April 13, 2010
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The Scud threatening diplomat's nomination
A routine Senate Foreign Relations Committee business meeting this afternoon could become an event of high intrigue. It’s scheduled to consider whether to vote out the nomination of diplomat Robert S. Ford to be the U.S. Ambassador to Syria.
Ford is a highly regarded diplomat most recently serving as the deputy chief of mission at the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. But his nomination has gotten wrapped up in a partisan/ideological debate over the merits of engagement and whether Syria’s behavior warrants returning a U.S. ambassador to Damascus, where the U.S. has not had an ambassador since 2005.
Reports out this week are likely to further complicate the matter.
Reports published this month in a Kuwaiti newspaper, echoed today by the Israeli press, suggest that the Israelis got intelligence that Syria was planning to or transferred Scud-D missiles to Lebanese-based Hezbollah, but were dissuaded by the U.S. from striking.
The Syrians suggest the reports were false and planted by American foes of stepped up U.S. engagement with Syria. The American skeptics of stepped up engagement with Damascus say that is not the case.
What is clear is that earlier this month, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an advocate of engagement with Damascus, traveled to Syria for meetings with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, as well as to Lebanon.
Aides won't reveal what was discussed in the meeting between Kerry and Assad, with one saying it is classified, with the implication being Kerry was sent to confront Assad with some intelligence or evidence.
Kerry also stopped off in Rome for meetings with unidentified government officials on his way home from Damascus, according to his itinerary. Italy heads up a UN mission monitoring the situation in southern Lebanon since the 2006 Israeli-Lebanese war.
A former senior U.S. official involved in the region says the crucial "question is whether the shipment was actually made."
“It is possible Syria was planning to ship Scuds but after warnings from the U.S. and Israel backed off,” the former senior U.S. official said. “Scuds are clearly a red-line for Israel. And if Syria were to do something that foolish, Bibi [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] could not afford to sit back and just let it happen.”
The head of Israeli Army Intelligence Research hinted last year that Syria may be transferring another Russian-made anti-aircraft system, the Igla, to Hezbollah, says the Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s David Schenker, but the allegations were not confirmed.
Then, the Kuwaiti paper Al-Rai Al-Aam suggested a few weeks back "that the Israelis saw these Scud-D missiles at the [Syrian-Lebanon] border, and they were about to bomb them,” and the Americans held the Israelis back from doing so, Schenker said.
“Both are game changers,” Schenker said, referring to Israel’s view of Hezbollah’s possible acquisition of the Igla or Scud-D.
Are the reports that Syria transferred the Scud surface to surface missiles, or parts of the missile systems, true?
The Israeli press reports today draw heavily from Kuwaiti press reports, one of which cites allegations originally published in a Wall Street Journal oped by Israeli intelligence reporter Ronen Bergman. "So this is a cyclical story," the former senior U.S. official said.
Syria expert Andrew Tabler says he believes the reports are true, and troubling for those advocating engagement.
"We have gone there scores of times in the last year, and Assad seems to be escalating in order to put pressure on Washington to pressure Israel to come to the table," Tabler, also a fellow at the Washington Institute, said. "And it's not going to work with this government in Israel. And I think the U.S. and Israel were coordinating on this because both had an interest in trying to come up with a diplomatic solution."
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak used the Israeli reports Tuesday to re-iterate Israel’s red lines.
"Bringing in systems that upset the balance [of power] endanger our stability and peace,” he was cited by the Jerusalem Post, adding that “we have no aggressive intentions towards Lebanon.”
Meantime, should Ford’s nomination be voted out of the Foreign Relations committee today, he’s likely to have a wait before getting to Damascus.
As POLITICO previously reported, a group of Republican Senators led by Sen. Jon Kyl (R-Ariz.) has requested to the Administration that a report required under the Iran, North Korea and Syria Nonproliferation Act of 2006 (INKSA) be submitted to Congress before going ahead with Senate confirmation.
“So while there is no hold yet, there may well be soon,” the former senior official said.
That would be a mistake, says former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt and Israel Daniel Kurtzer.
"This is a misguided debate," Kurtzer told POLITICO Tuesday. "Having an ambassador in Syria is a U.S. interest as it allows us to deliver our messages clearly and to understand better the Syrian situation."
UPDATE: Ford was successfully voted out of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee Tuesday afternoon for consideration by the full Senate, a committee aide says.
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