Should Obama Speak Out on Iran?

Updated, June 18, 1:30 p.m. | Tamim Ansary, author of two books on the Middle East, has joined our discussion. He argues that the U.S. can promote its interest in Iran best by doing least.


On Wednesday, as thousands of protesters continued to fill the streets in central Iran, the state-run media reported that the Iranian Foreign Ministry expressed displeasure at “interventionist” statements by American officials. President Barack Obama said earlier this week that he was “deeply troubled by the violence” in Iran and that democratic values needed to be observed. But he also said that it would be counterproductive for the United States “to be seen as meddling.”

He has come under some criticism for not calling the landslide victory of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad a fraud. Senator John McCain, for one, said, “He should speak out that this is a corrupt, flawed sham of an election and that the Iranian people have been deprived of their rights.”

Should President Obama speak out more forcefully against the Iranian authorities and their tightening control of the press and the protesters? Or are there good reasons to be more cautious?


Meddling Won’t Help

Fariborz Ghadar

Fariborz Ghadar, the director of the Center for Global Business Studies at Penn State University, is a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He held a vice-ministerial post in the Ministry of Commerce of Iran under the shah.

The Iranian election is a matter for the Iranian people. It is up to them to elect their leadership. Of course, we hope that the real will of the people will be reflected in their elections. But any other statement at this time by the President Obama and his administration would be counterproductive. If the intention is to help the opposition, it would likely back fire and have the regime call the opposition agents of the Great Satan.

Yet if we approve of the election results we will be abandoning the faction that believes the election has been stolen from them. Since we do not know what the actual results were, or likely to be, any statement is highly inappropriate and would be considered meddling by the majority of the Iranian public.

That said, there’s reason to be deeply concerned about the events in Iran. Peaceful dissent must not be suppressed, and human rights should be respected — which is what President Obama has already reiterated. We should refrain from being the world’s referee –- we are not perceived as unbiased, and certainly not in Iran.


Speak Truth to Power

James Phillips

James Phillips is senior research fellow for Middle Eastern affairs at the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies at the Heritage Foundation.

President Obama famously proclaimed in his inaugural speech: “To those who cling to power through corruption and deceit and the silencing of dissent, know that you are on the wrong side of history; but that we will extend a hand if you are willing to unclench your fist.”

The president should denounce the regime and its suppression of the opposition.

Now that it is clear that the regime’s fist remains tightly clenched around the neck of the Iranian people, the Obama administration can not simply take a business-as-usual approach to Iran’s clerical dictatorship. This would send a dangerous signal to the regime that it can forcefully crush the demonstrations at little or no cost in terms of international pressure.

President Obama must make it clear that the United States stands with the Iranian people, not with the repressive Islamist regime. He should strongly denounce the violent suppression of the democratic opposition and the systematic human rights abuses perpetrated by regime. Moreover, he should call on other world leaders to cooperate in pressuring Tehran to end its persecution of political reformers, human rights activists, and religious minorities.

Read more…


Dangers of a Weak Dictator

Sandeep Baliga

Sandeep Baliga is associate professor of managerial economics and decision sciences at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern.

A stolen election, and what it reveals about the security of Iran’s ruling elite, means that it is more important than ever to engage with Iran.

So far the signs from the Obama administration are encouraging: “The administration will deal with the situation we have, not what we wish it to be,” one senior official said. Let’s hope the administration understands what that situation is.

President Obama is in a difficult position. He under pressure to speak out more and take a tougher line with Iran, as Senator McCain has. But the main issue is not whether the election was stolen or not, but what it reveals about Ayatollah Khamenei’s hold on power.

If we respond with our own saber-rattling, this is more likely to inflame the situation than ever before.

Under Khamenei’s leadership, the Revolutionary Guard has become more powerful and taken over parts of the economy. The disputed election suggests that Khamanei’s position has become weaker as the public distaste for Ahmadinejad’s policies has grown. If we respond with our own saber-rattling, this is more likely to inflame the situation than ever before. A strong dictator can be passive in the face of aggression and still survive in power. But a weak dictator must respond forcibly to every threat to his rule.

Read more…


Let Protesters Know the U.S. Cares

Mehdi Khalaji

Mehdi Khalaji is a visiting fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Only before the June 12 elections could I have agreed with President Obama’s statement on Tuesday that “the difference between Ahmadinejad and Moussavi in terms of their actual policies may not be as great as has been advertised.”

President Obama should make it clear in his public statements that there is a big difference between a President Ahmadinejad and a President Moussavi.

What is happening these days in Iran has little to do with Mir Hussein Moussavi’s policies or background. What matters now for the Iranians participating in the daily demonstrations, even those who did not vote or voted for the other reformist candidate, Mehdi Karroubi, is not Mr. Moussavi’s agenda as he expressed during his campaign but rather what he represents: the Iranian people’s resentment of the militarization of the government, the humiliation and isolation of the nation on the world stage.

