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North Africa

Policy Analysis on North Africa

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A supporter of Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda Party protests against the Tunisian president's 2022 coup - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Promoting Stability and Reform in Tunisia
A frozen democratic transition and widening economic uncertainty mark the ongoing national crisis, so Washington will need to make careful use of sticks and carrots in supporting open governance.
May 3, 2022
◆
  • Sabina Henneberg
Brief Analysis
French-Turkish Relations: Foes to Friends?
The Ukraine war has greatly boosted their diplomatic and military cooperation, but lingering friction over Syria, Libya, and Mediterranean issues will need to be handled carefully if this rapprochement is to endure.
Apr 20, 2022
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  • Louis Dugit-Gros
  • Pierre Morcos
  • Soner Cagaptay
Israeli and Arab foreign ministers, along with U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, at the Negev Summit - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A New Regional Role for Israel, as Washington Shows Signs of Stepping Back
By participating in the Negev Summit, Arab states are signaling their appreciation for Israel’s status as both a local power and a unique interlocutor with the United States.
Mar 28, 2022
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  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Ukraine Invasion Ushers in Algeria’s Return
Although the wave of Western overtures is understandable, Algeria is unlikely to make up for Europe’s energy supply gaps or take other actions that give the appearance of choosing sides.
Mar 28, 2022
◆
  • Geoff Porter
NATO member flags fly at half-staff in solidarity with victims of the November 2015 Paris terror attacks - source: NATO
Video
Brief Analysis
NATO Counterterrorism Trends: Current and Future Threats
The alliance’s CT chief reflects on what member states, their militaries, and their international partners should focus on as they adapt to constantly evolving terrorist threats at home and abroad.
Mar 17, 2022
◆
  • Gabriele Cascone
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
Can Turkey and the UAE Help Break Libya’s Deadlock?
Finding a compromise timeline for elections will be delicate, but the recent thaw in relations between Ankara and Abu Dhabi removes a significant external impediment to progress.
Mar 14, 2022
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  • Ben Fishman
Tunisian citizens who fled the Russian invasion of Ukraine arrive in Tunis - Source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Middle East Students Stranded in Ukraine
Regional governments are scrambling to repatriate thousands of their trapped citizens, and the United States could play a key role in facilitating their safe return.
Mar 9, 2022
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  • Carol Silber
  • Calvin Wilder
Brief Analysis
Mali and MENA: The Future of Counterterrorism in the Sahel and Maghreb
As the Ukraine war creates a critical juncture for European security, France and its partners are pulling military resources out of Mali, raising questions about how best to address persistent terrorist threats and growing Russian footprints in the surrounding regions.
Mar 7, 2022
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  • Louis Dugit-Gros
Arab Spring Tunisia Yemen Bahrain Egypt Libya Syria
Audio
In-Depth Reports
No Going Back
Activists Reflect a Decade After the Arab Spring
Interviews with thirteen activists reveal a deep sense of disappointment but also a shared conviction that a new reform movement will eventually rise and deliver lasting change to the region.
Mar 7, 2022
◆
  • Roy Gutman
◆ Reform, Protest, Change
A Ukrainian flag flies at a naval base in Crimea in 2014 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis
So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.
Updated Mar 4, 2022
◆
  • Margaret Dene
  • Hannah Labow
  • Carol Silber
A supporter of Tunisia's Islamist Ennahda Party protests against the Tunisian president's 2022 coup - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Tunisian Jihadism in the Shadow of a Coup
If the West delays on pressing Saied to resume the democratic transition, it risks undermining the progress made so far in establishing a professional, apolitical counterterrorism infrastructure.
Mar 3, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The UN Resolution on Ukraine: How Did the Middle East Vote?
A comprehensive record of what regional officials said—or didn’t say—about the emergency wartime vote in the General Assembly.
Mar 2, 2022
Libyans protest against their parliament's decision to appoint a new prime minister in Tripoli - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Libya’s Renewed Legitimacy Crisis
Washington and Europe need to clearly signal that they will not endorse any new governing arrangements until all local actors peacefully adhere to a negotiated political roadmap.
Feb 14, 2022
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  • Ben Fishman
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
“The Holocaust Was an Arab Story Too”: Holocaust Remembrance in the Arab World
المحرقة كانت قصة عربية أيضاً: إحياء ذكرى "الهولوكوست" في العالم العربي
The Washington Institute’s executive director reflects on this year’s wave of remembrance events in the region, including his remarks at two landmark programs in Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
Jan 28, 2022
◆
  • Robert Satloff
US Army soldiers on patrol in Iraq
Video
Brief Analysis
The War on Jihadism: Lessons from Twenty Years of Counterterrorism
Three French experts survey the evolution of twenty-first-century counterterrorism and assess how the struggles against jihadist and far-right violence need to adapt in the coming years.
Dec 22, 2021
◆
  • Marc Hecker
  • Elie Tenenbaum
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Islamic State fighters in Iraq
In-Depth Reports
Soldiers of End-Times
Assessing the Military Effectiveness of the Islamic State
The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands.
Dec 21, 2021
◆
  • Ido Levy
An Egyptian guard inspects bomb damage near the Gaza border in Sinai
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Counterinsurgency Success in Sinai
The military’s shift to tribal engagement has helped reduce jihadist attacks, but Cairo’s lagging efforts on development and human rights could leave the peninsula open to a future resurgence.
Dec 9, 2021
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  • Ido Levy
President Biden and Secretary of State Blinken host the Summit for Democracy. Source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Summit for Democracy Skips the Arab World
To address the region’s democracy gap, Washington needs to develop consistent messaging on reform objectives and help its partners focus on achievable goals such as protecting free speech, dissidents, and civil society.
Dec 8, 2021
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Video
Brief Analysis
Popular Protest, Democratic Prospects, and U.S. Policy Dilemmas in the Middle East
Three experts discuss how Washington should shape its regional response to persistent protest movements, economic struggles, and democratic backsliding.
Dec 2, 2021
◆
  • Chiraz Arbi
  • Yasir Zaidan
  • Alberto Fernandez
Rebel soldiers in Libya during the 2011 revolution. Source: AP
Articles & Testimony
December Elections in Libya Risk a Return to Civil War
Authorities have come too far to risk resuming violence or dividing the country with a rushed, heavily boycotted vote.
Nov 21, 2021
◆
  • Ben Fishman

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