Turkey

Despite long-documented public weariness with Middle East conflicts, Trump’s successor could well recognize the value of reestablishing American credibility in the region.

As Washington pushes Erdogan to act responsibly in northeast Syria, the Turkish leader may face contrary pressures from Russia and Iran, who are keeping forces on the ground to back up whatever demands are made at this week’s summit and beyond.

The Trump administration is implicitly backing Ankara’s policy imperatives for now, but its approval comes with an imminent expiration date that could arrive even sooner if the operation goes awry.

If the president insists on removing U.S. forces before conditions on the ground are sufficiently stable, he will clear the way for a terrorist resurgence.

Despite diluting certain commonalities with Europe and Washington over the past decade, Ankara still relies on the West in the trade, investment, and security realms.

Despite their limited economic relations and ongoing differences over the Uyghur issue, the two countries could grow closer if Western partners fail to provide the financial boost Turkey needs so badly.

Checking the YPG’s ascendance in Syria could bring the PKK back to the negotiating table, ultimately making Turkey more amenable to Kurdish enclaves across the border.

While much of the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, tensions are also mounting rapidly in the East Mediterranean.

If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.