Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iranian Membership in the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Motivations and Implications

The Russian/Chinese-led bloc is expected to approve Iran’s accession this week amid uncertainty over President Raisi’s foreign posture and ongoing turmoil in Afghanistan.

Sep 15, 2021

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Nicole Grajewski

Brief Analysis

Sistani vs. the Militias: The Future of Iraqi Sovereignty

The international community needs to pay more attention to developments in Najaf, where Sistani-backed groups are forcefully pushing back against Iran but still face the longer-term question of who will continue his message.

Sep 14, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Proxies in Iraq Undertake the World's Only Terrorist Attack Commemorating 9/11

Two drones were intercepted in a mission that Sabereen News dedicated to “reminding the Americans of the September 11 attacks."

Sep 14, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Badr Organization

Badr is the wellspring of many of today's armed resistance groups and still operates under the indirect and sometimes direct control of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Sep 2, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: The Iraqi Radio and Television Union

An overview of Iraq's offshoot of the Islamic Radio and Television Union, an Iranian umbrella group that provides support to "resistance" media outlets.

Sep 2, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Brief Analysis

Last Call for Gaza?

Proposing an Alternative to Israeli-Palestinian “Conflict Management”

With Iran looming ever larger as Israel’s top security priority, the window for breaking the dangerous cycle of ceasefire and conflagration with the Palestinians may be closing—unless all of the actors are willing to throw their weight behind a fresh “4x4” strategy.

Aug 30, 2021

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Dror Shalom

Photo showing Taliban fighters outside Kabul Airport, August 2021.

Video

Brief Analysis

From Afghanistan to the Middle East:

Implications of the U.S. Withdrawal and Taliban Victory

Three Institute scholars discuss the fallout from Kabul, with special focus on the consequences for global jihadism, Iranian policy, and regional responses.

Aug 26, 2021

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Kathryn Wheelbarger
Aaron Y. Zelin
Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

Bennett Meets Biden: Resetting the Tone and Discussing Differences

The two leaders have been looking forward to an upbeat summit, but the test will be if they can establish trust and work through their differences on thorny regional issues.

Aug 25, 2021

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David Makovsky

Articles & Testimony

Biden Will Discover Bennett Is No Bibi

Given Bennett’s emphasis on bipartisanship and Biden’s desire for good news, Washington has ample room to avoid the public tensions seen during Netanyahu's tenure.

Aug 25, 2021

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David Makovsky

In-Depth Reports

A Strategy to Contain Hezbollah:

Ideas and Recommendations

Since securing a parliamentary majority, the group has consistently prioritized its own interests over those of the Lebanese people through practices such as illicit drug production, sex trafficking, and the buildup of its military arsenal.

Aug 24, 2021

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Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

The Taliban Is Back, and the World’s Jihadis Are Coming

Much ink has been spilled about a potential al-Qaeda comeback, but the Taliban’s return could also send insurgents and refugees streaming toward China, Russia, Iran, Pakistan, and Uzbekistan.

Aug 18, 2021

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Roy Gutman

Brief Analysis

Iran Is Poised to Exploit the Uncertainties of the Afghan Collapse

Since the fall of Kabul—and well beforehand—Iranian officials have signaled how they might use a Taliban victory to further their goals in the Middle East, though they remain concerned about the fate of Afghan Shia.

Aug 18, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

How Iran’s Deadly Tanker Attack Is Linked to the Nuclear Deal

If the United States does not respond to the drone strike off Oman, it could impair rather than facilitate progress on the JCPOA talks.

Aug 11, 2021

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Robert Satloff

Iranian sailors on board a naval vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Brief Analysis

Iran-Israel Escalation at Sea: The Need for an International Coalition Response

Lethal targeting and other signs of escalation point to the necessity of a robust international maritime security force with a strong UN mandate.

Aug 9, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Do Aircraft Carriers Deter Iran?

There are more effective, less costly, and more sustainable ways to deter Tehran and shape its behavior than back-to-back deployments of carrier strike groups to the Gulf.

Aug 6, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt
Henry Mihm

Brief Analysis

Russia and Iran Are Supporting Assad’s Latest Attack on Deraa

The actions of Moscow and Tehran’s local forces say much about each country’s true intentions in the area, and the most immediate result could be more ethnic cleansing.

Aug 5, 2021

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Oula A. Alrifai

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Intelligence Organizations and Transnational Suppression

MOIS and other agencies have been surveilling, abducting, and murdering dissidents for nearly four decades now, brazenly conducting operations in foreign countries under hardline and “pragmatic” Iranian governments alike.

Aug 5, 2021

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Saeid Golkar

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Struggle to Show Cohesion on "Withdrawal" of U.S. Forces

A pan-Shia forum and Lebanese Hezbollah prodded the Tansiqiya to grudgingly paper over cracks in solidarity among resistance groups.

Aug 3, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

What If It’s Not a Tactic? Khamenei’s Waning Faith in the JCPOA

The Supreme Leader’s rhetoric in recent months indicates that Iran's experience under the nuclear deal has made him gun-shy about returning to that framework.

Aug 3, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Iranian military drone aircraft on display.

Articles & Testimony

What’s Worse for the Price of Oil—a Belligerent Iran or a Resurgent COVID?

The latest price lurch was rooted in the pandemic’s impact on China’s economy, not the apparent Iranian strike on an Israeli tanker.

Aug 2, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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