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North Africa

Policy Analysis on North Africa

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Brief Analysis
Corona in the Casbah: The Pandemic’s Destabilizing Impact on Algeria
Given that the local economic repercussions of COVID-19 could be severe, Washington should prepare for the prospect of instability erupting in Africa’s largest country.
Apr 22, 2020
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  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Coronavirus Has Opposite Effects on Turkish Policy in Syria and Libya
Ceasefire agreements and contagion concerns will likely limit Turkish operations in Syria for the time being, but Ankara has no such constraints in its Libya proxy war.
Apr 17, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
As Civil War Rages, Diplomacy Fails with Libya’s Haftar
For years, international mediators have insisted that there is no military solution to the war, but it is also time to recognize that there is no diplomatic solution with Khalifa Haftar.
Apr 9, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
How Ansar al-Sharia in Tunisia’s Message Framing Primed Its Members to Become Recruits for the Islamic State
By the time IS came to the fore in Iraq and Syria, many of its themes and activities were already second nature to Tunisian jihadis who had heard similar messaging at home.
Mar 19, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Ultra Extremism Among Tunisian Jihadis Within the Islamic State
A deeper look into how one of the organization's Tunisian factions in Syria adopted and practiced an even more radical distortion of Islamic thought than its parent group.
Feb 18, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
Tunisia's Missionaries of Jihad
How did a democratic bright spot in the Arab Spring become a leading source of Islamic State fighters? Read or watch an in-depth conversation with two jihadism experts.
Feb 14, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Rukmini Callimachi
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan’s ‘Mini Empire’ in Libya and Syria
A deep dive into the evolution of Turkey’s Middle East policy and the mixed results it has had in two Russian-fueled conflict zones.
Feb 12, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Your Sons Are at Your Service: Tunisia’s Missionaries of Jihad
How did Tunisia, a democratic bright spot of the Arab uprisings with very little history of terrorist violence within its borders before 2011, become one of the largest sources of foreign fighters for the Islamic State? This groundbreaking book presents the first history of the Tunisian jihadi movement and challenges simplified views of jihadism's appeal and success.
Feb 7, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Video
Brief Analysis
The Persistent Threat from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda: The View from the UN
The head of the UN team charged with monitoring each group assesses their prospects for bouncing back and recommends further steps that governments can take to counter them.
Feb 6, 2020
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  • Edmund Fitton-Brown
Brief Analysis
Tunisia Turns a Corner Against the Jihadist Movement
Fewer attacks and more prosecutions suggest the country’s integrated approach could eventually become a model for the region.
Jan 27, 2020
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.
Jan 24, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.
Jan 17, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Brief Analysis
Turkey Pivots to Tripoli: Implications for Libya’s Civil War and U.S. Policy
Facing pressure from General Haftar and his foreign military backers, the Tripoli government has welcomed the helping hand extended by Ankara, whose own lack of regional options has drawn it into the middle of another conflict.
Dec 19, 2019
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  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
In a bid to ensure plausible deniability, address internal rivalries, and advance its competition with the West, the Kremlin has increased its use of such contractors in the Middle East and elsewhere.
Dec 19, 2019
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Doubles Region’s Troubles—First in Syria, and Now in Libya
New maritime and military agreements may pull Ankara into Libya’s civil war, adding yet another foreign actor to an already tortuous multilateral showdown.
Dec 16, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Algeria’s Election Is a Make-or-Break Moment
The vote’s outcome will not have much legitimacy in the eyes of the people, so Washington should focus on urging all parties to lay the groundwork for longer-term reforms aimed at breaking the political deadlock.
Dec 10, 2019
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  • Sarah Feuer
Articles & Testimony
What Will It Take to Repair Middle Eastern Economies?
Directly investing in nongovernmental enterprise and giving international approval to private competition can change the dynamic in individual countries, promote liberal economies, and give citizens greater agency.
Dec 8, 2019
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  • Bilal Wahab
Brief Analysis
The Islamic State in Libya Has Yet to Recover
Given the group’s operational silence and loss of foreign help, it may not be able to launch the type of insurgency seen in Syria, but that could change if U.S. attention wanes militarily or diplomatically.
Dec 6, 2019
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Must Blunt Russia’s Adventurism in Libya
The deployment of Kremlin-linked mercenaries will make a costly civil war even more difficult to end.
Nov 25, 2019
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  • Ben Fishman

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