Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Nujaba's Regime Change Threat to the Kurdistan Democratic Party

With its first Kurdish-language video, the militia has upped the stakes by hinting at regime change in Iraqi Kurdistan.

Mar 21, 2022

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Don’t Drop Iran’s Revolutionary Guards from FTO List

On paper, removing the IRGC from just one of several U.S. designation lists would have few if any legal implications—but it's still a terrible idea.

Mar 21, 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

How Much Would Iran Gain Financially from Returning to the JCPOA?

A closer look at what funds would actually be accessible and what impact they would have on Iran’s economy.

Mar 16, 2022

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Katherine Bauer
Patrick Clawson

An Iranian Fateh-110 mobile missile launcher on parade

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Cross-Border Strikes: A Pattern in Search of a Policy

The latest strike on Iraq points to a brazen, illegal, and dangerous strategy of exercising leverage via missile and drone attacks—a practice that has gone unchecked for too long.

Mar 15, 2022

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Michael Knights

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmon durnig a meeting with Russian President Vladimor Putin in Rihady - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

As the Ukraine Crisis Continues, the West Needs a Middle East Assist

The outcome of Israeli diplomacy, Iranian oil decisions, and Gulf hesitance may play a crucial role in the crisis, particularly if it drags on for months rather than weeks.

Mar 7, 2022

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Simon Henderson

A Ukrainian flag flies at a naval base in Crimea in 2014 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Middle East Responses to the Ukraine Crisis

So far, official statements from the region have ranged from rejecting Russia’s moves to treating them as a natural extension of existing policy.

Updated Mar 4, 2022

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Margaret Dene
Hannah Labow
Carol Silber

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets with Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed in 2018 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Putin’s War Has Middle Eastern Countries Hedging Their Bets

Facing greater regional demands and limited resources, Washington will have to be more judicious in its obligations and more consistent in following through, lest its assurances fail to assure.

Mar 4, 2022

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David Schenker

Photo showing the image of a masked nurse projected onto Iran's Azadi Monument.

Video

Brief Analysis

COVID in the Middle East: Assessment on the Eve of Year Three

Leading public health experts take stock of the pandemic's regional outlook, discussing which approaches have been most effective in different jurisdictions while acknowledging the persistent limits of COVID data.

Mar 3, 2022

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Dr. Sharon Alroy-Preis
Abraham Flaxman
Dr. Kamiar Alaei

United Nations headquarters building in New York - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

The UN Resolution on Ukraine: How Did the Middle East Vote?

A comprehensive record of what regional officials said—or didn’t say—about the emergency wartime vote in the General Assembly.

Mar 2, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Game of Drones

After decades of steady development, Tehran now uses drones to complement its missiles and support the broader effort to bring the entire Middle East within its range.

Mar 2, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Third Cultural Revolution

President Raisi is accelerating Ayatollah Khamenei’s plan to Islamize the university system, with apparently little regard for how previous campaigns sent Iran plummeting down the regional rankings for higher education.

Feb 28, 2022

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Saeid Golkar

Photo illustration of Russian Ruble banknotes with Chinese and Russian flags - Source:TWI/Reuters

Brief Analysis

A China-Russia SWIFT Alternative Will Not Undermine Iran Sanctions

There is no realistic prospect that Beijing and Moscow will establish a viable joint system that imminently and significantly reduces Tehran’s difficulties with accessing the international financial system.

Feb 25, 2022

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Steven Terner

In-Depth Reports

Three Presidents, Three Flawed Iran Policies, and the Path Ahead

News reports of a nearing breakthrough in the Iran nuclear talks will trigger sighs of relief, but the deal will likely prove disappointing on many fronts.

Feb 25, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

Trends in Iranian External Assassination, Surveillance, and Abduction Plots

Law enforcement actions and financial designations are appropriate but insufficient—the attacks will not stop without firm diplomatic isolation, travel and study bans on family members of Iranian leaders, and other direct consequences for regime decisionmakers.

February 2022

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

A Goldilocks Approach to Sanctioning Yemen’s Houthis

Although the group undoubtedly merits FTO designation, issuing targeted sanctions with broader UN buy-in may achieve better results without the humanitarian complications.

Feb 18, 2022

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Katherine Bauer

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Breaks His Silence on the Nuclear Negotiations

After months of publicly ignoring the issue, the Supreme Leader reminded negotiators to follow his guidelines but refrained from explicitly supporting or rejecting the state of play in Vienna.

Feb 17, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa Khaibar

With probable links to Kataib Hezbollah, this minor facade group claimed a major rocket attack on al-Asad Air Base, but mainly limits itself to claimed bombings against U.S. supply convoys.

Feb 15, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

In Iranian general unveils a new solid-fuel "Khaybar Sheikan" missile

Brief Analysis

Iran Takes Next Steps on Rocket Technology

Solid-propellant motors represent the future for the Islamic Republic, promising much longer ranges and orbit reach for its space and ballistic missile programs.

Feb 11, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran Is Preparing Its Public, But Not (Yet) for Nuclear Compromise

Despite its iron grip at home, the regime generally seeks to build domestic support for its policies—so what outcome has it been prepping the public for during the nuclear talks?

Feb 3, 2022

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Jason Brodsky
Omer Carmi

Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz is greeted by a Bahraini defense official upon his arrival in Manama - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Israeli Defense Minister’s Visit to Bahrain Marks Major Advance

Iran is the dominant issue as top officials meet to finalize security pacts.

Feb 2, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Regions & Countries

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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