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Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.

Reading Through Iran’s Nuclear Demands

Tehran has maintained its stringent line of insisting that Washington lift all sanctions, verify their removal, and provide future guarantees before it will lift a finger on resuming compliance with the JCPOA.

Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Biden Needs a Plan B for Yemen If Houthis Win

Ending the war under the current circumstances will generate new problems unless further steps are taken to interdict weapons smuggling and bolster security in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.

David Schenker

USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber

Articles & Testimony

The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran

Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously, so the Biden administration needs to put the prospect of military escalation back on the table if it hopes to make progress on the nuclear issue.

Dennis Ross

U.S. and Iranian flags

Articles & Testimony

A Plan B for Iran

Tehran has seemingly concluded that sanctions relief is no longer worth compromising for, so Washington needs to change that calculus by credibly sharpening the consequences.

Michael Singh

Anti air

Maps & Graphics

Iraqi Militias Show Off Iranian Anti-Air Missile

Iran-backed resistance groups are seemingly staging missile "discoveries" as a way of warning off coalition air forces.

Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

While Washington Argues, Iran Makes Nuclear Advances

A closer look at the technical progress being made under the country’s new nuclear chief—and his potential links with the Pakistani scientist who first gave Tehran weaponization know-how.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

What AQ Khan’s Diaries Tell About Pakistan’s Drive for a Nuclear Bomb

The custodian of the infamous scientist’s four-decade-long journal offers new insights into his proliferation role and relationship with Pakistani military authorities.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal

If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.

Robert Satloff

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

What If It’s Not a Tactic? Khamenei’s Waning Faith in the JCPOA

The Supreme Leader’s rhetoric in recent months indicates that Iran's experience under the nuclear deal has made him gun-shy about returning to that framework.

Omer Carmi

U.S. and Iranian flags

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Gift to President Biden

Although Tehran’s specific JCPOA demand may not be feasible, it opens the door to negotiating a new nuclear deal.

Michael Singh

Articles & Testimony

To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb

In addition to renegotiating key parts of the JCPOA, expanding Israel’s arsenal is the best way to keep Tehran off the nuclear weapons threshold.

Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Biden Wants to Leave the Middle East, But He’s in a Vicious Bombing Cycle in Iraq

Caught between aggressive Tehran-backed militias and a skeptical Congress, the administration needs a better approach.

Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is.

Tehran’s provision of training and weapons to regional militants never stopped even under heavy U.S. sanctions, so the Biden administration needs to do much more than just reinstate the JCPOA.

James Jeffrey
Dennis Ross

Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".

Maps & Graphics

Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers

Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.

Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?

Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.

Simon Henderson

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president

From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran’s Election

With Ebrahim Raisi’s road to the presidency seemingly paved, the regime has been working to prevent low voter turnout and give him a vote of confidence through a landslide win.

Omer Carmi

Sword of Jerusalem vs. Guardian of the Walls: Gaza and the Next Lebanon War

The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”

Assaf Orion

Iran's navy commander speaks in front of a map

Iran’s Atlantic Voyage: Implications of Naval Deployments to Venezuela or Syria

The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.

Farzin Nadimi

Qais in military attire

Maps & Graphics

Qais al-Khazali Doubles Down on His Muqawama Membership

The militia leader has not hesitated to provide court-quality evidence that he and his movement Asaib Ahl al-Haq are actively involved in attacks on U.S. forces.

Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage

News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.

Simon Henderson

Pagination

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