Proliferation

If Tehran agrees to extend the JCPOA’s sunset provisions and curtail its activity in Syria and Lebanon, Washington may be willing to lift the nuclear sanctions and create a special-purpose vehicle.

The regime’s economic pain is real, so it may eventually be willing to talk about extending the nuclear deal’s sunset provisions and limiting its military infrastructure in Syria.

Iran says it won’t negotiate with Washington under pressure, but it has done so in the past and might again.

Tehran has reportedly told its militia proxies to be ready for escalation, so Washington must prepare to maintain a full presence in Iraq even under potentially increased fire.

If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil.

Neither blanket extension nor wholesale cancellation is the best course, but several of the expiring waivers would serve U.S. interests if properly—and publicly—revised.

A dramatic rift seems unavoidable unless Ankara delays the arrival of Russian missiles and Washington provides security guarantees against Moscow and the Syrian Kurds.

The administration's message is not a new one, the FTO listing does not add much additional pressure, and the resultant risks to U.S. interests are significant.

Those who favor helping the Saudis develop their nuclear industry are running up against skeptics who fear Riyadh cannot be trusted with such capabilities.