Turkey

The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.

Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer.

Turkey's refusal to approve Sweden's NATO membership is yet another foreign policy tool being used by Erdoğan ahead of 2023 elections.

There are ways for the new prime minister to reinforce Iraq’s independence after a series of foreign attacks, but they will be complex and painful.

Although Ankara will likely approve the Nordic expansion down the road, hurdles remain for Sweden, and Russia may play the spoiler’s role unless Washington facilitates the process.

Russia will continue using the Black Sea corridors as leverage, so Western countries and their partners should prepare alternative routes and other assistance as counter-leverage.

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

As happened with past incursions, Erdogan’s latest invasion threats and preparatory strikes are fatally distracting the SDF from its crucial counterterrorism mission—and at a time when jihadist activities against it are on the rise.

Despite supporting Ukraine militarily, President Erdogan has crucial political and economic reasons for preserving good ties with Moscow, so he is unlikely to take any actions in the Black Sea that are not strictly laid out in the Montreux Convention.