Despite Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being the one who has the final say on the Islamic Republic’s foreign, nuclear and military policies, Mr. Moussavi, in his televised debates before the election, criticized the government’s economic agenda and political and cultural suppression. He also challenged Iran’s foreign polices and President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s inflammatory statements about the decline of the U.S. and the annihilation of Israel.

Read more…


Let’s Just Watch

Tamim Ansary

Tamim Ansary is the author of “Destiny Disrupted: A History of the World Through Islamic Eyes” and the memoir “West of Kabul, East of New York.”

Pushing Iran makes Iran push back, especially when the push comes from America. Stepping back from Iran lets Iran’s own internal debates emerge and shape events. In the eighties, America’s (alleged) support for Iraq in its bloody war with Iran paid America no dividends. It only helped Iran’s religious hardliners rally their masses and consolidate their grip.

At the moment, Iran is going through a convulsion generated by its own issues.

In the nineties, with Western influence purged from Iranian discourse and Islam unchallenged as the doctrine of the state, Iranians began to debate Khomeinism, and “reformist” currents emerged, culminating in Khatami’s 1997 victory.

But in 2003, following from the events of 9/11, the Bush Administration sent troops into Iraq and spoke of forcing regime change in Iran, sparking resentiments that helped Ahmadinejad win the presidency in 2005. During his term, continued threats to Iran’s sovereignty only built popular support in Iran for a nuclear weapons program.

America has a definite interest in the outcome of the Iranian election, but we promote that interest best by doing least. Iran is going through a convulsion generated by its own issues. Reformists such as Mousavi are not pro-Western stalking horses coming out of hiding but Muslims with a dissenting yet still Islamic vision of where their country ought to go—and as such they might succeed.

Read more…

Comments are no longer being accepted.

Hey Jim, yes, lets wrap Moussavi in Bunting and give him one of those Uncle Sam top hats. At present, the protesters seem to be doing well without our “help”. The moment we endorse them, they have lost their legitimacy. Let me guess, these were the same people on the right who figured out the best way to handle Iraq and gave us “freedom fries.” No thanks, you can keep your advice, better let those with a few functional neurons do the thinking from now on. I’m sure you have something better to do like mow your lawns.

By the way, I hope that McCain is just in his dotage, I would hope that his comments on Iran today are not made from a sane position. He was after all alive when Ike and Kermit installed the Shah, great move by republicans, past and present.

Catherine, Chicago June 17, 2009 · 7:51 pm

No, he should not. He should have kept that comment about Mousavi to himself as well.

Many people accused George Bush I of being a wimp and a coward for not speaking out when the Soviet Union was crumbling. Smart people saw he was doing exactly the right thing, keeping his hands off and his mouth shut. Had he done otherwise, the whole process would have been threatened. Better to do well than to talk well.

The people of Iran are smart enough to figure out Obama’s position.

Why is so hard to say, “The United States stands for freedom and democracy”?

Obama is so concerned with being politically correct, that his approach to foreign diplomacy make him both spineless and naive. He is an embarrassment to the American people. Surely as someone who is supposedly adept with words he could find the right thing to say to demonstrate support for those Iranians who are seeking
more than just overturning a fraudulent vote, but a true domocracy for their country.

Looks to me as though Obama is balancing it right.

Got squid?

Why is so hard to say, “The United States stands for freedom and democracy”?

Bcos GWB truly does not mean it. Freedom and democracy if not accompanied by pro-Americanism does not sync with GWB neocon gang’s “The American Century” vision.

“The United States stands for pro-Americanism at the expense of all else” is what GWB really mean.

What do the Iranian people really want? A fiery, controversial
president, who takes orders from the Mullahs? Or a less
confrontational, more down to earth guy, who takes his
orders from the Mullahs?
Or maybe something different?

Ahmidjinihad well represents the real government of Iran. Had Mr. Mousavi assumed the presidential role, the world would more likely be fooled about Iran’s international intentions, thus be less likely to take actions necessary to combat Iranian terrorism and WMD pursuit.

The violent suppression we read about today is an important reminder of two facts:
a) Khameini’s regime has no regard for human rights, therefor cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
b) Iran is full of people that want to have a modern nation and they are completely disenfranchised from meaningful participation in their country’s political structure.

It would be unwise to take an official stand – aligning with the opposition or the incumbent – at this point for there as yet remains to be offered conclusive proof of fraudulent practices that would’ve changed the outcome. Granted, we all suspect such has occurred, but on an international stage the best thing for the administration to do right now is condemn the violence against protesters, the human rights violations and any attempts to cheat democracy. If the election was not free and fair, the truth will come out eventually – as we have seen time and time again across the world. The only hope is that more lives are not lost till then, but sadly that more often than not is the course things follow.

