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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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US Army soldiers on patrol in Iraq
Video
Brief Analysis
The War on Jihadism: Lessons from Twenty Years of Counterterrorism
Three French experts survey the evolution of twenty-first-century counterterrorism and assess how the struggles against jihadist and far-right violence need to adapt in the coming years.
Dec 22, 2021
◆
  • Marc Hecker
  • Elie Tenenbaum
  • Louis Dugit-Gros
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
IRGC Conducts “Hybrid” Military Drills as Nuclear Talks Teeter
The timing of the exercise and the types of systems and tactics on display reveal much about Iran’s likely response to any uptick in foreign pressure.
Dec 22, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Islamic State fighters in Iraq
In-Depth Reports
Soldiers of End-Times
Assessing the Military Effectiveness of the Islamic State
The IS military project led not only to the announcement of a “caliphate,” but to the proliferation of jihadist franchises that devastated countries, displaced millions, and killed tens of thousands.
Dec 21, 2021
◆
  • Ido Levy
Iranian Air Force Su-24 landing
Brief Analysis
Fighter Aircraft Could Give Iran a Nuclear Delivery Option
Newly disclosed interviews indicate that a key Pakistani source of Iran’s nuclear know-how also figured out how to equip F-16s with nukes.
Dec 20, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Would Russia Ever Help Syria Break Away From Iranian Influence?
Israel seems to hope that differences between Moscow and Tehran will emerge with greater clarity as the fighting ends, but this view reflects wishful thinking more than reality.
Dec 16, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Nujana Syria
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Playground: Kinetic Operations Refocus on East Syria
Iran-backed groups seem to be directing their more dangerous attacks against coalition forces in Syria, not Iraq, and the trend could accelerate in early 2022.
Dec 14, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Ballistic Missile Arsenal Is Still Growing in Size, Reach, and Accuracy
Tehran has doubled down on the strategic importance of missile systems that can threaten U.S. forces and allies, even as its defensive justifications for such an arsenal ring more hollow than ever.
Dec 13, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Muqawama assassination
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 2): December Attacks
Desperate militias are now killing Shia civilians in mass-casualty bombings as they try to assassinate Iraqi investigators and intelligence personnel.
Dec 10, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Militia Assassination Surge (Part 1): Sabereen and Unit 10,000 Threaten Iraqi Forces
Both outlets are openly advocating the murder of Iraqi security forces at a time of escalated shootings and bombings.
Dec 10, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here
Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.
Dec 10, 2021
◆
  • David Pollock
Akram speech
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi's Revealing Speech
Kaabi has long been Iran's chosen man in the self-styled Iraqi "resistance," and his latest remarks seemed like an attempt to seize control of militia public messaging.
Dec 9, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
An Egyptian guard inspects bomb damage near the Gaza border in Sinai
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Counterinsurgency Success in Sinai
The military’s shift to tribal engagement has helped reduce jihadist attacks, but Cairo’s lagging efforts on development and human rights could leave the peninsula open to a future resurgence.
Dec 9, 2021
◆
  • Ido Levy
US Army soldiers fire artillery in Syria
Brief Analysis
The Future of al-Tanf Garrison in Syria
The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.
Dec 6, 2021
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • David Schenker
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
Why Israel (Sort of) Misses the Iran Deal
Given the nuclear program’s advancement under the U.S. maximum pressure policy, a raft of Israeli officials now say the JCPOA was better than nothing—but rejoining it will be difficult.
Dec 6, 2021
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
A New Chance at Kingmaking for Iraqi Kurds
With militias on the back foot, the United States should lean on Kurdish and Iraqi leaders to find unity of purpose in confronting the destabilizing actions of pro-Iran groups.
Dec 1, 2021
◆
  • Bilal Wahab
KSS recruitment numbers
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
A Fake KSS Recruitment Drive
Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada may have exaggerated its recruiting numbers, but the episode points to militias' desperation to look potent and regain leverage by threatening to destabilize Iraq in early 2022.
Nov 27, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.
Brief Analysis
Reading Through Iran’s Nuclear Demands
Tehran has maintained its stringent line of insisting that Washington lift all sanctions, verify their removal, and provide future guarantees before it will lift a finger on resuming compliance with the JCPOA.
Nov 24, 2021
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
A Close Encounter of the Propaganda Kind in the Gulf
Despite more structured international maritime security measures, a recent encounter between Iranian and U.S. naval forces reiterated the potential for miscalculation, especially under a more assertive government in Tehran.
Nov 22, 2021
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
AK image
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Ashab al-Kahf's Takeover of the Convoy Strategy
Militia attacks on supply convoys are experiencing a (likely temporary) lull, and the sub-group Ashab al-Kahf appears to have taken the lead.
Nov 22, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Fake image of MC-12W Liberty over Baghdad concurrent with Nov 7 attack
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Technical Disinformation and the Nov. 7 Drone Attack
To deflect responsibility for the assassination attempt on Iraq’s prime minister, self-styled "resistance" groups have assembled a dodgy dossier of convincing-looking disinformation.
Nov 17, 2021
◆
  • Anwar al-Zamani
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight

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