challenge
The latest U.S. repatriation is an important model for the international community to follow, but much work still needs to be done on resolving the precarious detainee dilemma before the situation in northeast Syria deteriorates further.
May 9, 2024
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Devorah Margolin
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Protecting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon
Given the breakdown of the Lebanese state, Arab countries' normalization with Assad, and the fragmentation of the Syrian opposition, it seems that the United States can step in to play a pivotal role in protecting Syrian refugees facing persecution.
May 8, 2024
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Ammar Musarea
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Cut Ties with Israel?
Although the latest rift is more than rhetorical, Ankara is unlikely to sever ties completely—unless Israel blocks it from participating in Gaza’s reconstruction.
May 8, 2024
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iraq’s Missed Development Pathway Highlights the Necessity of Unpopular Economic Reforms
Institutional limitations, fiscal challenges, endemic corruption, and governance shortcomings present formidable barriers to developmental pursuits.
May 8, 2024
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Mohammed Hussein
Brief Analysis
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Iran’s Attack?
Despite the success of the allied response on April 13, Iran’s attack calls into question the sustainability of the current approach, suggesting that policymakers should rethink military procurement, force posture, and deterrence in the Middle East.
May 6, 2024
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Andrew G. Clemmensen
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Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East
Articles & Testimony
A Yom Hashoah Message, from Disgust to Hope
The Gaza war has inspired prominent Arab media outlets and statesmen to come up with vile new forms of Holocaust denialism, but other voices offer a glimmer of hope.
May 5, 2024
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Robert Satloff
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Is Kataib Hezbollah Behind Saraya al-Ashtar's Claimed Attack on Israel?
The connection between exiled Bahraini terrorists and Iraq's Kataib Hezbollah is demonstrably strong and probably explains the strange incident.
May 4, 2024
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Michael Knights
Amir al-Kaabi
Hamdi Malik
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Militia Spotlight
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