Proliferation

Three experts examine Tehran's objectives, Russia's regional goals, and the way these translate to long-term threats and short-term risks for Israel.

The world oil market will be the most sensitive indicator of how increased sanctions affect Iran.

Washington can use sanctions as leverage to demand more vigilance from JCPOA signatories even as it allows certain useful procurements.

The United States needs to keep Europe on board, go beyond sanctions, and ensure lasting bipartisan support for its new policy.

Even if exposing missile sites does not convince the group to dismantle them, it would at least counter the narrative that ‘resistance’ is good for the Lebanese people and economy.

If the West could go back in time and prevent Hezbollah from becoming a powerhouse, they would do so in a heartbeat, so they should not miss a similar opportunity with the Houthis.

Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.

As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation?

Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.