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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Al-Nujaba Satellite Television
A U.S.-sanctioned "resistance" channel owned and operated by U.S.-designated terrorist movement Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba.
Jul 22, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Jazira drones
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Drones of Kataib Hezbollah's Jazira Command
KH-commanded militia units appear to have exclusive control over Iranian-provided drones, highlighting the group's links to Tehran and its involvement in recent UAV operations.
Jul 20, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran Sets Its Eyes on Afghanistan
As it deploys more military forces along the border, Tehran is no doubt mulling various options for securing its interests next door, whether by waging proxy warfare, intervening directly, working with the Taliban, or trying to preserve the status quo.
Jul 19, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition
The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.
Jul 13, 2021
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • Kathryn Wheelbarger
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Muqawama Signaling De-Escalation?
Although attacks on U.S. sites have surged, Iraqi militias appear to be laying the groundwork for de-escalation.
Jul 9, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Turkish National Security Council
In-Depth Reports
Deals, Drones, and National Will:
The New Era in Turkish Power Projection
Turkey has recently pushed the PKK fight from its own turf and blunted challenges in northern Syria, Azerbaijan, Libya, and the Gulf, all while strengthening its defense export sector.
Jul 9, 2021
◆
  • Rich Outzen
Liwa Thar al-Muhandis
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Liwa Thar Muhandis
This older facade brand has been brought out of retirement during the summer surge of Iraqi militia attacks on U.S. targets.
Jul 8, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Rouhani, Putin, Erdogan
In-Depth Reports
Triangular Diplomacy:
Unpacking Russia's Syria Strategy
Moscow has repeatedly played actors off each other to secure its own interests and keep the Assad regime in power.
Jul 7, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Threat to air
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Assessing Militia Threats to Coalition Aircraft
Such threats are almost certainly information operations intended to demonstrate resolve and restrict coalition freedom of movement, not precursors to real attacks that could draw heavy U.S. retaliation.
Jul 6, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Toofan
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 2): Ground Combat Systems
Tehran has bolstered the ground combat capabilities of its proxy militias within the PMF, though the equipment rarely sees combat employment.
Jul 3, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Mohajer drone
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems
Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.
Jul 3, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Biden Wants to Leave the Middle East, But He’s in a Vicious Bombing Cycle in Iraq
Caught between aggressive Tehran-backed militias and a skeptical Congress, the administration needs a better approach.
Jul 2, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Deterring Militias in Iraq: What Works and What Doesn’t
Striking back one time in twelve will not stop Iranian proxy attacks, so Washington must consider more consistent and painful retaliation in order to protect Americans in the Middle East.
Jun 28, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers
Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.
Jun 27, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?
Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.
Jun 25, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Accidental Allies cover
In-Depth Reports
Accidental Allies:
The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State
To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group.
Jun 22, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Wladimir van Wilgenburg
Brief Analysis
Making Libya’s Berlin Process Work
To break the political deadlock, begin the withdrawal of disruptive foreign forces, and deploy ceasefire monitors, U.S. officials will need to hold some hard conversations with the UN envoy and all of the international and local actors on the ground.
Jun 21, 2021
◆
  • Ben Fishman
  • Anas El Gomati
PMF
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Iraqi Muqawama Are Feeling Isolated and Threatened
The brazen approach taken by "resistance" factions in recent weeks was designed to undermine the government, but it is now coming back to hurt them.
Jun 19, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
The Last Vote? Obstacles to Renewing UN Cross-Border Assistance in Syria
Amid talk of a potential new Security Council resolution, veteran diplomats and aid practitioners debate the future of humanitarian assistance to needy Syrians.
Jun 16, 2021
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Basma Alloush
  • Carsten Wieland
Brief Analysis
Sword of Jerusalem vs. Guardian of the Walls: Gaza and the Next Lebanon War
The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”
Jun 15, 2021
◆
  • Assaf Orion

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