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Iraq

Policy Analysis on Iraq

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Is There a "Limited Force" Option?

For now, the Bush administration eschews the use of force while preparing for its use. But what will happen if a consensus develops that President Bush's diplomatic and economic approach is ineffective while a full-scale attack on Iraqi forces remains unattractive? As an additional buildup of U.S. forces gets underway

The Threatened Anti-Iraq Coalition

In the Persian Gulf today, as so often in international affairs, keeping one's options open seems an attractive alternative. In the long run, however, this is really an illusory choice since the course of events may be determined by decisions taken by others or unforeseen complications. To govern, as the

Measuring Saddam's Arab Support

The recent violence in Jerusalem has again raised fears that Iraq can utilize the Arab-Israeli conflict to break the coalition opposed to its aggression. An accurate assessment of Saddam Hussein's support among non-Iraqi Arabs is critical to understanding this question, as well as the impact of the Gulf crisis on

Barry Rubin

Is the United States Vulnerable to Saddam?

As the United States enters the third month of its deployment in the Persian Gulf, there is increasing concern about what Saddam Hussein could do to undermine American will or reverse Iraqi diplomatic isolation. Given the array of forces against it and faith in an ability to outlast the world

In-Depth Reports

Iraq's Economic and Military Vulnerabilities

"Will sanctions against Iraq work?" is a question too ambiguous to be useful. It leaves unspecified such key issues as what we want sanctions to accomplish and how Iraq would react if sanctions started to pinch. And, then, how much does Saddam Hussein care about what happens to Iraq's economy

Patrick Clawson

The Iraq Crisis and Regional Arms Control

One of the most controversial statements during this crisis was Secretary of State James Baker's call for a new Persian Gulf security framework. If Saddam Hussein and/or Iraq's military might survive this confrontation, local states will face continued threats. For them to cooperate with the United States now they must

Moscow in the Middle East: The Impact of New Thinking

Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze is using the Gulf crisis as a catalyst for farreaching changes in Moscow's Middle East policy. Moscow is putting the emphasis on improving relations with the West and with the wealthy Persian Gulf states at the expense of Arab radicals. Shevardnadze's UN speech was remarkable

John Hannah

Will the United States Go to War?

Impatience and doubts about the slow-working process of diplomacy and economic sanctions has led many to call for quick military action against Iraq. While the United States could eventually prevail in such a conflict, the anticipated high cost in American casualties will make President Bush less eager to pursue a

The Mood in Baghdad: Arrogance and Fear

Saddam Hussein's threats to attack Israel or Saudi oil fields if sanctions begin to strangle him must be taken seriously by defenders of those purported targets but are most likely bluffs to forestall the mounting pressure on Iraq and raise his subjects' morale. It is not clear that Iraq has

Barry Rubin

Can the United States Liberate Kuwait Today?

Many commentators and policy-makers in Washington are calling for U.S. military action to dislodge Iraq from Kuwait. While this option may be attractive in principle, today it is impossible in practice. Indeed, according to Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, the U.S. military still has some way to go before it can

The U.S. Strategy Debate over the Gulf

The danger of a U.S.-Iraq military confrontation may be receding for the time being. But now the debate in the administration, Congress, and the public faces a new issue: will the Bush Administration's multilateral strategy prevent it from taking unilateral military action if Saddam Hussein refuses to withdraw from Kuwait

Meeting in Amman: The Perils of Negotiation

As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible

Barry Rubin

In-Depth Reports

'The Sword of the Arabs': Iraq's Strategic Weapons

Since the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq has intensified, expanded, and diversified its effort to enhance its strategic capabilities, including efforts to develop or acquire unconventional weapons, long-range strike systems, and strategic reconnaissance systems. Iraq has traditionally aspired to be a regional power and its new strategic capabilities provide

Michael Eisenstadt

In-Depth Reports

The Genie Unleashed: Iraq's Chemical and Biological Weapons Production

The unrestricted use of chemical weapons during the last stages of the Iran-Iraq war shocked the international community. In a belated response, the world’s industrialized countries, led by the United States, have initiated a campaign to halt the proliferation of chemical and biological weapons. International efforts have concentrated on stopping

Middle East Overview

Copyright 2004 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Total Shia Method of Attack

Total Shia Method of Attack, April-August 2004 (Minimum 10 Incidents: Represents 396 out of 474 Incidents) The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Copyright 2004

Iraq: Violence in Shia and Sunni Areas

Shows the relative number of reported incidents in Shia and Sunni locations, August 2004 The Washington Institute for Near East Policy Copyright 2004

Shia vs Sunni Locations

Relative Number of Incidents Shia vs Sunni Locations, April-June 2004 (620 of 746 Incidents) The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Sunni vs. Shia, Coalition KIA

Sunni vs. Shia, Coalition KIA, April-August 2004 (376 KIA) The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Total Sunni Method of Attack

Total Sunni Method of Attack, from April-August 2004 (Minimum 10 Incidents: Represents 805 out of 857 Incidents) Washington Institute for Near East Policy

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