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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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How Will Hezbollah Respond to Israel’s Drone Attack?

With the IDF seemingly expanding its missile hunt to Lebanon and Iraq, the actions of Iran’s proxies, their host governments, and U.S. officials will do much to determine if wider escalation is in the cards.

Hanin Ghaddar

Hezbollah’s Lebanese Allies Can Be Contained

The group’s local partners complied when U.S. officials warned them to back off a recent political smear campaign, but more should be done to expose and exploit their rifts.

Hanin Ghaddar

U.S. Safe Zone Deal Can Help Turkey Come to Terms with the PKK and YPG

Checking the YPG’s ascendance in Syria could bring the PKK back to the negotiating table, ultimately making Turkey more amenable to Kurdish enclaves across the border.

Soner Cagaptay

Growing Anti-Syrian Sentiment in Turkey

Refugees are being blamed for the country’s economic and social troubles, resulting in online hate speech, vigilante violence, and further pressure on the government to change the status quo in north Syria.

Soner Cagaptay

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Iran Across the Border: Israel's Pushback in Syria

Of all the threats in Israel’s strategic landscape, none have loomed larger in recent years than Iran’s ambitions and developing military capabilities in neighboring Syria and Lebanon. Exploiting regional turmoil as well as the 2015 nuclear agreement, the IRGC’s elite Qods Force has embarked on an ambitious plan to build

Michael Herzog

Articles & Testimony

Why the U.S. Ejected Turkey from F-35 Fighter Jet Program, and Why the Turbulence Will Only Grow

The future of the bilateral relationship looks bleak after years of strategic divergence on crises in Iraq and Syria.

Soner Cagaptay

The Erbil Shooting: Implications for U.S.-Turkish Policy

If the PKK is confirmed as the perpetrator, Ankara will almost surely launch retaliation in Iraq or Syria, and Washington will have little choice but to stand aside.

Soner Cagaptay

Thirteen Years Since the Hezbollah-Israel War

On the anniversary of the 2006 conflict, a former IDF chief of staff assesses current power dynamics, risks, and opportunities along Israel’s northern borders.

Gadi Eisenkot

Maps & Graphics

A Humanitarian Time Bomb in Idlib

As the latest regime offensive continues, hundreds of thousands of civilians are fleeing to overcrowded border camps, furthering Assad’s strategy of emptying as much of the Sunni Arab population as possible.

Fabrice Balanche

Assad's Thinking: How Did Syria Get Here, and Where Does the Regime Want to Go Now?

Former American and French ambassadors discuss the regime's calculus and preview the upcoming U.S.-Russia summit in Jerusalem. Watch video or read a summary.

Michel Duclos
Robert Ford

China’s Middle East Policy: Speak Softly and Wave a Large Purse

An Israeli analyst shares observations from an intensive round of discussions with senior Chinese military, diplomatic, and academic officials.

Ehud Yaari

What to Expect from the U.S.-Russia Meeting in Jerusalem

Ultimately, no deal is better than a bad deal, and Moscow’s track record in Syria suggests it is both unable and unwilling to keep Iran out.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Are Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah Trying to Reprise Syria in Venezuela?

U.S. rivals are diversifying their support for the Maduro government in familiar fashion, whether to parry the United States, exploit the crisis for profit, or both.

Jay Solomon

Maps & Graphics

The Shia Militia Mapping Project

Explore a comprehensive interactive map of Shia militias across the Middle East, charting their location, movements, ties to Iran, and involvements in conflicts in Iraq and Syria.

Phillip Smyth

If Syria Safe-Zone Talks Fail: How the SDF Might Respond to Turkish Intervention

The Kurdish-led force cannot hold the northeast on its own, and withdrawing coalition support would bolster Assad and Moscow’s interests.

John Holland-McCowan

Maps & Graphics

No More Turkish Veto on Idlib Offensive?

Ankara’s calculations about the rebel province appear to have shifted, though it still hopes to use the situation as leverage for constraining the YPG and preventing another refugee influx.

Fabrice Balanche

Articles & Testimony

Moscow in the Middle East and North Africa

To counter Russia’s long game, Washington must show its willingness to compete by maintaining a credible regional presence, crafting a clearer message about its intentions, and moving beyond sanctions.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

Don't Pull Back from the Middle East

Safeguarding America’s widely agreed interests in the Middle East requires a substantial presence, as does the region’s tendency to export insecurity.

Robert Satloff

Hezbollah-Iran Dynamics: A Proxy, Not a Partner

As U.S. pressure on Tehran heats up, many in Beirut, Washington, and Europe will argue that the group is still an independent actor, but past and recent evidence shows otherwise.

Hanin Ghaddar

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Assessing the Post–July 15 Turkish Military: Operations Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch

After Turkey’s July 2016 failed military uprising, the leadership initiated purges and reforms aimed at ensuring the military’s future loyalty, but raising questions about the operational efficiency and effectiveness of the newly configured Turkish Armed Forces. Two subsequent cross-border operations into northern Syria provide valuable insight: Operation Euphrates Shield, lasting

Metin Gurcan

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