Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Palestians on a Mediterranean beach in Gaza

Shifting East Mediterranean Tides: From Conflict to Club Med?

Although the worst-case scenarios of just a few years ago are in abeyance, the best-case ones of transformative cooperation are also still out of reach.

May 2022

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David Pollock

A Turkish Bayraktor UAV on display at an airshow - source: Reuters

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Muqawama's Duel with Turkey

Turkish counterstrikes may have instilled caution in militia rocketeers, suggesting more attacks may come against U.S. and Kurdish targets instead.

May 17, 2022

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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Israeli Prime Minister Bennett meets with the UAE's foreign minister in December 2021 - Source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Building an Arab-Israel Bloc: Can It Compensate for a Reluctant Washington?

Arab, European, and Israeli experts assess the possibilities and limits of normalization, discussing concerns about Iran’s nuclear program, U.S. retrenchment, and the Palestinian issue.

May 12, 2022

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Nickolay Mladenov
Zohar Palti
Ebtesam al-Ketbi
Karim Haggag

Qatari leader Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Qatari Visit to Iran Suggests Possible Policy Breakthroughs

The emir will likely seek a role in reviving the nuclear agreement, as well as Iranian help with accommodating World Cup fans later this year.

May 11, 2022

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Simon Henderson

In-Depth Reports

Countering Iran's Regional Strategy

A Long-Term, Comprehensive Approach

A coordinated response to Iran’s aggression can preserve U.S. and Western interests, reinforce Israel and America’s Arab allies, and promote regional stability.

May 8, 2022

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Eyal Zamir

A Ghauri nuclear-capable missile on parade in Pakistan

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Renewed Saudi-Pakistan Contacts Revive Nuclear Fears

Deadlock in the Iran nuclear talks may prompt action by Riyadh, with Pakistani support.

Apr 27, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 2): Attributing Attacks to Militia Platforms

Sabereen News has seemingly broadened its capabilities to include simple hacking tactics like DDoS attacks, and it might quickly proceed to more complex exploits.

Apr 25, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Cyber-Surge (Part 1): Chronology of Recent Attacks

Sabereen News appears to have added cyberattacks to its normal activities of spreading militia propaganda and disinformation, claiming operations against Israeli, Turkish, and Saudi targets.

Apr 25, 2022

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Saudi-Kuwaiti Tensions with Iran over Offshore Gas Field

A relatively straightforward legal dispute could have geopolitical consequences.

Apr 18, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Israeli Minister of Defense Benny Gantz - source: Israeli Ministry of Defense

Video

Brief Analysis

Defense Minister Benny Gantz Discusses Israel's Strategic Challenges

The country's top defense official shares his insights on recent terrorist attacks, the Iran nuclear talks, the Ukraine war, expanding cooperation with regional countries, and more.

Apr 11, 2022

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Benny Gantz

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Sabereen's Suspension (Part 2): Causes and Consequences

The network's hiatus may have been ordered in response to its recent lean toward Russia, or perhaps its role in enabling a controversial arson attack on a political office.

Apr 11, 2022

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Sabereen's Suspension (Part 1): Signs of Dissent and Noncompliance

The network was closed down almost entirely from March 28 to April 8, albeit with one apparent effort by rebellious members to refuse the suspension and blame Iran.

Apr 11, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Why Arab Allies Don’t Trust the U.S. on Ukraine

“This will not stand,” the president said after Iraq invaded Kuwait, but no such fortitude has been evident in response to Iran’s continued aggression.

Apr 9, 2022

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Robert Satloff

Rocket crater, Omar oilfield in Syria, April 6, 2022

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Spring Awakening: A New Wave of Militia Strikes or Just a Blip?

Militia groups appear to be increasingly exercising their different kinetic capabilities in Iraq and Syria, but why now?

Apr 8, 2022

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Russian President Vladimir Putin meets Chinese President Xi Jinping at a summit in Beijing - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

West’s Weakness Led Putin into Ukraine—and Other Enemies Are Looking for Similar Signs

Moscow has provided a wake-up call about how actors like Iran interpret habitual demonstrations of U.S. inaction.

Apr 8, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Kurdish Infighting Could Undermine a Sovereign Iraqi Government

Shortsighted squabbles between the KDP and PUK may soon wind up sending the country back to elections—and the threat of Iranian political domination.

Apr 5, 2022

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David Schenker

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

From Russia With Love? Sabereen's Ukraine Coverage

Alongside an apparent technical uplift, the militia network's coverage of the crisis has gone far beyond that of even the most pro-Russian outlets in Iraq.

Mar 24, 2022

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Declares His New Year’s Resolutions for Iran

His Nowruz speech largely sidestepped foreign policy and the nuclear negotiations, instead focusing on his vision for making the country more self-reliant via a knowledge-based economy.

Mar 22, 2022

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

The Baghdad-Kurdistan Energy Arena: Policy Opportunities

Washington has many good options for avoiding a Kurdish economic meltdown and turning Iraq’s internal energy dispute into a net win for all players, but it must pursue them quickly.

Mar 22, 2022

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

U.S. Public Diplomacy in Iran: Cutting Costs, Improving Impact

A more effective (and cost-effective) approach would give Iranians the tools they need to bypass regime monitoring, pare down low-impact television programming, and emphasize popular mobile apps.

Mar 21, 2022

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Arash Aalaei
Mehdi Khalaji

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Regions & Countries

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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