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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Brief Analysis
Iraq Goes from Zurfi to Kadhimi: U.S. Policy Implications
If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.
Apr 9, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
By Mobilizing to Fight Coronavirus, the IRGC Is Marginalizing the Government
From establishing new provincial headquarters to deploying hundreds of thousands of troops and militia personnel on emergency duty, the Guards are seemingly using the crisis as an opportunity to expand their power at the local level.
Apr 8, 2020
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  • Saeid Golkar
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Corona Quagmire: An Opportunity to Empower the LAF
Now that Hezbollah realizes its efforts to hide virus cases won’t work anymore, Washington should urge Beirut to put LAF medical and border-control personnel to work without resorting to a full state of emergency.
Mar 31, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Sanctions Relief Isn’t Necessary to Assist Iran’s Coronavirus Response
Washington can facilitate aid without fundamentally altering the sanctions infrastructure, in part by clarifying the rules on allowable humanitarian trade, expanded NGO activities, and Tehran’s existing financial options.
Mar 31, 2020
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  • Katherine Bauer
  • Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition
Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.
Mar 30, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows
Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.
Mar 27, 2020
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  • Kevjn Lim
Brief Analysis
Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action
With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.
Mar 27, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Nowruz Speech in a Time of Coronavirus
His remarks focused on inspiring the nation to stay strong in the face of the crisis while refusing to trust U.S. aid, though without mentioning his normal laundry list of foreign policy issues.
Mar 23, 2020
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  • Omer Carmi
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Honored, Not Contained: The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces
In this detailed Policy Focus, meant as a primer for Iraqi and international agencies, leading scholars examine the current status of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces.
Mar 23, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Brief Analysis
Giving Iraq’s Next Prime Minister Space to Succeed
As the next well-qualified, Iraqi-chosen candidate navigates the delicate ratification process, Washington can avoid disrupting his efforts by temporarily ignoring militia provocations and providing quiet, symbolic support where needed.
Mar 17, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government
Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.
Mar 13, 2020
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  • Bilal Wahab
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Stop the Surge of Deadly Rocket Attacks in Iraq
Congress and the Trump administration should privately agree to some ground rules for timing deterrent strikes on truly high-value targets, while quietly deploying more force-protection assets like Patriot missiles.
Mar 13, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Culpability and Resiliency
Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies.
Mar 12, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
How Is the U.S. Targeted Killing of Qassem Soleimani Likely to Affect Hezbollah’s International Activities and Operations?
Revelations from a recent terrorism trial suggest that the group will be patient in avenging his death, but could eventually use the preoperational surveillance it regularly collects to carry out an attack.
Mar 11, 2020
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  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Crisis in Idlib
Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.
Mar 11, 2020
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  • Dana Stroul
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 1): Clerical Factors
The clergy’s ambitions for global Shia revolution made the city of Qom uniquely vulnerable to the disease, and their resistance to modern medical science weakened the state’s ability to combat its spread.
Mar 9, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Escalating Houthi Offensives in Yemen: U.S. Options
To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government’s forces and move more quickly on peace talks.
Mar 6, 2020
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  • Alex Almeida
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
Mar 5, 2020
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.
Mar 4, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
◆
  • Ariane Tabatabai
  • Mehdi Khalaji
  • Farzin Nadimi

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