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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Brief Analysis
What Turned the Battle for Tripoli?
A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.
May 6, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Conor Hiney
Articles & Testimony
Covid-19 and Middle East Proxy Wars: The Storm Before the Calm?
Although the pandemic’s full regional consequences remain murky, some early trends are becoming clear, from caution among certain proxy patrons, to escalation among others, and a looming financial crunch for all.
Apr 29, 2020
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Eurasian Wager
Many aspects of Iranian engagement with the Eurasian Economic Union seem paltry, but the bloc offers a semblance of assured trade, diplomacy, and counter-Western alignment that could still be meaningful to Tehran amid multiple crises.
Apr 27, 2020
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  • Kevjn Lim
Articles & Testimony
Resilience in Turkey
Despite Erdogan’s pandemic missteps and repressively conservative agenda, Turkey’s problem-solving opposition parties and the secularist youths who support them give hope that democracy will endure.
Apr 22, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Deniz Yuksel
Brief Analysis
Coronavirus Has Opposite Effects on Turkish Policy in Syria and Libya
Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.
Apr 17, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The Faint Red Line: How the West Should Respond to the Syria Chemical Weapons Report
Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.
Apr 13, 2020
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  • Tobias Schneider
  • Theresa Lutkefend
Articles & Testimony
As Civil War Rages, Diplomacy Fails with Libya’s Haftar
For years, international mediators have insisted that there is no military solution to the war, but it is also time to recognize that there is no diplomatic solution with Khalifa Haftar.
Apr 9, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Syria’s Three Governments Confront the Coronavirus
The rebel administration in Idlib and the Kurdish-led government in the northeast have been more proactive and transparent than the Assad regime, but their populations still need urgent, direct international aid—without the UN’s imprimatur if necessary.
Apr 1, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition
Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.
Mar 30, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
In-Depth Reports
The Outlook for Turkish Democracy:
2023 and Beyond
Over nearly two decades, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan has managed to strengthen his hold on power despite numerous political reconfigurations. With the next presidential election scheduled for 2023, many figures within his camp are already maneuvering for leverage while the opposition mulls how to defeat him. Among his potential rivals
Mar 26, 2020
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  • Nick Danforth
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Idlib May Become the Next Gaza Strip
Given the military situation on the ground and the overriding interests of each party, the jihadist-run rebel pocket will likely be further reduced into a small, overpopulated border strip north of the M4 highway.
Mar 26, 2020
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Video
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Role in Idlib and Beyond: Perspectives from Syria
How can the United States mitigate the worsening humanitarian crisis in Idlib, and what do Syrian activists on the ground want from Washington?
Mar 20, 2020
◆
  • Raed al-Saleh
  • Omar Alshogre
  • Rajaa Altalli
  • Naomi Kikoler
Articles & Testimony
The Crisis in Idlib
Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.
Mar 11, 2020
◆
  • Dana Stroul
Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.
Mar 4, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Arab, Iranian, and Turkish Responses to President Trump’s Impeachment
A survey of how regional media outlets discussed the congressional impeachment process and its potential ramifications on the 2020 presidential election.
Feb 19, 2020
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s ‘Mini Empire’ in Libya and Syria
A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.
Feb 12, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s Options for Pressuring Russia in Idlib Are Limited
Weighty domestic concerns and geopolitical fears will likely keep Erdogan from pushing too hard against the current Russian-Syrian campaign, but the parties may yet broker a temporary deal to carve the province in half.
Feb 11, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Latest Battle for Idlib Could Send Another Wave of Refugees to Europe
Various displacement scenarios may unfold as the fighting escalates, each carrying a high risk of negative humanitarian and economic consequences even if the parties live up to their promises.
Feb 10, 2020
◆
  • Fabrice Balanche
Video
Brief Analysis
The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications
Three leading experts assess the current balance of power and its potential effects on counterterrorism, refugee resettlement, governance, economics, and other crucial issues.
Jan 29, 2020
◆
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
  • Gonul Tol
  • Dana Stroul

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