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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
State of Investigation? The International Criminal Court and the “Situation in Palestine”
The legal details of recent preliminary rulings presage the difficulties that the ICC will likely encounter while investigating the Israeli-Palestinian scene, highlighting the broader dilemma of importing political conflicts into the courtroom.
Aug 26, 2021
◆
  • Alexander Loengarov
Photo showing Taliban fighters outside Kabul Airport, August 2021.
Video
Brief Analysis
From Afghanistan to the Middle East:
Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Victory
Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.
Aug 26, 2021
◆
  • Kathryn Wheelbarger
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
  • Patrick Clawson
Photo showing Taliban fighters outside Kabul Airport, August 2021.
Articles & Testimony
The Taliban Is Back, and the World’s Jihadis Are Coming
Much ink has been spilled about a potential al-Qaeda comeback, but the Taliban’s return could also send insurgents and refugees streaming toward China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan.
Aug 18, 2021
◆
  • Roy Gutman
Articles & Testimony
How Russia Stands to Gain Thanks to Biden’s Afghanistan Disaster
Whether or not Russian leaders genuinely believe the Taliban will turn into a responsible stakeholder, they will likely be rewarded with more international and regional clout at Washington’s expense.
Aug 18, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
The Taliban flag on display in Kabul, Afghanistan
Brief Analysis
Return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: The Jihadist State of Play
Regardless of the Taliban’s promises to keep foreign terrorist elements in check, its victory is already boosting elements within the jihadist movement and may once again spur foreign fighter traffic to Afghanistan.
Aug 18, 2021
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Poised to Exploit the Uncertainties of the Afghan Collapse
Since the fall of Kabul—and well beforehand—Iranian officials have signaled how they might use a Taliban victory to further their goals in the Middle East, though they remain concerned about the fate of Afghan Shia.
Aug 18, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
PolicyCast Afghanistan Episode Cover
Audio
Articles & Testimony
Podcast: Middle East Fallout of the Afghanistan Withdrawal
Institute scholars share their insights into how the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rapid fall of the country to the Taliban will affect the American strategic position across the Middle East and our relationships with allies, partners, and adversaries
Aug 16, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Bilal Wahab
  • Kathryn Wheelbarger
A U.S. military helicopter evacuates personnel from the American embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan
Articles & Testimony
As America Exits, History Repeats Itself in Afghanistan
The question is whether and how these historical echoes will affect decisionmaking in Russia, Iran, China, Pakistan, and India.
Aug 14, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal
If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.
Aug 11, 2021
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s Crisis and UNIFIL’s Mandate Renewal
To make UNIFIL more effective and prevent dangerous destabilization in the south, the Security Council should review the force’s mandate more frequently, reallocate its resources to better fit its mission, make reporting more transparent and accurate, and hold the government and LAF accountable for their obstruction.
Aug 10, 2021
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Assaf Orion
Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz
Brief Analysis
Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response
Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.
Aug 9, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Do Aircraft Carriers Deter Iran?
There are more effective, less costly, and more sustainable ways to deter Tehran and shape its behavior than back-to-back deployments of carrier strike groups to the Gulf.
Aug 6, 2021
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Henry Mihm
Brief Analysis
Russia and Iran Are Supporting Assad’s Latest Attack on Deraa
The actions of Moscow and Tehran’s local forces say much about each country’s true intentions in the area, and the most immediate result could be more ethnic cleansing.
Aug 5, 2021
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Intelligence Organizations and Transnational Suppression
MOIS and other agencies have been surveilling, abducting, and murdering dissidents for nearly four decades now, brazenly conducting operations in foreign countries under hardline and “pragmatic” Iranian governments alike.
Aug 5, 2021
◆
  • Saeid Golkar
Muqawama fighters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Struggle to Show Cohesion on "Withdrawal" of U.S. Forces
A pan-Shia forum and Lebanese Hezbollah prodded the Tansiqiya to grudgingly paper over cracks in solidarity among resistance groups.
Aug 3, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iranian military drone aircraft on display.
Articles & Testimony
What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?
The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.
Aug 2, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Etejah
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Al-Etejah Satellite Television
A closer look at the "resistance" television channel owned and operated by U.S.-designated terrorist movement Kataib Hezbollah.
Aug 1, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Russian soldiers in Syria
Brief Analysis
Iran and Russia Are Exploiting America’s Absence in Northeast Syria
By redeploying their military and proxy forces, boosting Assad’s political campaigns, and resorting to various local intimidation tactics, the two countries are increasingly working together on establishing full control in Deir al-Zour.
Jul 29, 2021
◆
  • Oula A. Alrifai
  • Ali Alleile
Kataib Hezbollah Logo
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Muqawama Are Focusing Attack Claims on U.S. Bases in Syria
Iraqi militias have said more about attacking such bases in the past six weeks than they did in preceding years.
Jul 28, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb
In addition to renegotiating key parts of the JCPOA, expanding Israel’s arsenal is the best way to keep Tehran off the nuclear weapons threshold.
Jul 23, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross

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