Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

Two Years On, the Abraham Accords Bear Fruit

The Abraham Accords agreement between the UAE and Israel has made important steps in the direction of regional economic and political cooperation.

Oct 26, 2022

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Mohamed Maher

Brief Analysis

Snapback Sanctions on Iran: More Bark Than Bite?

Threatening to reimpose old UN sanctions would likely have little practical effect on Tehran’s ability to trade oil and export drones, while the plethora of other potential complications suggest that it should be treated as a tool of last resort.

Oct 25, 2022

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Henry Rome
Louis Dugit-Gros

Fikra Forum

Daesh’s Forgotten Massacre in Deir al-Zour

Justice for the victims of the al-Shaitat massacre is only just starting to emerge, and the international community must do its part.

Oct 24, 2022

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Omar Abu Layla

Fikra Forum

Will Haftar’s Heir Be an Ally of the Russians or the Americans?

As Libya's political dynamics continue to change, Washington's next moves are more important than ever.

Oct 21, 2022

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Khalil El Hasse

Houthi leader Abdul-Malik Badruddin al-Houthi addresses a rally in Sanaa, Yemen - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Houthi Jihad Council: Command and Control in ‘the Other Hezbollah’

The Houthi relationship with the IRGC and Lebanese Hezbollah has grown to the point that regardless of whether fighting in Yemen wanes, the Gulf movement may still play an integrated role in Iran’s future military adventures.

October 2022

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Michael Knights
Adnan al-Gabarni
Casey Coombs

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Fighting Jihadists By, With, and Through U.S. Partners:

Lessons Learned and Future Prospects

Special forces have succeeded especially in such missions, but any BWT effort requires some U.S. ground presence to achieve its goals.

Oct 20, 2022

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Ido Levy

Brief Analysis

Scoring Iraq’s New Government: Metrics for Preserving U.S. Interests

The protracted post-election process has been a step backward for Iraqi democracy, so Washington will need to closely monitor the new leadership’s actions and hold Baghdad to measurable benchmarks.

Oct 19, 2022

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Michael Knights

Flag of the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)

Fikra Forum

Shifting Lines and IDPs: Azaz, Afrin, and the HTS Incursion

HTS is on the move through northern Syria, leaving locals in Afrin and Azaz even more vulnerable.

Oct 19, 2022

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Rena Netjes

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

China's Security Presence in the Middle East:

Redlines and Guidelines for the United States

A more assertive Beijing means that Washington must work harder to protect its traditional partnerships and secure sensitive information.

Oct 18, 2022

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Grant Rumley

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Pivot Away from U.S. Targets, Toward Kurdistan and Turkish Bases

Attack metrics prove that Iran-backed groups currently see more profit in striking "near enemies" than American forces.

Oct 17, 2022

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Eric Feely

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Israel Debates the Lebanon Maritime Deal

The imminent election and the resultant rush to strike a deal are distracting from what could be a significant diplomatic and economic milestone for both countries.

Oct 13, 2022

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David Makovsky

Fighters of Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), walk together near Baghouz, Deir Al Zor province - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The SDF Is Caught Between Turkey and the Islamic State Again

As happened with past incursions, Erdogan’s latest invasion threats and preparatory strikes are fatally distracting the SDF from its crucial counterterrorism mission—and at a time when jihadist activities against it are on the rise.

Oct 12, 2022

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Ido Levy

Fikra Forum

Insight into As-Suwayda’s Position in the Syrian Situation

As-Suwayda has been unstable since the onset of the Syrian revolution. The increasingly fractured political leadership in this majority-Druze region reflects how Syria’s ongoing conflict has warped and splintered local governance.

Oct 12, 2022

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Ishtar Al Shami

Articles & Testimony

Ten Years After Benghazi: Getting Past Groundhog Day

Of all the conflict-riven countries in the Middle East, Libya still has the greatest potential for resolution in a way that could benefit the wider region, Europe, and the United States.

October-November 2022

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Ben Fishman

Fikra Forum

Iran’s Dilemma in Managing Shiite Conflicts in Iraq

Iran has recently adopted a more hands-off approach in Iraqi politics, hoping that the internal fractures will eventually work in their favor.

Oct 6, 2022

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Firas Elias

Baquer Namazi, a dual U.S.-Iranian citizen who had been imprisoned in Iran, shakes hands with an Omani official in Muscat - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The Latest Chapter in Iran’s Hostage Diplomacy

U.S. policymakers should be careful about concluding that Tehran’s decision to relax restrictions on two detained American citizens has anything to do with the nuclear talks.

Oct 6, 2022

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Henry Rome

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States

The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.

Oct 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Fikra Forum

The Captagon War: Smuggling on the Jordanian-Syrian Border

As drug smuggling increases across Jordan’s border with Syria, Jordanian authorities need to seek solutions in both the security and social spheres.

Sep 30, 2022

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Saud Al-Sharafat

A woman at the Al-Hawl detention camp in Syria - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Detention Facilities in Syria, Iraq Remain Vulnerable to Islamic State Attacks

An attempted suicide operation against al-Hawl camp highlights the ongoing risks posed by indefinite detention of foreigners associated with IS.

Sep 29, 2022

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Devorah Margolin

Supported by the

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The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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