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Turkey

Policy Analysis on Turkey

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Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey

Refugees are being blamed for the country’s economic and social troubles, resulting in online hate speech, vigilante violence, and further pressure on the government to change the status quo in north Syria.

Soner Cagaptay

Turkey’s Energy Confrontation with Cyprus

While much of the world is focused on the Strait of Hormuz, tensions are also mounting rapidly in the East Mediterranean.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Why the U.S. Ejected Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program, and Why the Turbulence Will Only Grow

The future of the bilateral relationship looks bleak after years of strategic divergence on crises in Iraq and Syria.

Soner Cagaptay

The Erbil Shooting: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Policy

If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.

Soner Cagaptay

Will Turkey's Purchase of Russian Missiles Rupture U.S. Ties?

How have relations between NATO allies Turkey and the United States come to the brink of historic crisis?

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

An Underdog Challenges Erdogan

The president, a former Istanbul mayor, has a rival in the current one.

Soner Cagaptay

Maps & Graphics

A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib

As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.

Fabrice Balanche

The Istanbul Revote: What Happens Next?

Four experts discuss the opposition's landslide victory and its implications for Turkish politics generally and President Erdogan's future specifically.

Soner Cagaptay
Lisel Hintz
Kemal Kirisci
Alan Makovsky

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan’s Presidential System Isn’t Working. The Istanbul Election Shows Why.

Turkey is too diverse demographically, too big economically, and too complicated politically to be governed from a presidential palace.

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Turkey and Russia Are Not Friends, Despite Appearances

The truth is that Ankara feels threatened by Moscow, but security concerns, mistrust of the West, and an inability to secure American missiles left Erdogan searching for an alternative.

Soner Cagaptay
Andy Taylor

In-Depth Reports

Erdogan's Empire: Turkey and the Politics of the Middle East

Gradually since 2003, Turkey's autocratic leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has sought to make Turkey a great power -- in the tradition of past Turkish leaders from the late Ottoman sultans to Ataturk, the founder of modern Turkey. Here the leading authority Soner Cagaptay, author of The New Sultan -- the

Soner Cagaptay

The Race for Istanbul: Erdogan’s Plan A and B

Although massive state resources have been mobilized against Imamoglu, the opposition candidate has taken up the mantle of the underdog who could challenge the status quo nationally, just as Erdogan himself did two decades ago.

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan’s Failure on the Nile

How Turkey’s president went from being a regional Islamist leader in the Arab Spring to sharing Qatar’s role as the Middle East’s odd man out.

Soner Cagaptay

If Syria Safe-Zone Talks Fail: How the SDF Might Respond to Turkish Intervention

The Kurdish-led force cannot hold the northeast on its own, and withdrawing coalition support would bolster Assad and Moscow’s interests.

John Holland-McCowan

Maps & Graphics

No More Turkish Veto on Idlib Offensive?

Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.

Fabrice Balanche

Iraq-Turkey Pipeline Arbitration: Avoiding a Policy Train Wreck

Baghdad is suing Ankara for giving the Kurds independent pipeline access, but the biggest loser may be Washington’s pressure campaign on Iran.

Michael Knights

Why Erdogan Will Win in Istanbul, and What This Means for Turkish Democracy

Despite the opposition’s resilience, the president can use any number of legal, political, or foreign policy tools to ensure his candidate wins this time around, no matter the reputational costs.

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

The Turkish Rupture Could Cause a Fissure in NATO

A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan Should Seize the Chance for Change in Turkey

The president seems pragmatic enough to recognize when he is beat and refocus his efforts on normalizing the severely polarized political system.

Soner Cagaptay

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Assessing the Post–July 15 Turkish Military: Operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch

After Turkey’s July 2016 failed military uprising, the leadership initiated purges and reforms aimed at ensuring the military’s future loyalty, but raising questions about the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the newly configured Turkish Armed Forces. Two subsequent cross-border operations into northern Syria provide valuable insight: Operation Euphrates Shield, lasting

Metin Gurcan

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