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Military and Security

Policy Analysis on Military and Security

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Brief Analysis
Attributing the Erbil Attack: The Role of Open-Source Monitoring
Even Iran’s proxies now have proxies, but authorities can still untangle and attribute their illegal acts through expanded use of rich open-source evidence.
Feb 24, 2021
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  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
U.S. and Israeli flags
Brief Analysis
Israel Braces for U.S. Revival of the JCPOA
The best approach for both governments is to internalize lessons from 2015 and enter a comprehensive, discreet discussion focusing on constructive ideas and realistic outcomes.
Feb 22, 2021
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  • Michael Herzog
Articles & Testimony
Rocket Attacks on Erbil: Part 2
The U.S. response needs to get more specific, while the KRG and Baghdad need to patch up their urgent security differences and stop entangling them with broader territorial, constitutional, or budgetary issues.
Feb 18, 2021
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  • David Pollock
President Joe Biden speaks on the phone in the Oval Office of the White House
Articles & Testimony
Iran Just Handed Biden His First Credibility Test
Proxy rocket attacks in Iraq require a clear response, otherwise the safety of U.S. troops and the prospect of nuclear negotiations will both be in doubt.
Feb 17, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Rockets over Erbil: How to Respond to an Iraqi Militia Outrage
Iran-backed militias took the unprecedented step of rocketing a major city and U.S. base in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the Biden administration must quickly find its own formula for restoring deterrence.
Feb 16, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s Iran Dilemma
Tehran’s nuclear and regional activities are part of a single strategy that aims to paralyze stronger foes, so Washington’s policies for responding to each challenge should likewise overlap considerably.
February 2021
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Narrative: The Regime Is Not in a Hurry, But Washington Should Be
By steadily implementing parliament’s anti-JCPOA law and making public statements about “cornered cats” and “closing windows,” Tehran has sought to give Washington a sense of urgency, but this approach could be a double-edged sword.
Feb 11, 2021
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  • Omer Carmi
Map "Syria's Borders Are Under External Control"
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
The Assad Regime Has Failed to Restore Full Sovereignty Over Syria
By ceding control of its borders and airspace to various foreign actors, the regime has essentially resigned itself to a limited but potentially durable existence for the long term.
Feb 10, 2021
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  • Fabrice Balanche
Syria chessboard international and local players
In-Depth Reports
Syria at the Center of Power Competition and Counterterrorism
Even as U.S. policymakers must stay focused on the Assad regime’s culpability, they also face a complex web of power dynamics in which Russia, Turkey, Iran, Israel, and other actors are attempting to secure their various interests.
Feb 8, 2021
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  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
How the United States Should View Iraq’s Shrine Militias
Despite welcoming the idea of separating the nationalist “shrine units” from the Iran-leaning Popular Mobilization Forces, Washington should lighten its touch on the issue.
Feb 5, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking
The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."
Feb 4, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Iranian military leaders inspect drones.
Brief Analysis
Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics
Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.
Jan 29, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Oman’s Sultan Caps First Year by Appointing Heir and New Military Leadership
Sultan Haitham’s latest decrees elevated his son to heir, sacked commanders, and spotlighted his brother’s influence, but the government’s main focus is still squarely on economic reform.
Jan 28, 2021
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
CENTCOM seal
Brief Analysis
Moving Israel to CENTCOM: Another Step Into the Light
The new command shift, which is rooted in years of growing collaboration away from the limelight, promises to facilitate bilateral and regional security cooperation and burden sharing, while the IDF-EUCOM-CENTCOM experience sets the stage for the next frontier: U.S.-Israeli military dialogue on the China-Iran partnership.
Jan 28, 2021
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  • Assaf Orion
  • Mark Montgomery
Brief Analysis
Baghdad Bombing Spurs Major Intelligence and Military Reshuffle
The Iraqi government continues to sharpen the leadership of various commands and bolster civilian control, giving the U.S.-led coalition more leverage to fight the Islamic State with a light footprint.
Jan 26, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?
Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.
Jan 22, 2021
◆
  • Ilari Papa
Former Vice President Joe Biden speaks in 2020
Articles & Testimony
Biden’s First 200 Days: The Security Agenda
Many of the administration’s early Middle East security efforts will boil down to crisis management, but new frameworks like the Abraham Accords may provide opportunities to address longer-term problems.
Jan 20, 2021
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Changing of the Guard: New Iraqi Militia Trends and Responses
In the year since their most iconic leaders were killed, Iran-backed militias in Iraq have been changing in crucial ways, providing rich insights into how Baghdad and its international partners should approach them in 2021.
Jan 19, 2021
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
Articles & Testimony
Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions
Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.
Jan 19, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?
The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.
Jan 15, 2021
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
  • Christine McVann

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