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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?
Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.
Jan 22, 2021
◆
  • Ilari Papa
Articles & Testimony
Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions
Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.
Jan 19, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?
The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.
Jan 15, 2021
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Christine McVann
Brief Analysis
Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging
Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.
Jan 14, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance
Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.
Jan 8, 2021
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Iran warhead on Iran map
In-Depth Reports
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks:
Openings and Obstacles
A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.
Jan 5, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
◆ Transition 2021
Video
Brief Analysis
Presidential Transition Event:
Thinking About the Next Phase of Iran Nuclear Diplomacy
Three veteran policy practitioners examine the challenges that the Biden administration will face as it considers whether and how to reenter the Iran nuclear agreement.
January 6, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • Suzanne Maloney
  • Meghan O'Sullivan
How Biden’s Iran Policy Can Have a Chance to Succeed
No sanctions relief should be granted without nuclear concessions, and a “less for less” deal may be the best way of reaching a viable compromise in the near term.
Dec 26, 2020
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks
In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.
Dec 18, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
To Secure an Iran Nuclear Deal, Include the Mideast’s Powers
For two decades and running, diplomatic efforts have noticeably omitted the regional states most directly in the line of Tehran’s fire, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
Dec 15, 2020
◆
  • Jay Solomon
Brief Analysis
Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price
Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.
Dec 3, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?
The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.
Dec 3, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Speech Sets the Boundaries of Engagement with the West
In his first major address since Joe Biden’s election, the Supreme Leader downplayed the prospect of negotiating an end to U.S. sanctions, instead urging Iranian officials to focus on increasing the country’s self-reliance and solving its deep economic problems.
Nov 30, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Articles & Testimony
Who Killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's Nuclear Chief? Israel Is the Likely Suspect
The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.
Nov 27, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Latest Iran Nuclear Inspection Report Reveals Multiple Concerns
Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.
Nov 16, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Secrets Explode—and Are Covered Up—Again
Hezbollah leaders are still trying to conceal their strategy of hiding military assets in civilian areas, but each self-explosion and Israeli exposure reveals more about the group's political plight, its persistent quest for precision missiles, and its skill with information operations.
Oct 8, 2020
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension
New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.
Oct 6, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Peace for Warplanes?
How domestic and foreign disputes over the potential sale of F-35 jets to the UAE could complicate the country's normalization deal with Israel.
Aug 31, 2020
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
Iran Flaunts New Missile and Jet Engine Technology
Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.
Aug 28, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Saudi-Pakistan Rift Develops Over India
Growing tensions between the two allies have both Islamic and nuclear angles.
Aug 21, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson

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