Heck no. We don’t exactly have a good track record supporting democracy in Iran. There was a democracy there in the 1950s and we (the CIA) helped overthrow it when they wanted their fair share of the oil profits. The dictator we helped install (the Shah) ruled brutally until the Islamic revolution. That revolution may have never happened if not for our actions.

For those who insist we speak out, why aren’t the same people urging us to speak out against Eqypt or Saudi Arabia or Pakistan? I still remember Bush praising “President” Musharef, the military dictator of Pakistan, who should have been rightly called “General,” not President.

The last time we made assumptions about a Middle Eastern country, we ended up angering millions of people and got ourselves in a war. And it turned out the assumptions were wrong. While I strongly believe that Iranians deserve a recount (and a better leader), I think Obama’s decision to remain cautious is wise diplomacy.

The US should stay out of this, the Iranian protesters are doing a fine job and any endorsement by the US government will only serve to give Iranian Islamists ammunition against them.

And Ahmadinejad is bussing people from all over Iran on a daily basis into Tehran because????????????

Pres Obama need not state the obvious; that he is pro democracy. What we have are those with the usual American mindset who constantly want to rail on about how great democracy is and why others should adhere to it which is no different a view for going to Iraq or why Europeans explorers over ran the American Indian be cause they were seen as naive ( a word used by many to continually describe Obama and most likely by whites) or the Spaniards thinking that everyone should believe in Jesus Christ and hence killed many in the Americas to make it so. Same narrow mindedness used by related folk to impose their “beliefs” on others just a different time and place.

Even when the pres said the little he did the US was still criticized by the Iranian govt. When the dust settles and we can, maybe, better see the results then its time to talk out loud.. For now its best to observe and see what happens in order to know what can be used for future talks with Iran. And it is they and not the USA pres who need to make things clear not the other way around. And if they don’t the election will be another thing to keep in mind if and when the talks begin.

The situation in Iran is no where near over and anything can happen. If the Berlin wall can fall then why not the Iranian govt? Be it now or after the so called investigation re voter fraud takes place or sometime there after.

People will make the right choice in Iran.

In part, this must be an Obama effect in Iran. Five days and counting. Iran apparently has been a pressure cooker simmering on the stove for quite a while. Now the lid has come off. And one of the cooks in the kitchen is Barack Obama.

Of course, this is about an election. But if George Bush were still president, the Iranians would have hunkered down under demeaning criticism from the man who called the country evil. But Obama went to Cairo and took the lid off the pressure cooker. Now the pot is freely boiling.

Support for the present regime in Iran comes appears mainly to come from poor people responding to Ahmadinejad’s populist rhetoric. But the Iranian youth and the educated people of the country have responded (in part) to Obama’s opening, to his declaration that America is not their enemy, that America wants to get along with Iran. They want to respond to his opening.

They’ve had enough with the present Iranian regime that has isolated Iran made their nation a near-pariah in the world. Let’s hope the Iranian green “revolution” brings the new growth of a Spring of Freedom!

The United States should just let this play out on its own terms. We should not give anyone the opportunity to say that this is a repeat of 1953.

Sometimes powerful and effective American leadership (in international affairs) is exhibited by not saying anything. American silence, at times, can send a loud and clear signal to the rest of the world.

The Iranians can handle this. Just give them a chance.

M. Ray Arvand
New York, NY

An open letter to the government of Iran:

You are now issuing pronouncements that America is interfering in your country. You need to know that it is not America that is affecting your country: it is freedom that is touching your country. These people, young and old, who are cheering and chanting in your streets tonight that the election has been stolen are concerned about something even more fundamental than who has just been elected to the office of president. They are saying: we are ready to contribute, and you are saying ‘no’.

For whatever reason freedom and fairness are now visiting your land, it is deceptive and fundamentally dishonest to pretend your people have no intrinsic interest in living lives free of coercion and repression, that these impulses have some foreign origin. America does not so much promote freedom in other lands and cultures as it reminds others around the world that their longings are not crazy. Many governments and cultures around the world — including, to an extent, yours — wish to snuff out the natural human feelings of joy, openness, and creativity that we all have tasted sometime in our lives. Instead, these overseers wish to impose social stability, regardless of its rigidity. As you realize, these forces now on your streets scarcely value the preservation of essentially aristocratic hierarchies of power and their justification of old traditional prejudices, if doing so only avoids uncertainty. They are willing and eager to celebrate their aliveness, their optimism for your country.

You are right to feel concerned that freedom’s breath has infatuated your people. Even in America many fear freedom. They may say quite the opposite, but any even brief study of American politics and society will show how ambivalent the American people often are regarding freedom. Certainly some of that ambivalence you share.

