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Military and Security

Policy Analysis on Military and Security

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Iran warhead on Iran map
In-Depth Reports
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks: Openings and Obstacles
Transition 2021
A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.
Jan 5, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Why an Iran Attack Could Be Biden’s “Hour One” Crisis
Tehran and its proxies may wait until after inauguration to take any action, potentially leaving Biden to decide how to balance the safety of American personnel with the chance for reengagement.
Jan 2, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
A Missile Defense “Manhattan Project” in the Middle East
One of the fruits of Arab-Israeli normalization should be more robust U.S.-led missile defense collaboration between states that face the greatest threat from Iran.
Dec 30, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Submarine Movements on Iran’s Doorstep: Military and Legal Implications
Unusual deployments by the U.S. and Israeli navies may be intended to deter Iranian attacks in the Gulf, but both moves are ripe for misinterpretation in Tehran.
Dec 29, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Presidential Elections in the United States: Political and Economic Consequences for Europe
There is greater American bipartisan consensus on national security strategy than Washington’s fractious politics would indicate, creating ample room for transatlantic cooperation on that front.
December 2020
◆
  • Michael Singh
  • Charles Thépaut
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks
In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.
Dec 18, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack
Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.
Dec 11, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Take a Strategic View Towards Iraq
The country need not be a top foreign policy priority, but the Biden administration would be wise to invest in Iraqi security, unity, and democracy amid competition with Russia, China, and Iran.
Dec 8, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Russian president Vladimir Putin
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Soft Power Projection in the Middle East
Moscow conducts far more soft-power activity in the region than one might suspect, using subversive and opaque versions of the same tools employed by the West.
Dec 4, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price
Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.
Dec 3, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?
The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.
Dec 3, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Who Killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's Nuclear Chief? Israel Is the Likely Suspect
The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.
Nov 27, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Houthi Terrorism Designation More Likely to Deliver Famine and Entanglement Than Leverage
To stave off a potential humanitarian disaster in Yemen, keep communication lines open, and avoid getting drawn into the war, the Trump administration should not designate the Houthis.
Nov 25, 2020
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
Articles & Testimony
How Biden Can Restore America’s Role Abroad
Doing so means finding the right mix of hard and soft power, creating new mechanisms with democratic allies, and answering hard questions about various countries and conflicts in the Middle East.
Nov 20, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Violence Erupts in Western Sahara
If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.
Nov 17, 2020
◆
  • Sarah Feuer
Brief Analysis
Latest Iran Nuclear Inspection Report Reveals Multiple Concerns
Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.
Nov 16, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Turkey in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Recipe for Long-Term Instability
Neither Moscow nor Ankara is interested in genuine peace; they are using the disputed region to their own ends, and Russia remains the only actor who can talk to all sides.
Oct 30, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Back into the Shadows? The Future of Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran's Other Proxies in Iraq
History may be repeating itself as Tehran develops new, smaller, and more secure Iraqi cells reminiscent of the formation of KH itself.
Oct 23, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Tehran Eyes Lifting of Arms Embargo
The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.
Oct 16, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi

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