Turkey

Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.

Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.

Russian and Chinese vetoes have once again exposed the vulnerability of the UN system for handling the country’s humanitarian crisis, so Western donors should explore innovative alternatives for channeling assistance.

The mixed Kurdish-Arab zone could buckle under any number of security, health, and economic threats, especially if the United States surrenders to Russian and Turkish interests by withdrawing its remaining forces.

Directly engaging all parties is essential if Washington hopes to advance a national dialogue and prevent a Turkish-Russian accommodation that establishes their presence in Libya indefinitely.

Reduced demand caused by the coronavirus and low oil/gas prices has complicated plans for further development of the region’s offshore reserves.

A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.

Although the process demonstrates the success of Moscow’s agile military and diplomatic strategy in Syria, it also highlights the Kremlin’s inability (or unwillingness) to resolve the interminable crisis.

Despite Erdogan’s pandemic missteps and repressively conservative agenda, Turkey’s problem-solving opposition parties and the secularist youths who support them give hope that democracy will endure.