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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Articles & Testimony
Why Instability in Belarus, Khabarovsk, and Lebanon Creates Problems Putin Doesn’t Want
Current events in Lebanon may seem remote compared to protests closer to Russia, but the situation in Beirut directly affects Moscow’s policy in Syria and its evolving status as a regional player.
Aug 27, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Russia Aims to Preserve the Status Quo in Lebanon
Although state officials and media have expressed somewhat nuanced views on the Beirut disaster and subsequent protests, most of their comments boil down to preventing deeper U.S. involvement and safeguarding Moscow’s interests in the current power structure.
Aug 12, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Moscow and Ankara Will Continue Uneasy Cooperation
Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.
Aug 6, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Kurdish Role in Russia’s Middle East Power Play
As Moscow continues to intervene in regional conflicts, politics, and energy affairs, Washington should not underestimate its deep-rooted relationships with Kurdish groups in various countries.
Jul 29, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities
Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.
Jul 17, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Another Painful Compromise on Humanitarian Assistance in Syria
Russian and Chinese vetoes have once again exposed the vulnerability of the UN system for handling the country’s humanitarian crisis, so Western donors should explore innovative alternatives for channeling assistance.
Jul 14, 2020
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  • Charles Thépaut
Articles & Testimony
The Role of the Military in Russian Politics and Foreign Policy Over the Past 20 Years
The Kremlin’s interventions in Syria and elsewhere are just one part of its society-wide efforts to bolster Putin’s domestic standing via the security sphere.
Jul 2, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Fragile Status Quo in Northeast Syria
The mixed Kurdish-Arab zone could buckle under any number of security, health, and economic threats, especially if the United States surrenders to Russian and Turkish interests by withdrawing its remaining forces.
Jul 1, 2020
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Brief Analysis
Merging Talks on Northeast Syria with a Whole-of-Country Approach
Deeper Turkish engagement with the Syrian Kurds would be helpful, but any such talks need to be linked with ongoing efforts to contain the Islamic State and advance the UN’s broader Geneva process.
Jun 25, 2020
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  • Jomana Qaddour
  • Cansu Camlibel
Video
Brief Analysis
Is Regime Collapse on Syria's Horizon? Evaluating Assad's Grip on Power
A State Department official explains the latest sanctions against entities that do business with Assad, while two experts assess the regime’s current status and its susceptibility to foreign pressure.
Jun 22, 2020
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  • Joel Rayburn
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Sam Dagher
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Military Activity in the East Mediterranean Echoes Its Approach to Syria
Although Moscow would face many challenges if it tries to establish permanent offensive and A2AD capabilities in Libya like it has in Syria, its covert actions thus far show a commitment to playing the long game against NATO in the East Mediterranean.
Jun 17, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 1): Increasing the Assad Regime’s Isolation
New Syria sanctions signal bipartisan support for continued diplomatic isolation and economic coercion, but their impact ultimately depends on whether the executive branch is willing to prioritize the issue.
Jun 11, 2020
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  • Dana Stroul
  • Katherine Bauer
Video
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State's Resurgence in the COVID Era? From Defeat to Renewal in Iraq and Syria
Two experts assess the recent attack patterns and future prospects of a group that once seemed on the cusp of defeat in both countries.
May 29, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Syrian Constitutional Committee Is Not About the Constitution
The UN committee’s chances of success are limited but still worth pursuing to a prompt conclusion, in part to prevent Russia from draping its window dressing over an illegitimate process.
May 27, 2020
◆
  • Charles Thépaut
Video
Brief Analysis
Can the UN Still Save Syria? Views from a Former Special Envoy
Is it too late for the UN to counter the Assad regime and its allies on their abuses or to salvage cross-border mechanisms for humanitarian aid? Former UN special envoy Staffan de Mistura joined a virtual Policy Forum to probe the prospects.
May 25, 2020
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  • Staffan de Mistura
Brief Analysis
Don’t Overthink the Assad-Makhlouf Feud
The Syrian leader’s dramatic war of words with his massively wealthy cousin may seem like a major fracture inside the regime, but the dynamics of past and present family disputes paint a different picture.
May 22, 2020
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  • Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Growing Tensions in South Syria Signal More Regime Attacks
Given the Syrian army’s recent deployments in Deraa and Russia’s half-hearted attempts to halt them, the situation may soon lead to renewed shelling of civilian areas and myriad complications for Israel and Jordan.
May 18, 2020
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  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
The Jihadi-Backed Salvation Government and Covid-19 in Northwest Syria
Disease prevention efforts in Idlib illustrate the movement's political evolution and its differences from the Islamic State, but the pandemic may still hit the area hard given inconsistent implementation and years of regime destruction.
May 15, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin

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