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Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East

Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.

Charles Thépaut
Pierre Morcos

Iran warhead on Iran map

In-Depth Reports

The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks: Openings and Obstacles

Transition 2021

A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.

Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Why an Iran Attack Could Be Biden’s “Hour One” Crisis

Tehran and its proxies may wait until after inauguration to take any action, potentially leaving Biden to decide how to balance the safety of American personnel with the chance for reengagement.

Michael Knights

Iranian rockets and flag

A Missile Defense “Manhattan Project” in the Middle East

One of the fruits of Arab-Israeli normalization should be more robust U.S.-led missile defense collaboration between states that face the greatest threat from Iran.

Michael Knights

Submarine Movements on Iran’s Doorstep: Military and Legal Implications

Unusual deployments by the U.S. and Israeli navies may be intended to deter Iranian attacks in the Gulf, but both moves are ripe for misinterpretation in Tehran.

Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Presidential Elections in the United States: Political and Economic Consequences for Europe

There is greater American bipartisan consensus on national security strategy than Washington’s fractious politics would indicate, creating ample room for transatlantic cooperation on that front.

Michael Singh
Charles Thépaut

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks

In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.

Farzin Nadimi

Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack

Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.

Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin

The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.

Soner Cagaptay

Articles & Testimony

The U.S. Should Take a Strategic View Towards Iraq

The country need not be a top foreign policy priority, but the Biden administration would be wise to invest in Iraqi security, unity, and democracy amid competition with Russia, China, and Iran.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Russian president Vladimir Putin

Articles & Testimony

Russia’s Soft Power Projection in the Middle East

Moscow conducts far more soft-power activity in the region than one might suspect, using subversive and opaque versions of the same tools employed by the West.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price

Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.

Farzin Nadimi

Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?

The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.

Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

Who Killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's Nuclear Chief? Israel Is the Likely Suspect

The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.

Simon Henderson

Houthi Terrorism Designation More Likely to Deliver Famine and Entanglement Than Leverage

To stave off a potential humanitarian disaster in Yemen, keep communication lines open, and avoid getting drawn into the war, the Trump administration should not designate the Houthis.

Elana DeLozier

Articles & Testimony

How Biden Can Restore America’s Role Abroad

Doing so means finding the right mix of hard and soft power, creating new mechanisms with democratic allies, and answering hard questions about various countries and conflicts in the Middle East.

Dennis Ross

Violence Erupts in Western Sahara

If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.

Sarah Feuer

Latest Iran Nuclear Inspection Report Reveals Multiple Concerns

Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Russia and Turkey in Nagorno-Karabakh: A Recipe for Long-Term Instability

Neither Moscow nor Ankara is interested in genuine peace; they are using the disputed region to their own ends, and Russia remains the only actor who can talk to all sides.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

Back into the Shadows? The Future of Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran's Other Proxies in Iraq

History may be repeating itself as Tehran develops new, smaller, and more secure Iraqi cells reminiscent of the formation of KH itself.

Michael Knights

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