Proliferation

Washington can use sanctions as leverage to demand more vigilance from JCPOA signatories even as it allows certain useful procurements.

The United States needs to keep Europe on board, go beyond sanctions, and ensure lasting bipartisan support for its new policy.

Even if exposing missile sites does not convince the group to dismantle them, it would at least counter the narrative that ‘resistance’ is good for the Lebanese people and economy.

If the West could go back in time and prevent Hezbollah from becoming a powerhouse, they would do so in a heartbeat, so they should not miss a similar opportunity with the Houthis.

Renewed naval exercises, missile tests, and other developments point to a broadening threat, but their muted nature indicates that Tehran is trying to avoid popular backlash at home.

As the regime’s strategy for countering the Trump administration continues to falter, will its traditional two-step of provocation and restraint give way to wider escalation?

Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.

Pyongyang has long threatened U.S. regional allies and interests with military support for terrorists, militias, and hostile regimes. Can a potential bilateral deal sever these supply lines?

Khamenei’s Ramadan speech combined explicit attacks on the United States, implicit criticism of Rouhani’s approach, and excessive demands on Europe, seemingly bracing the regime for one of the toughest challenges of his thirty-year rule.