We all want security, and as a species seem quite willing to trade our freedom and spontaneity for it. Only our children can see how bankrupt that arrangement is. In this, they are our salvation.

So it is no surprise that young people, now awakened in your country, so easily make you and your authority nervous, and evoke a repressive mindset from you. Yet there is in this moment an invitation for you to respond differently, to accept what is happening as an opportunity to deepen your wisdom as leaders, and thereby help your nation grow as it so much wants to. This will require you to listen to those voices in your streets, not just the ones celebrating the apparent victory of the incumbent, but also those who quite often themselves only vaguely can articulate their vision. Wise leaders nourish the expression of vision. From such seeds can arise many blessings, both for those who enable their growth as well as for those who have the energy to actualize them. Such leadership does not relish suppression. Rather, it strives to find a meaningful place for all expression.

So the task that is before you is to channel the enthusiasm that is washing your country today into moving your nation and your culture closer to the wonderful society you claim is your birthright and heritage, one that could be the envy of the world. Of course your problem is no different than elsewhere, including America, in that you have many kinds of people living within your borders. And as elsewhere, those different peoples have different goals and aims. The question is: how to achieve a harmonious society containing all these different peoples?

It seems Iran today has been given the opportunity to contribute to man’s understanding, to add to our knowledge but from within a world view quite different from America’s. Iran’s task is obvious, because it is the same task being asked of every group of people the world over, namely, how to reduce injustice and give more people a sense of hope and purpose, and real prosperity. We who live elsewhere and certainly the people within your country all wish you great success.

I think Obama is making the right decision. Even if we don’t like it, even if we think it is unfair, we have let Iran take care of Iran’s problems. I think whoever said that if we step in we will take away the protesters legitimacy has a strong point. Right now the people of Iran are speaking up for something they believe in, and they are not giving up. That’s a great thing!

A good example of “Divide and rule”
When will the Iranians learn?

Something the Republicans seem to forget, and something that they are generally unbothered by even when they remember it, is that we Americans don’t have the facts.

We had no observers on the ground. Nobody did. If we stand up now and insist that the election was a fraud (which, I know, I know, it was), the extremists in Iran will ask, rather pointedly, “how the heck do you know?” And we’ll shuffle our feet and look down at the floor and mutter something about human rights.

President Obama is handling this (almost) perfectly (I agree with an above commenter that the comment about Moussavi’s “policies” was a mistake, a mistake the White House has since walked back).

Bottom line: as is the usual case in the Middle East, we don’t really have any idea what’s going on. Obama gets this, and he’s emphasizing the importance of free speech and free elections while conceding that he doesn’t know Iran better than Iranians. Novel idea, that.

Free people choose freedom when given the choice, and we shouldn’t be so arrogant as to think that they’re incapable of making that choice without us. It seems that Iranians have a deep, protective love of their ability to choose, and that anybody who denies it to them does so at his peril.

…lest we forget, the last time we stuck our nose in Iran, we ousted the democratically elected government and re-installed a monarchy. Just sayin’.

By not forcefully coming out in favor of a transparent recount of the votes (rather than in favor of one side or the other), America is signaling that it is in a weak position herself. That does not bode well for any future negotiations with either possible leader.

No.

The Mullahs will fumble….

Let them hang themselves.

The ’79 Revolution took 18 mo’s.

Deaths, strikes, rage, collapse…all will come.

Ken has got it perfectly right (Comment #1) — DITTO.

Good to see so much sensibility here (in the posts I mean).

Mr. Phillips has a rather short view on politics and history. He seems to be viewing this whole thing as if the whole issue revolved around the US, and if we just supported the opposition all the bad people we don’t like would melt away and Iran will suddenly be a place of rainbows, gumdrops, and pure liberal democracy.

He seems to forget that if Iran has a historical basis to be paranoid about interention by any other country, it’s the US. The CIA worked to overthrow a popular Iranian government 56 years ago (and that is not a paranoid delusion). The US supplied arms to the Iraqis in the long and bitter Iraq-Iran War. The US has repeatedly condemned Iran for decades in domestic politics and made few moves to improve the relationship with Iran.

Is Iran paranoid about the US and the CIA? Absolutely. Is most of this paranoia unfounded today? Probably. However, just because it is unfounded does not mean it does not exist. I’ve known people who were paranoid that Obama was going to turn the US into something like South Africa, an unfounded accusation but it doesn’t mean the fear wasn’t real in their minds. If we act to openly support the opposition, all we will do is give credence to the accusations by the Ahmadinejad side that the Moussavi side is just a puppet of the US/CIA, and that the whole thing was just a giant conspriacy.

The best course of action right now is to wait. Denounce violence against peaceful protests, but do not cast your self with one side or the other. You cannot see a clear path until the “dust” (or should I say sand storm!) settles.