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Military and Security

Policy Analysis on Military and Security

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Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in 2020
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s First 200 Days: The Security Agenda
Many of the administration’s early Middle East security efforts will boil down to crisis management, but new frameworks like the Abraham Accords may provide opportunities to address longer-term problems.
Jan 20, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Changing of the Guard: New Iraqi Militia Trends and Responses
In the year since their most iconic leaders were killed, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have been changing in crucial ways, providing rich insights into how Baghdad and its international partners should approach them in 2021.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
Articles & Testimony
Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions
Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?
The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.
Jan 15, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Christine McVann
Brief Analysis
Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging
Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.
Jan 14, 2021
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
UAVs and the Abraham Accords: New Horizons for Sinai Peacekeeping
Replacing manned monitoring missions with drone sorties and inviting Gulf countries to participate would help improve security, reduce America’s burden and risk, decrease costs, and bolster the regional peace architecture.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The U.S. Designation of Kataib Hezbollah’s Abu Fadak
The latest sanctions against a senior leader in the Iranian-backed terrorist militia are a reminder that such figures cannot slip onto the political spectrum merely by changing their job title.
Jan 13, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
New Iranian Bill Aims to Officialize a Policy of Avenging Soleimani and Destroying Israel
In addition to prohibiting any negotiations over Iran’s military power or regional ambitions, the legislation would oblige the government to work toward evicting the United States from the Middle East and destroying Israel within twenty years.
Jan 12, 2021
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance
Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.
Jan 8, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Leveraging U.S. Sanctions on Faleh al-Fayyad
The Biden administration should embrace the new sanctions against the civilian head of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, a decision that is supported by strong evidence of human rights abuses and can help hold other violators accountable.
Jan 8, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East
Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.
Jan 6, 2021
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  • Charles Thépaut
  • Pierre Morcos
Iran warhead on Iran map
In-Depth Reports
The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks: Openings and Obstacles
Transition 2021
A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.
Jan 5, 2021
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  • Dennis Ross
Articles & Testimony
Why an Iran Attack Could Be Biden’s “Hour One” Crisis
Tehran and its proxies may wait until after inauguration to take any action, potentially leaving Biden to decide how to balance the safety of American personnel with the chance for reengagement.
Jan 2, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
A Missile Defense “Manhattan Project” in the Middle East
One of the fruits of Arab-Israeli normalization should be more robust U.S.-led missile defense collaboration between states that face the greatest threat from Iran.
Dec 30, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Submarine Movements on Iran’s Doorstep: Military and Legal Implications
Unusual deployments by the U.S. and Israeli navies may be intended to deter Iranian attacks in the Gulf, but both moves are ripe for misinterpretation in Tehran.
Dec 29, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Presidential Elections in the United States: Political and Economic Consequences for Europe
There is greater American bipartisan consensus on national security strategy than Washington’s fractious politics would indicate, creating ample room for transatlantic cooperation on that front.
December 2020
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  • Michael Singh
  • Charles Thépaut
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks
In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.
Dec 18, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack
Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.
Dec 11, 2020
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  • Matthew Levitt
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Take a Strategic View Towards Iraq
The country need not be a top foreign policy priority, but the Biden administration would be wise to invest in Iraqi security, unity, and democracy amid competition with Russia, China, and Iran.
Dec 8, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya

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